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Re: brightness post# 59630

Saturday, 12/28/2002 3:15:28 PM

Saturday, December 28, 2002 3:15:28 PM

Post# of 704041
Hey Brightness, nothing wrong with disagreeing with me publicly or privately, I do that often enough myself.

As for cash levels, at the end of the day, during what I consider "low risk" period, my cash level is at between 15% to 25%. On rare occasions (as in the last week or two), when I expect the market to turn, I go to sleep with less cash than that (like under 10% right now). Going to sleep with 45% cash is quite neutral, and a "run for the hill" call will often result in immediate increase of cash to the 60% level which is further increased to about a max of 80% (I am rarely higher than 80% because I keep some "value orphans and some cores, but there have been rare times where I was up to 90% cash, like just before the Nassacre start 5/15).

Right now, we are definitely in disagreement (not very vehement, though), I still have another thrust up (for which I have positioned myself) before we go into what I now call the"grand Nassacre" (got to differentiate and invent new names for each one of these down legs <g>), while you are of the opinion that the major trend is already reestablished. So far, you are right and I am wrong. But, we are still above that Maginot line (barely, and much too close for comfort) and a solid week behind the schedule I expected (by now I expected us to be a solid 00 Naz points higher, not brushing with 1347) at 1347. The reason I suggested "patience" is that I still think that seasonal influences will reestablish themselves, more often than not, they do. Differences of opinions is what make the market (g).

Zeev


AZH

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