At least half and as we approach the 1970/80 area from which I expect a bounce at least to 2015, possibly as high as 2045 before the "regularly scheduled program" takes hold. Go back to the Christmas forecast and you'll see the program had a first bottom on 3/8 and a second one on 3/24 (possibly forming a double bottom), most likely target was 1913, with a possibility of sub 1900 (1887) and "worst case scenario "containment in the 1842/50 area. That is still the model for now. Note, we had not had major expansion of new lows yet, so don't get overly bearish.