Santa, I have been tlking about a consumer led recession 2005 for about a year now. The question is the timing, I think that it may not start till late in the year, if that is the case, then a top around February March in 2004 is quite possible, if the recession starts in 2005, the top may be delayed a little into late 2005. (top in both cases n the marjkets). Right now, I am leaning to a late start of the recession (namely in 2005). My map starts and get the form of a resumprtion of the cyclical bull late this year (I still expect a trough around 11/21) going on for about 6 to 8 weeks (ending late in January early February), target just above 2000 on the Naz (nominal 2056, will be refined in December). Right now, I have us going in a trading range between that high and 1757 until the end of May (make it Memorial day or so), where we bounce back into mid July---- after that I have too many forks.....I even have a fork making that bounce quite powerful (particularly if 1915 holds on a retrenchment from the mid 2000 in the late winter early spring retrench), as high as 2390, other sides of the fork (particularly if 1757 does not hold in late spring) gets us back in the secular bear market and on our way to 950 sometime late in 2005. To summarize, from here, a very cloudy map with too many "if"s.
