Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Here it is:

I have a strong beginning of the year, going to 2093 (Dow: 10730), maybe as high as 2163 (Dow: 10950) by the third week of January (early February if we take out 2093 in January). My most likely "schedule" is a ramp going into 1/5 above 2000, a slight retrench into 1/7 and then the run to 2093 before 1/23 (if that ramps does not generate the required extremes, we could follow beyond 2100 topping between 2/4 and 2/11). I expect by then that the sentiment indicators are going to register some nasty extremes, leading to a very sharp retrenchment in February to early March with a first bottom on 3/8 followed by another bottom (probably lower) around 3/24. The retrenchment could be between 150 to 250 Naz points (depending where we topped), but should be contained in the major containment zone of 1842/50 we are now quite familiar with. Probably, that bottom will not breach 1887 (we just tested earlier this month) and most likely will be above 1913. From that March bottom, we should march in three major thrusts ups, culminating with a top in the late June early July period just under 2350 (nominal 2333, Dow: 11440), which I believe will be the year's top on the Naz. From there on, we could have a topping action (the dow eventually getting as high 12000 or so, but the naz staying below that 2350, though in one of the forks, the naz does get to 2390). After trading in a range (about 180 to 200 Naz points) till late August, we get a first down leg in what I believe will be a nasty 2005 bear market, resumption of the secular big bad bear (see #reply-13483082 from April 2000), of about 18%/20% drop (to about 1915 on the Naz) ending late September early October (nominal turn date 9/29), followed by a ramp into Early November.

As always, the turnips reserve the right to be wrong, change their mind and change it often.