Replies to post #14 on A few posts from the turnip patch

[Kayaker]

Zeev's general market musings [#board-1125]

April 2000 - December 2003.

Dec 31/03 · EPC ratio while under .4 is not yet critical - #msg-2027188
Dec 29/03 · Sentiments getting bearish here - #msg-2018646
Dec 28/03 · Low P/C ratio is not enough - #msg-2008854
Dec 28/03 · Dow and S&P already have yielded breakout - #msg-2008740
Dec 27/03 · Big guys on the SPX are going to take out 1100 - #msg-2007355
Dec 27/03 · Until March, containment zone raised to 1903/18 - #msg-2006573
Dec 25/03 • Forecast for 2004 - #msg-2000425
Dec 23/03 · 2056/2093 is still my target for now - #msg-1991350
Dec 23/03 · Doubt a serious reversal before end of year - #msg-1990039
Dec 23/03 · Still expect run above 2000 early in the year - #msg-1989264
Dec 22/03 · Excursion under 1900 is still possible - #msg-1983349
Dec 22/03 · Close above 1955 should restart run above 2000 - #msg-1982563
Dec 19/03 · A test of 1887 or so is feasible before Christmas - #msg-1969959
Dec 16/03 · 1887-1895 should provide mild support - #msg-1947089
Dec 16/03 · At worst, meandering will be over by christmas - #msg-1944170
Dec 14/03 · Tomorrow will resolve the question for the short term - #msg-1933362
Dec 14/03 · December, January, again (2093, not 1093)- #msg-1931506
Dec 14/03 · Monday 1955, last week was December low - #msg-1931401 #msg-1931445
Dec 12/03 · Original scenario has a little more credence - #msg-1926981
Dec 12/03 · Odds slightly higher we go down in next two weeks - #msg-1924608
Dec 12/03 · Next week, don't think we take out 1955 - #msg-1924249
Dec 12/03 · Close above 1955, December low was 1887 - #msg-1921117 #msg-1921158
Dec 11/03 · 50% chance that yesterday's low was December low - #msg-1919475
Dec 11/03 · Before Christmas, a low, then 3 to 5 weeks up - #msg-1917097
Dec 10/03 · One fork indicates today's low is December low - #msg-1907184
Dec 09/03 • The roadmap going into January - #msg-1901429
Dec 08/03 · Still looking for a local low on Wednesday - #msg-1893315
Dec 06/03 · Breach of 1842 could bring cascade down to 1757 - #msg-1883601
Dec 06/03 · Target of 2056 in January - #msg-1883571
Dec 06/03 · Expect sub 1900 which should not breach 1842/50 - #msg-1883380
Dec 05/03 · Minor reversal could occur 12/10 - #msg-1879567
Dec 04/03 · 1850 will surely come - #msg-1869349
Dec 03/03 · Still have 1842/50 as a target - #msg-1864375
Dec 03/03 · Low is shifting probably between the 10th and the 17th - #msg-1862860
Dec 03/03 · Expect a sharp retrenchment; about 150 Naz points - #msg-1861286
Dec 01/03 · Sticking with scenario, a relapse well under 1900 - #msg-1848764
Nov 28/03 · A relatively significant local low on 12/10 - #msg-1835643
Nov 25/03 · Between 1850 & 1950 until Christmas - #msg-1822437 Erratum - #msg-1823478
Nov 24/03 · No 2k before year end - #msg-1816416
Nov 24/03 · 1960 in the morning, if not, 1915 could still happen - #msg-1815337
Nov 23/03 · Outside chance of a marginal lower low; < 1878 - #msg-1809511
Nov 21/03 · 1880 to 1935, a narrow meandering range - #msg-1804669
Nov 20/03 · Window for low between 1865 and 1880 is open till Tuesday - #msg-1795430
Nov 18/03 · 2000 for early next year and maybe much more - #msg-1782673
Nov 18/03 · Indicators are signaling a close bottom here - #msg-1782594
Nov 18/03 · May get a lower low, but it is close enough - #msg-1781065
Nov 18/03 · Likely no lower than 1865/80 - #msg-1778276
Nov 17/03 · Bottom could be anywhere from 1842 to about 1885 - #msg-1771698
Nov 15/03 · 1923/30 is weak support, I expect it to be taken - #msg-1763918
Nov 12/03 · Bounce allowed for as much as 60 Naz points - #msg-1742609
Nov 12/03 · Probability of 2000 before end of year is low - #msg-1742448 #msg-1744302
Nov 12/03 · We are having the mid week bounce according to plan - #msg-1741888
Nov 11/03 · The bounce is much weaker than I expected - #msg-1731149
Nov 10/03 · A move to 1923/30, a bounce, and then a continued decline - #msg-1728058
Nov 10/03 · Still have the decline contained in the 1842/65 area - #msg-1726554 #msg-1726463
Nov 07/03 · No change, still a low near expiry - #msg-1714901
Nov 06/03 · Don't have enough data; retrenchment to 1865 or 1842 - #msg-1708124
Nov 06/03 · Still expect a relapse into expiry - #msg-1702261 #msg-1702342
Nov 03/03 · Likely the next retrenchment will be shallow - #msg-1685134
Nov 03/03 · Scenario is still on - #msg-1682698
Nov 03/03 · Do not see 2000 before the end of the year - #msg-1682565
Oct 31/03 • Preliminary roadmap to 2005 - #msg-1670863 #msg-1681430
Oct 31/03 · Just some 100 or so Naz points to at worst 1842 - #msg-1669648
Oct 31/03 · We have reached (within 10 points) the target for the top - #msg-1668484
