Actually, punkle, fall 2001 was a great rally, and while I "missed" the last10% (turned neutral around 1940 it went eventually to 2090 or so, the same last fall. The point is, we are not at bottoms like the late spring of 2000, the April and September bottoms of 2001, nor the rolling bottom from late July to early October 2002, our readings ar so far it is ridiculous. Someone mentioned that this year we still are waiting to see a real GNT (which by the way my model has adjusted to -800 on the Naz in 2000 it used to be -1250...), without a GNT, there is no real bottom. There simply is no "throw everything out" psychology, and we are brushing not too far from last years low (many foreign markets have already gone below, ours will follow), puts buying is tepid if not worse, new highs are lower here than in mid February when we visited that space las. Wait until we get 500 or more new lows on the Naz and 600 or so new lows on the NYSE, then the longs will have the fear in their heart which will ready us for a real maybe even cyclical bull market.
Zeev
