Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Right now with another four weeks before September expiry, it really does not mean that much, IMTO. If a week before that expiry, max pain is still well under the then current prices, that could cause acceleration of price advances as the naked writers of the option pile on the cover their bets. I don't think there is a high likelihood of that happening. Yesterday morning, during the first half hour, I actually got an "almost" run for the hills signal, of course that is in a background where my indicators have been flagging red since the last time we saw 1725 (earlier in the week), so no sense of issuing a "double red flag" warning. Time wise, we are now starting the period were the sharp September decline suggested in #msg-1217194 is supposed to start (five weeks is satisfying the requirement of "few weeks" from that 7/17 note). We are also ending the period of "10 trading days" suggested in #msg-1329089 (8/15). That period ends on 8/29, but yesterday's first half hour indicates to me we may have "hit it".