Oct 30/03 · Parameters are not in place for a major top - #msg-1664873 #msg-1665408
Oct 30/03 · High in next 1½ days, the high till late December - #msg-1664216
Oct 30/03 · No 'run for the hills' before the end of the year - #msg-1664123
Oct 30/03 · 100/120 Naz point decline over about three weeks - #msg-1663962
Oct 29/03 · November swoon bottom 1842, might raise to 1865 - #msg-1653681 #msg-1655762
Oct 28/03 · Window for new recovery high is closing - #msg-1650620 #msg-1651245
Oct 27/03 · Low coming up near the Nov. expiry - #msg-1641600
Oct 26/03 · Current model still shows a nasty 2005 - #msg-1639797
Oct 26/03 · Between 1842 and 1967 for the next six weeks - #msg-1639220 #msg-1639287
Oct 24/03 • Next potential target is 2056 - #msg-1636372
Oct 24/03 · Close enough to 1842 to signal end of retrenchment - #msg-1633425 #msg-1633382
Oct 23/03 · About six weeks of a relatively narrow trading range - #msg-1624824
Oct 22/03 · 1865 will probably hold in the next two days - #msg-1623426
Oct 22/03 · Retrenchment, then a resumption of the bull move - #msg-1621635
Oct 22/03 · 1842 or another bounce from 1900 - #msg-1621303
Oct 22/03 · 1842 as the target, nothing really severe - #msg-1617727
Oct 21/03 · General market retrenching a bit from here on - #msg-1614670
Oct 20/03 · Clear sailing and only occasional retrenches contained at 1842 - #msg-1609139
Oct 20/03 · Could go to the recent high before another mild retrenchment - #msg-1609074
Oct 20/03 · Short term, a new recovery high on the Nasdaq - #msg-1606423
Oct 18/03 · Assuming yesterday's rout was option related - #msg-1601818
Oct 17/03 · If close under 1915, we may continue down for next 2 days - #msg-1597916
Oct 16/03 · Pull back (to 1842 or so), November or early December - #msg-1592424
Oct 16/03 · Next week, possible relapse, should end by Wednesday - #msg-1588364
Oct 13/03 · This week 1940 should be taken out - #msg-1570621 #msg-1572935
Oct 11/03 · From here, 1940 and then above 2000 - #msg-1566143
Oct 11/03 · Potential top target of 2390 - #msg-1565588
Oct 11/03 · Worst case, a retreat to 1842 (1840 should be 1940) - #msg-1565373
Oct 11/03 · Bullish, just a little more cautious - #msg-1565217
Oct 10/03 · 1940 target reached yesterday might be high for 1-2 weeks - #msg-1562279
Oct 10/03 · Possible first thrust above 1940 later next week - #msg-1560094
Oct 09/03 · Not getting into bear mode - #msg-1556323
Oct 08/03 · 1940 within a week - #msg-1551377
Oct 04/03 · A breach of 1811 would be bearish - #msg-1535696
Oct 04/03 · Expect this move to hold until June, if not the elections - #msg-1535542
Oct 04/03 · Implications of N of new highs on the Nasdaq - #msg-1535292
Oct 04/03 · The next recession will be consumer led - #msg-1535256
Oct 04/03 · INTC - top of the next cycle, late next year - #msg-1535245
Oct 04/03 · Stocks to buy, and their targets - #msg-1535140
Oct 04/03 · Good chance to see Nasdaq 2400 in next 9 to 12 months - #msg-1534971
Oct 04/03 · Bullish; 1757 is off the map for now - #msg-1534827
Oct 03/03 · Turned back bullish on 1860 taken - #msg-1531425 #msg-1531237
Oct 02/03 · Still bearish, 1842 might have been it for now - #msg-1528580
Oct 01/03 · At risk of going to 1757 and then even under 1700 - #msg-1522782
Oct 01/03 · Still expect a test of 1757 in the next two weeks - #msg-1521790
Oct 01/03 · BRCM and CCMP presaging a drop in the SOX - #msg-1521713
Sep 30/03 · Minor bounce from 1757, could be the end of this decline - #msg-1516613
Sep 29/03 · Back into the bear den - #msg-1512098 #msg-1512169
Sep 26/03 · Three critical areas ahead, 1940, 2163 and 2238 - #msg-1504083
Sep 26/03 · In a cyclical bull that could last till the middle or late next year - #msg-1503924
Sep 26/03 · Bullish very short term, bearish in the intermediate term - #msg-1503121 #msg-1503269
Sep 26/03 · A bull for a few days - #msg-1500478
Sep 24/03 · Monday...well under 1800 - #msg-1491081 #msg-1492233 #msg-1497291
Sep 20/03 · Close to 1940, then start down - #msg-1471687
Sep 18/03 · Guessing a top within 30 Naz points from here - #msg-1462440
Sep 17/03 · Question is, will such a retrench stop above 1757 or not - #msg-1457055
Sep 17/03 · Next decline, if it comes, may be quite nasty - #msg-1456427
Sep 10/03 · Possible that another run will precede the actual decline - #msg-1422697
Sep 10/03 · No major stop until about 1715 (maybe 1757) - #msg-1422457
Sep 10/03 · 1715 is my first target, the ultimate low for now is 1640 - #msg-1421744
Sep 08/03 • Still in the camp that has 2005 as a nasty bear market - #msg-1412723
Sep 08/03 · Right now, I have about a 300 Naz points retreat from the top - #msg-1412635
Sep 06/03 · Still very cautious and worried for the next 6 to 8 weeks - #msg-1405527
Sep 05/03 · Expecting strong end of year and 2004; right now we are stretched - #msg-1400253
