Sorry for being silly, but four years of progressively higher highs on the naz without revisiting the lows (20% off the 1800 high you expect for the Naz in 2003 is 1440, far from the low of 1100 or so set in October), would qualify as a secular bull move. Historically, within secular bear market cyclical bull moves rarely lasted more than 24 months. To make my "cyclical bull move" clearer, I would use your definition, a "cyclical bull move ends if the index drops more than 20% without recovering to new highs within few months". By the way, I think that your model of reaching 3250 by early 2006 implies the Dow might actually make a new high, and at least, "the street" will call it an end of the secular bear market.
In edit (to your edit), you are not particularly optimistic if you have only 1800 as the top for 2003 (g). If we still get a sharp retrenchment here in the next few weeks, I have a "possibility" of 1940 (nominal 1936) as the high next year, which is more optimistic that your figure (g). As a matter of fact, if we take out 1619, convicingly, then even without that sharp retracement 1936 is not out of the question for 2003, in my model.
Zeev
