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Re: mlsoft post# 146379

Saturday, 08/30/2003 6:23:51 PM

Saturday, August 30, 2003 6:23:51 PM

Post# of 704019
Hey mlsoft, I thought Greenspan was at some "watering hole" in Wyoming Friday, he surely was not the one busy propping MSFT in the last minutes. It is not unusual at all to have some major stocks like INTC and MSFT have a minor run (and it was not a major run) in the last few minutes before a weekend, and even more common before a long weekend. A lot of shorts not wanting to be exposed to a breakout next week, if it happens, and a lot of longs squaring portfolio. Also last day of the month influence (without any fed intervention) could have been partially responsible. If you were the Feds, or even a body of "conspirators" trying to prop the market for a successful Republican campaign next year, would you shoot all your bullets a year before the critical time? No, I think the market is following its own dynamics, those of a bipolar entity, from extreme pessimism last July/October to a level of extreme optimism (which personally, I think we have already reached, but who knows how far optimism can go...). In as secular bear market (which I still think is the long term picture here), consecutive depth of pessimism, are deeper than the prior one, and consecutive heights of optimism, typically should be lower than the prior one as well. Typically, however is not "always" obeyed, and by some measure the current optimism will soon exceed the optimism in February of 2000. Thus your general bearish attitude for the short term may be justified, but no need to invoke the "powers", I think that right now, the "powers" are happy accumulating ammunition for the next time their presence will really be needed.

AZH

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