Sep 03/03 · We need a healthy and maybe even scary retrenchment - #msg-1392780
Sep 03/03 · Model has a low in the late September early October - #msg-1392511 #msg-1392562
Sep 02/03 · Volume is weak, but the new high list is expanding - #msg-1386649
Sep 02/03 · For a serious correction we will have to see expansion of new lows - #msg-1384485
Aug 30/03 · Current optimism will soon exceed the optimism in February of 2000 - #msg-1380193
Aug 30/03 • An investing primer - #msg-1379694
Aug 29/03 · Looks like a "set up" to me; going out relatively heavy in cash - #msg-1378252
Aug 28/03 · Target low on the Naz of 950 and on the Dow at 6000 - #msg-1374737
Aug 28/03 · Mounting chorus of bulls; plan calls for extreme caution - #msg-1374666
Aug 27/03 · Still within the window of 10 days (ending 8/29) where a top should occur - #msg-1369724
Aug 26/03 · Excessive call buying, excess optimism - #msg-1364830
Aug 23/03 · Short term the 1640 area should be considered as major support - #msg-1354505
Aug 23/03 · Yesterday morning, an "almost" run for the hills signal - #msg-1354294 #msg-1354442
Aug 21/03 · All indicate the market is very vulnerable here and dangerous - #msg-1346177
Aug 19/03 · Severity of the autumn decline (into the 1400s?) - #msg-1336676
Aug 18/03 · New highs was impressive....volume, however stinks - #msg-1335737
Aug 18/03 · September is when more pronounced weakness should appear - #msg-1335422
Aug 15/03 · P/C ratio indicates a top within 10 trading days - #msg-1329089
Aug 15/03 · Slow decline to start next week and accelerate as we go - #msg-1328425
Aug 13/03 · Still waiting to see expansion in Naz new lows beyond 40 - #msg-1321855
Aug 13/03 · Maybe a "to the hills" call within days - #msg-1321491
Aug 13/03 · Top of the range in the Naz here; maybe another 15/25 points - #msg-1320140
Aug 12/03 · There is a little room for further advance here - #msg-1317085
Aug 12/03 · Later on, I still think we creep up toward that 1700 level - #msg-1315499
Aug 08/03 · Current target is around 1400 - #msg-1304912
Aug 06/03 · Internal parameters suggest meandering in 1625/1725 range - #msg-1295648
Aug 06/03 · Resistance at 1700 expected - #msg-1294920
Aug 06/03 · Very short term I still expect a bounce back to the 1700 or so area - #msg-1294385
Aug 05/03 · Tomorrow, a local turn date, so expect 1625 to take longer - #msg-1290569
Aug 05/03 · We are on our way to test the lower part of the range 1625/1725 - #msg-1289004
Aug 04/03 · We may go within the next week or two to test the 1625 or so area - #msg-1283286
Jul 31/03 · General scenario is still meandering for the next few weeks - #msg-1270154
Jul 29/03 · If the market is going to mount a solid run, it will be next year - #msg-1259631
Jul 21/03 · A unique precious metal hedge proposition - #msg-1230445
Jul 17/03 · September we start more sharply down - #msg-1217194
Jul 17/03 · You need to see 40 new lows on the Naz, and more than one day - #msg-1216397
Jul 16/03 · Starting next week, we may go down with a little more vigor - #msg-1212478
Jul 13/03 · Eventually, interest rates are going to rise and slam the stock market - #msg-1197513
Jul 12/03 · Wednesday, a turn date, either a local high or a local low - #msg-1196044
Jul 11/03 · A cycle low between Tuesday and Wednesday around noon - #msg-1194730
Jul 08/03 · Model postulates an actual sharp decline into the Autumn - #msg-1181693
Jul 07/03 · Don't get carried away with the euphoria - #msg-1177921
Jul 07/03 · Rest of the week more problematic after a possible surge to 1750 - #msg-1177207
Jul 04/03 · I think AGM, SKX, ECL and even TLM around here - #msg-1170243
Jul 03/03 · Almost all my indicators point to major risk here - #msg-1167261
Jul 02/03 · Most of the ebullience for this week was spent - #msg-1161783
Jul 01/03 · Thursday and Monday will be mildly up, but after that, watch out - #msg-1158415
Jun 27/03 · A low in the third quarter - #msg-1146395
Jun 25/03 · Normal crazy post announcement up and down ending down - #msg-1138735
Jun 22/03 · Short term, the upside momentum is somewhat damaged - #msg-1130320
Jun 20/03 · I have next week down quite hard, maybe even to that 1575 - #msg-1127641
Jun 18/03 · I think we are being set up for a major retrenchment - #msg-1118982 #msg-1118633
Jun 18/03 · Still have the 1500 ±20 on the map for EOM - #msg-1117892
Jun 16/03 · Low P/C ratio into the close, it may signal the start of a possible retreat - #msg-1111312
Jun 16/03 · Once the BPCOMPQ trounces its own 14 DMA... - #msg-1110268
Jun 13/03 · A rapid decline (SOX), or the formation of a right shoulder - #msg-1106125
Jun 13/03 · I don't think it is the end of the down - #msg-1104937
Jun 11/03 · Right now, I prefer to stick to the game plan - #msg-1097456
