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Re: federal reserves post# 164952

Friday, 10/24/2003 10:57:20 PM

Friday, October 24, 2003 10:57:20 PM

Post# of 704019
I think he has a diamond (potential) top, but how many time have you seen that theoretical formation coming to fruition? More often than not, when the gap closes in a bull market (and I am assuming we are still in a bull market), such gap closing serves a a spring board for a new advance to a new recovery. You could have drawn the same diamond (initial formation) in the May-August time frame, but the gap closing (open early July closing second week in August) launched an advance that went 200 Naz points higher than the prior recovery high. I don't think this time the next leg get that high (that would be 2175 if it was the same, and right now my next potential target is 2056 or so, and not before we go into a sideway trading period here for few weeks...). In any event, we traced a nice dragon fly doji today, it would have ben "much nicer" if that gap closed, but you can't ask everything can you? We need to cover the two gaps down left, so my guess for an initial target of 1915 stays for the time being. If new highs manage to climb above 250 by then, I might even "allow" for continuation and possibly a marginal new high early in November. Now, if the equity p/c ratio today would have gone above 1, I might even be partying, but it went only to .80, good for the bulls, but not "great".

AZH

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