Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

mlsoft, I think we both agree on the Big "picture" (as described in this post from April 2000 #reply-13483082 ), we are still in a secular bear market with many years of meandering between about 6000 o 13500 on the Dow and the Naz (with a constantly readjusted bottom) in the range of 950 to who knows... Short term, not only the seasonality eads me to believe that the "bear rally business" is not finished, the late November top at 1520 or so, was a "poor top". There was not much opportunity for "them" to distribute stock to Mosis, only one sizeable IPO was managed and insider have not had a chance to unload. On the next run up (which I expect to start, mildly, this week and pick up momentum the week after), I think that the missing elements will be put in place and then sometime in January, we will have a string of 2.3 B plus volume on the Naz and close to 2 B shares on the NYSE to finally allow "them" to distribute their stuff before we go down.

For the next four weeks or so, I am quite bullish, it is not by accident that I went with less than 5% cash into this weekend and even kept some of the Q (double positions in QLGC and BRCD and single positions in MERQ and ELX, flat on BRCM) and QCOM (triple position) in tow. Particularly since so far, the deviation from the targets set on Nov 24 have not been breached drastically.

Just be careful, one of these days, we will have a cyclical bull interrupting this bear, from a political point of view, starting it by the middle of next year would probably best serve the current administration, whether they can engineer such is another question, and until I see the numbers near the next through (which right now I have at 950 o so on the Naz), I really will not be able to decipher the expected direction late next year.

Zeev