Jun 11/03 · 1575 is probably not in the card in the next two days - #msg-1097221
Jun 10/03 · I think that these levels are going to be the top for this week - #msg-1091505
Jun 10/03 · Long and short candidates - #msg-1090331
Jun 10/03 · By the end of the month, we should probably see 1500 ±20 - #msg-1090091
Jun 10/03 · For this week, 1575 ±5 as probable low target - #msg-1088981
Jun 05/03 · While March 11 was a local low, it did not have signs of a major low - #msg-1080868
Jun 05/03 · We are going to such extremes here in many indicators - #msg-1080581
Jun 04/03 · I would treat retrenchments as buying opportunities - #msg-1074173
Jun 04/03 · Still the 1500 plus minus 20 area - #msg-1073903
Jun 04/03 · Breadth has been excellent for weeks now - #msg-1073730
Jun 03/03 · An indication of the beginning of deterioration - #msg-1069406
Jun 02/03 · Too many of my indicators are very stretched - #msg-1064199
Jun 02/03 · Best candidate [for a low] is the Wednesday of expiry week, or 6/18 - #msg-1062026 #msg-1062138
May 31/03 · 1500 ±20 should serve as very strong support - #msg-1059211
May 30/03 • Back in my bear suit...a 100+ naz points retrenchment - #msg-1056591 #msg-1056875 #msg-1058518
May 28/03 · A top occurs often at a maximum in new highs - #msg-1049155
May 28/03 · Internals point to a bearish stance being still premature here - #msg-1045585
May 27/03 · Volume is expanding, new highs are expanding, new lows are contracting - #msg-1044977
May 27/03 · I fear we do mild retrenchments and the dips are bought for now - #msg-1044483
May 23/03 · Most likely model has 1465 holding on retrenches for a little while at least - #msg-1036744
May 22/03 · Right now the nassacre is off the table - #msg-1034529 #msg-1034538
May 21/03 · No expansion of new lows, a temporary bullish sign - #msg-1026974
May 21/03 · Tomorrow and Friday up, next Tuesday or Wednesday as the top - #msg-1026880 #msg-1029707
May 20/03 · A short term relapse that should be over by tomorrow - #msg-1025407 #msg-1025426
May 19/03 · Right now, I have no choice but to stay neutral - #msg-1021506
May 19/03 · Wednesday, a bottoming action and going up into Friday - #msg-1019687
May 16/03 · A tentative top next Wednesday - #msg-1012249
May 15/03 · A bear call is still a little premature - #msg-1008521
May 12/03 · Nasdaq, a new four month high, holding above the 200 EMA - #msg-994866
May 10/03 · Equity P/C ratio - #msg-992402 #msg-992623
May 09/03 · Here at 1520 the new highs are disappointing - #msg-990878
May 09/03 · Still think there is a higher likelihood that this move will fail - #msg-989059
May 08/03 · Right now I have possible bounces from 1465 and 1414 - #msg-985665
May 07/03 · Indices and number of new highs, equity put/call ratio, BPCOMPQ - #msg-984980 #msg-985029
May 07/03 · Very unusual for a bear market to end with lack of negative extremes - #msg-984585
May 04/03 · Change back to full fledge bear requires 1391 to be breached - #msg-975089
May 04/03 · It is still not worth changing the neutral position - #msg-974628
May 04/03 • I have not turned bullish, but I am now neutral - #msg-974596
May 04/03 · First retrenchment will probably be bought with a "vengeance" - #msg-974145
May 04/03 · Quite possible to have a blow off followed by a major decline - #msg-974047
May 02/03 · Stay away from the chips, I see them relapsing more than other sectors - #msg-972647
May 02/03 • May/June major decline postulated earlier got annulled - #msg-972578 #msg-972649
Apr 30/03 · The last times we had such a stellar month, it was followed by disaster - #msg-964928
Apr 29/03 · We are still under the "to the hills flag" - #msg-961944 #msg-962033
Apr 26/03 · If 1391 is breached, two very strong down weeks to follow - #msg-952523
Apr 25/03 · If 1432 does not hold, next bounce range is from around 1414 - #msg-951616
Apr 24/03 · July bottom was modified a short while ago to 1081 nominal - #msg-947647 See #msg-932539
Apr 24/03 · May take few weeks until the setup for a waterfall - #msg-947608
Apr 23/03 · If we do not breach 1390 and we continue to have improved internals... - #msg-945553
Apr 23/03 · The test will probably be holding 1390 on any retrenchment - #msg-945266
Apr 23/03 · A low in mid to late July with a possible retest in early October - #msg-944706
Apr 23/03 · Still have a major retrenchment to just under 1100 by mid July - #msg-943349 #msg-943459
Apr 22/03 · Still do not like the "colors" of this advance - #msg-940648
Apr 18/03 · I doubt that an expansion is going to happen - #msg-932519
Apr 18/03 · RSI on the BPCOMPQ well into bearish territory - #msg-932180
Apr 17/03 · A string of three consecutive down days soon here - #msg-930808
Apr 17/03 · Stretched as can be with stinking internals - #msg-929996 #msg-930781
