Mostly because the leadership is still poor. Sure it is quite possible that a cyclcal bull market will evolve from the victory of this war After all, lower oil prices is the most immediate stimulus possible to the economy, short of an actual rebate of few undred bucks as we had before. This could be particularly true if we continue with a "bloodless" war that has a much lower cost than anticipated. On the other side, though, the basic problems of excess capacity are still with us. Technically, prices are on the verge of breakout, but with poor internals, and until the "internals" are improving, the turnips do not turn bullish. If you look at last May price action, it was quite similar a huge rally from aeound 1600 to 1750, ending with extreme readings in the P/C ration the short term DMA's lack of expansion of new highs, string of GPT, signaled the start of a move all the way to around 1100. We could have a repeat of that as well.
Zeev