Apr 16/03 · Once 1330 is taken out, it will be a waterfall - #msg-927261
Apr 15/03 · A slightly protracted period of grinding nowhere - #msg-924062
Apr 15/03 · This week, a range of 1360-1400 - #msg-922351
Apr 14/03 · The resolution, IMTO will be down - #msg-920461
Apr 12/03 · Breaking 1330 before this earning season is over - #msg-917402
Apr 12/03 · Staying with the timing of the Jan 25 scenario - #msg-917155
Apr 10/03 · I think we are being set up for a major decline - #msg-912910 #msg-912933
Apr 09/03 · Nazdaq in a range of 1330-1400 - #msg-910704 #msg-910971 (range correction) #msg-911329
Apr 09/03 · 1330, while a support, will falter rapidly - #msg-909835
Apr 08/03 · Once we break the 1375/80 or so area, I think we will break fast - #msg-906903
Apr 06/03 · For another two weeks or so we are probably in a trading range - #msg-900147
Apr 05/03 · Possibility of a cyclical bull - #msg-899283
Apr 03/03 · The internals are not strengthening that much - #msg-893649 #msg-893748
Apr 02/03 · Still have a breach of 1330 sometime this month - #msg-890966
Apr 02/03 · Volume and new high indicators are double edged sword - #msg-890115
Apr 02/03 · Rally looks better, new highs expanding - #msg-889225 #msg-889418 #msg-889837
Apr 02/03 · Real resistance is probably a little higher than 1400 - #msg-889171
Apr 01/03 · A grinding decline to the 1290/1300 area - #msg-887244 #msg-887286
Mar 31/03 · Between 1330 and 1370 - #msg-884086 #msg-884149
Mar 31/03 · Later in the week, the turnips have 1330 taken out - #msg-882399
Mar 31/03 · 1330/50 is still a bounce area - #msg-881663
Mar 29/03 · Positive elements are outweighed by many negative developments - #msg-879591
Mar 27/03 · Still have a "need" to see a first test of the 1330/50 area - #msg-875915
Mar 26/03 · Before the end of the week we will test 1330/50 area - #msg-872761
Mar 25/03 · The technical underpinnings of the recent run are poor - #msg-870615
Mar 25/03 · 1400 on the Naz as a potential mini barrier - #msg-869078
Mar 24/03 · A mild bump up from the 1330/50 area - #msg-867620
Mar 21/03 · The secular bear is far from over, IMTO - #msg-861993
Mar 21/03 · We are smack into the the January highs here - #msg-861541
Mar 21/03 · Danger for the bulls - #msg-860148
Mar 21/03 · The leadership is still poor - #msg-859260
Mar 20/03 · 1420/1440 area could be the target - #msg-858717
Mar 19/03 · The quality of the move is so bad and so thin - #msg-854900
Mar 19/03 · First bounce on the Naz should be in the 1330/40 area - #msg-854663
Mar 19/03 · New highs have not reached Febraury levels - #msg-852632
Mar 18/03 · Very short term we are due for a severe relapse - #msg-848998
Mar 17/03 · Sign of a cyclical bull - #msg-848728
Mar 17/03 · Expecting a low sometime in May - #msg-848081
Mar 17/03 · Still think that this bear is far from dead - #msg-848058
Mar 17/03 · You rarely get a major move without a solid capitulation - #msg-847424
Mar 15/03 · Results of the second quarter could result in strong Summer rally - #msg-842660
Mar 15/03 · A major bear, within that we get runs to the 200 DMA - #msg-842629 #msg-842645
Mar 15/03 · Nassacre is alive and well and now we should go into Phase II - #msg-842385
Mar 15/03 • We finished the first phase of this Nassacre last Wednesday - #msg-842045
Mar 14/03 · The hall mark of a turn is that the internals improve - #msg-840428 #msg-842021
Mar 14/03 · Bear suit still fully zipped - #msg-840394
Mar 14/03 · Expecting a close repeat of the late February chart - #msg-838497
Mar 14/03 · We may be looking at phase II - #msg-838462
Mar 13/03 · Without a GNT, there is no real bottom - #msg-837223
Mar 13/03 · I think that like late last month, this will prove to be distributory - #msg-837197
Mar 13/03 · A very dangerous market and my bear suit is fully zipped - #msg-835956
Mar 13/03 · By this time next week, we should be safely under 1260 - #msg-835255 #msg-836445
Mar 13/03 · No reason to remove bear suit - #msg-834688 #msg-835188
Mar 12/03 · Too late to engage in heavy shorting or put buying - #msg-833671
Mar 12/03 · We are not ready yet for more than a bounce to 1292/1302 - #msg-833592
Mar 12/03 · Either a two day ramp to 1292, or a breach of 1260 - #msg-831622
Mar 11/03 · Resistance most likely at 1292, maybe above 1300 - #msg-830992
Mar 10/03 · First support 1280, next support 1260/63 area - #msg-825751
Mar 08/03 · When war starts, a large bump which is heavily sold - #msg-822764
Mar 07/03 · 1292 and lower next week - #msg-820418
Mar 07/03 · If 1292 holds, a small bounce could occur - #msg-819122
Mar 06/03 · Surviving the emotions of trading - #msg-818571
Mar 05/03 · Apart from the delays, we are following the schedule - #msg-813989
Mar 04/03 · By late Thursday, any ramp started tomorrow will dissipate - #msg-812413
Mar 04/03 · Tomorrow...mild up day...resumption of the decline - #msg-810798
Mar 03/03 · A mild turn back up Wednesday afternoon - #msg-808219
Mar 03/03 · Think we will at least visit sub 1300 territory this week - #msg-808208
Mar 02/03 · Market behaving worse than mid January, post the 1/6 call - #msg-805950
Feb 28/03 · Could continue this distribution for another week - #msg-803388
Feb 28/03 • Extremely dangerous level here; reiterate "run to the hills" - #msg-802739
Feb 27/03 · Attack on Iraq could be delayed until close to April - #msg-800746
Feb 27/03 · Still in a very dangerous area here on the Naz - #msg-800400
Feb 25/03 · The great majority of the technical indicators are still bearish - #msg-794954
Feb 25/03 · Phase I may not have more than a week to 2½ to go - #msg-794927
Feb 25/03 · Not bullish here yet - #msg-794876
Feb 23/03 · Maybe we are now in the early March 2-3 week run - #msg-788682
Feb 23/03 · We often get these false breakouts - #msg-788657
Feb 23/03 · Could easily drop more than 25 on the Naz tomorrow - #msg-788430
Feb 23/03 · After mid-year, the surprise could be a cyclical bull move - #msg-788375
Feb 22/03 · End of Phase I is still 1197/1223 - #msg-787342
Feb 22/03 · IMTO, this is a classic bull trap - #msg-786780
Feb 20/03 · By the end of next week, we should be in full retreat - #msg-781704
Feb 19/03 · Just an oversold relief run - #msg-776993
Feb 18/03 · I think that by the end of the day tomorrow we will be red - #msg-775342
Feb 18/03 · How can one turn bullish? IMTO, it is a trap - #msg-775293
Feb 17/03 · Bear suit still fully zipped - #msg-772918
Feb 17/03 · Bet is that tomorrow we get our traditional G&C - #msg-772059
Feb 15/03 · Bet is that we are turned back from the 1321/35 area - #msg-768059
Feb 14/03 · By the end of the month we should be testing 1197/1223 - #msg-766889
Feb 14/03 · We have not had excess pessimism - #msg-765528
Feb 13/03 · The early March bounce topped at 1327 - #msg-764223
Feb 12/03 · The low 1200s will be reserved for later this month - #msg-760470
Feb 11/03 · Now 1263 will be less of an obstacle to additional declines - #msg-756957
Feb 10/03 · We need 3 phases: complacency, concern, panic selling - #msg-753915
Feb 10/03 · Options expiration, precipitous decline, breach of today's low - #msg-753579
Feb 10/03 · No end in sight until sentiment indicators blow - #msg-753274
Feb 10/03 · 1312 is possible - #msg-753176
Feb 10/03 · I think we continue lower than 1275 - #msg-752907
Feb 10/03 · Dark siders are back in the driver seat - #msg-752529
Feb 06/03 · At least another 80 Naz points before first leg done - #msg-743382
Feb 05/03 · Low opening seems to be the path of least resistance now - #msg-740615
Feb 05/03 · We are not even close to a turning point - #msg-740370
Feb 05/03 · Sox is already failing to make a new HOD - #msg-738755
Feb 05/03 · Running into top of the box, fear we will be hit hard after that - #msg-738695
Feb 05/03 · Top of the box is still 1332 ± 5 - #msg-737722
Feb 03/03 · Expecting a bounce from 1263 - #msg-733246
Feb 03/03 · More pain is due - #msg-733033
Feb 03/03 · 1332 ± 5 will serve as strong resistance - #msg-731598
Feb 03/03 · Still calling for sub 1300 before the week is out - #msg-731274
Jan 31/03 · A red close on the Naz and under 1300 by next week - #msg-726227
Jan 30/03 · By the end of next week, 1300 will be kissed "good bye" - #msg-724032
Jan 30/03 · Tomorrow might be a good time to get out of weak longs - #msg-723740
Jan 30/03 · We are still in a major downtrend - #msg-722458
Jan 29/03 · Using the equity P/C ratio - #msg-720389
Jan 29/03 · Still have that 1377 as the barrier here - #msg-719278
Jan 28/03 · VIX collapsed today, we may not reach bottom of 1357/77 - #msg-716112
Jan 26/03 • Dow hit list for 2003 - #msg-710613
Jan 26/03 · Breach 1327, then an anemic bounce to 1357/77 - #msg-710582
Jan 25/03 • New tentative schedule for the next five/six months - #msg-708849
Jan 25/03 · Target for the Dow first leg down was already exceeded - #msg-708735
Jan 24/03 · Now well into completing the first leg of the Nassacre - #msg-706195
Jan 23/03 · Each stock has its own ideal entry (on the dark side) - #msg-704222
Jan 23/03 · The window is open until about next Wednesday - #msg-703463 #msg-703478
Jan 23/03 · Strong Naz day...just an anemic bounce - #msg-703292
Jan 22/03 · Still expect a bounce back to just under 1400 - #msg-700192
Jan 22/03 · Expect a run to 1391/7 with a possible max at 1414 - #msg-698686
Jan 21/03 · Equity P/C ratio at .42; extremely bearish - #msg-696553
Jan 21/03 · A turn tomorrow maybe to the 1391/7 area - #msg-696433
Jan 19/03 · 1391/7 will be a very strong overhead resistance - #msg-691142
Jan 18/03 · This year, Nasdaq from 1521 down to around 950 - #msg-689755
Jan 18/03 · Bottom of the first leg lowered to 1198/1223 - #msg-689476
Jan 18/03 · A bounce before we continue this first leg down - #msg-689373
Jan 17/03 · Resuming the first leg of a major decline - #msg-686497
Jan 16/03 · BTK - #msg-685638 #msg-685666 #msg-686505
Jan 15/03 · Within two months, 1263 and maybe lower - #msg-681069
Jan 14/03 · Staggered retreat with some SOX companies still climbing - #msg-679170
Jan 14/03 · "Run for the Hills" stands - #msg-678044
Jan 12/03 · We may still reach just above 1500 on the Nasdaq - #msg-672791
Jan 10/03 · End of day: Still in bear suit; out with 68% cash - #msg-669945
Jan 10/03 · If we close above 1447, "run to the hills" is cancelled - #msg-668918
Jan 10/03 · Don't have us going past 1520 - #msg-668901
Jan 10/03 · Short term now calls for a neutral to bearish stance - #msg-668371
Jan 09/03 · Reiterating "Run for the Hills" call here - #msg-665700
Jan 09/03 · Expecting 1447 to hold as a top - #msg-665399
Jan 08/03 · Minor double top of 1447, possibly next week - #msg-662286
Jan 06/03 • Dividend taxation; no economic stimulus impact - #msg-658687
Jan 06/03 · Take about 100 Naz points off each of the targets - #msg-658572
Jan 06/03 · This run was extremely underwhelming - #msg-657702
Jan 06/03 · The risk is too high here - #msg-657407
Jan 06/03 • Here at 1424, the turnips are issuing a "To the hills call" - #msg-657325
Jan 06/03 · January rally may stall badly here - #msg-657151
Jan 04/03 · If volume picks up early next week, we should be doing fine - #msg-653236
Jan 04/03 · First battle probably 1391/7, then 1426 - #msg-653062
Jan 04/03 · In risk averse environment, money goes to Dow stocks - #msg-652969
Jan 01/03 • Forecast for first half of 2003 - #msg-647289
Dec 31/02 · Lack of conviction on the sell side - #msg-646388
Dec 31/02 · No 'run for the hills'; staying with low cash position - #msg-645731
Dec 30/02 · 1391/7 probably a barrier to any advance - #msg-644348 #msg-644297
Dec 28/02 · Still think seasonal influences will reestablish themselves - #msg-641639
Dec 27/02 · Still sticking to the seasonal theme of expected strength - #msg-640961
Dec 27/02 · Nasdaq at 1347, but new lows only hit 45 - #msg-640734
Dec 26/02 · Review of Nov-Jan forecasts; still bullish here - #msg-639614
Dec 26/02 · Pre invasion run, post invasion relapse - #msg-639193
Dec 25/02 · Reducing the January high to 1550 - #msg-638162
Dec 25/02 · Still expect mild bullish trend - #msg-638161
Dec 23/02 · A solid week behind schedule - #msg-636861
Dec 23/02 · Still expecting seasonal strength until January - #msg-636638
Dec 23/02 · Not as bullish here - #msg-636623
Dec 21/02 · Don't get too bearish here - #msg-634492
Dec 21/02 · Expecting a a short term run in the SOX - SI #reply-18361963
Dec 19/02 · Still quite bullish - #msg-631960
Dec 19/02 · Should run hard into the end of the year - #msg-631451
Dec 19/02 · After this week, party should start - #msg-631082
Dec 14/02 · Not going into a 1929 depression - #msg-624925
Dec 14/02 • Quite bullish for the next 4 weeks - #msg-624829
Dec 14/02 · Probably the end of the down move - #msg-624596
Dec 13/02 · Prior tops of significance - #msg-624115
Dec 13/02 · Sept 11/02 top (1347) is major line in the sand - #msg-624043
Dec 12/02 · May close above 1470 next week - #msg-622016
Dec 12/02 · Meandering next week as well - #msg-621945
Dec 09/02 · No major move up until next week - #msg-617611
Dec 09/02 · Next week mostly up - #msg-616871
Dec 09/02 · Very bullish stance here - #msg-616495
Dec 07/02 • Forecast for first half of 2003 - #msg-614572
Dec 07/02 · Not the time to short - #msg-614538
Dec 05/02 · Bullish here around 1400 on the Naz - #msg-611879
Dec 04/02 · Still expect backing and filling - #msg-610086
Dec 04/02 · Donning not so shiny pair of horns - #msg-609508
Dec 04/02 · 1378 is the next target - #msg-609399
Dec 03/02 · First two weeks of December - #msg-607798
Nov 30/02 · Possibility of 1940 high next year - #msg-602499
Nov 25/02 • Next 7 weeks II - #msg-598082
Nov 24/02 • Next 7 weeks I - #msg-595913
Nov 23/02 · SOX target of 184 in next six to nine months - SI #reply-18268199
Nov 02/02 · Expecting a retrenchment in the semis - SI #reply-18187796
Oct 10/02 · Expecting a strong move in the semis - SI #reply-18100366
Sep 07/02 • 950 target for the bottom - #msg-491054
Jan 27/02 • Forecasted turning points since early 2000 - SI #reply-16967797
Dec 29/01 • Market scenario for 2002 (long post) - SI #reply-16842549
Apr 23/00 • Prediction of bear market - SI #reply-13483082

Earlier posts from 2000-2002 - SI #reply-18338762

[Kayaker]

A few posts from the turnip patch (#board-1125).

January - February 2004.

Feb 26/04 · Could be we don't get the March drop - #msg-2469293
Feb 25/04 · Advance to be blocked in the 2045/50 area - #msg-2463330
Feb 25/04 · 950 is still in the long range forecast for 2005, or later - SI #reply-19848633
Feb 25/04 · Probably between 1980 and 2045 for a week - #msg-2462312
Feb 25/04 · Line in the sand is 2063 - #msg-2458097 #msg-2469945
Feb 24/04 · May have another 100 Naz points down - #msg-2451078
Feb 24/04 · 1970/80 area, then a bounce at least to 2015 - #msg-2445239
Feb 23/04 · Still going to 1900 or so before the end of March - #msg-2440617
Feb 23/04 · Should take out 2000 later in the week - #msg-2437562
Feb 21/04 · Bullish advisors are still at a nose bleeding level - #msg-2429178
Feb 21/04 · 12 core issues for potential OB entries - #msg-2429148
Feb 20/04 · Still have spring rally to above 2300 in the cards - #msg-2421164
Feb 19/04 · Still have 1880/1911 as bottom of March decline - #msg-2415762
Feb 18/04 · Now we have to take 2110 to be bullish again - #msg-2407513
Feb 18/04 · Model still calls for sub 1900 at least - #msg-2404116
Feb 17/04 · Watch for 2088/2110, see how much resistance it offers - #msg-2396967
Feb 16/04 · General map still calls for Feb/early March weakness - #msg-2385366
Feb 15/04 · SOX 460 to 480 in this late winter swoon - #msg-2382664
Feb 14/04 · Whole sequence may be delayed by a week - #msg-2377410
Feb 13/04 · Still sticking with the major road map - #msg-2373343
Feb 13/04 · By next week 2040 will yield - #msg-2369206
Feb 12/04 · Still in the same bearsuit - #msg-2364445
Feb 12/04 · 2044 will confirm the original sub 2000 - #msg-2360450
Feb 12/04 · Have to take 2041 for the downtrend to be reestablished - #msg-2357669
Feb 11/04 · If we close above 2110, a run to no more than 2163 - #msg-2356018
Feb 11/04 · Forced to raise the top of the band to 2110 - #msg-2354038
Feb 11/04 · EOD mark up, so not changing yet, might in the morning - #msg-2353428
Feb 11/04 · If NAZ closes above 2088, target 2163 - #msg-2351220 #msg-2352902
Feb 10/04 · Still bearish - #msg-2343389
Feb 10/04 · 2063 holding, once breached, flood gate should open - #msg-2342860
Feb 08/04 · Continued recovery, or have most of the bullets been spent? - #msg-2324450
Feb 07/04 · Nasty break August/September, recovery into election - #msg-2321447
Feb 07/04 · Swoon down, new high by early July or so - #msg-2321389
Feb 07/04 · Expect Naz to be some 150 points lower by March - #msg-2320559
Feb 07/04 · Double bottom on 3/8 and 3/24 under 1900 - #msg-2319917
Feb 06/04 · Don't expect us to close above 2088 in near future - #msg-2315458
Feb 06/04 · Still think this is just an oversold relief rally - #msg-2315181
Feb 06/04 · Bounce here expected, main model still in effect - #msg-2312240
Feb 06/04 · Resumption of the bull move is 2088 on a closing - #msg-2310117
Feb 06/04 · Best I can see here is a mild bounce to 2044 - #msg-2310036 #msg-2310183
Feb 03/04 · Starting a leg down to at least 1978 before expiry - #msg-2290163
Feb 03/04 · Window for the bounce should close tomorrow - #msg-2286996
Feb 02/04 · Equivalent to a RFTH - #msg-2279117
Feb 02/04 · The bounce might be over, we got to 2085 - #msg-2278249 #msg-2278883
Feb 02/04 · A challenge of 2100 in next day or two - #msg-2273902 #msg-2275122
Jan 30/04 · Challenging 2100 next week - #msg-2260976
Jan 29/04 · Expecting move up 50 to 70 Naz points from the low - #msg-2248709
Jan 29/04 · Medium term, still in my bear suit - #msg-2248284
Jan 28/04 · January forecast review redux - #msg-2241939
Jan 27/04 · SNDK, NVLS and CCMP; canaries for the sector - #msg-2232394
Jan 27/04 · This close fits with expectations of 2060 - #msg-2231285
Jan 26/04 · The bear is firmly in the picture - #msg-2220248
Jan 24/04 · January forecast review - #msg-2207001
Jan 23/04 · Next week, should give up 2100 - #msg-2203566 Erratum #msg-2204027
Jan 22/04 · May still have a week or so of additional topping - #msg-2188048
Jan 20/04 · Still expecting sub 1900, target date 3/24 - #msg-2173372
Jan 18/04 • 2004 forecast revisited - #msg-2157946
Jan 16/04 · Coalescence model is probably in force now - #msg-2152007
Jan 16/04 · Next stop is 2163, and we could get there - #msg-2150550
Jan 16/04 · Topping process could take another week - #msg-2146460
Jan 14/04 • Three-step decline from 2114 to sub 1900 or.... - #msg-2134556
Jan 14/04 · Sub 1900 is feasible - #msg-2132534
Jan 14/04 · Top in next few trading days, 2093 to 2163 - #msg-2131250
Jan 13/04 · May have a longer but slower relapse - #msg-2122459
Jan 13/04 · More likely just a drop to the 1975/85 area - #msg-2121564
Jan 11/04 · Continue down into Wednesday, then bounce - #msg-2103870 #msg-2103948
Jan 10/04 · Short term gloomy picture of market internals - #msg-2101414
Jan 10/04 · Bear suit for at least a 100 Naz points - #msg-2100994
Jan 08/04 • Changing target for retrench, expecting at least 1955 - #msg-2085673 #msg-2085873
Jan 08/04 · Many indicators reaching major danger readings - #msg-2080049
Jan 07/04 · If 70 point relapse, Feb relapse will be more - #msg-2077914
Jan 07/04 · Still expect a late day relapse - #msg-2073598
Jan 07/04 · Still have us retesting the 1975 area - #msg-2072858
Jan 06/04 · Still think we are in a local top here - #msg-2066689
Jan 06/04 · The low may extend to Friday - #msg-2064694
Jan 05/04 · Floor modified to 1975, once retrench starts - #msg-2057033
Jan 05/04 · Still think the top will be today - #msg-2055214
Jan 04/04 · Once more.............next week - #msg-2049473
Jan 03/04 · Equity (only) P/C ratio explained - #msg-2044956
Jan 02/04 · Ready for a fabulous G&C on Monday - #msg-2042206
Jan 02/04 · Relapse could be starting early - #msg-2041452
Jan 02/04 · Next week's relapse, 2-4 days - #msg-2039951
Jan 02/04 · EPC above .55 during the early January retrench - #msg-2035856
Jan 01/04 · Monday as high as 2025/30, then down to 1955/75 - #msg-2035017