That could be "rational", but I would hate to use the 2000 index as a fib benchmark to today because of the drastic change in the index' composition. 40% or so of the issues that were flying like crazy then are no longer with us. I don't think we are going "well above 2300", though. I am using as a target an area of "good congestion" consisting of the December 2000 lows and the May 2001 highs, that creates a relatively formidable resistance in the 2250 to 2330 zone, I have a potential "exuberance overshoot" to 2390, since a breach of the May 2001 high should get all chart readers into the mantra, it is a "secular bull", just the right time to reestablish the secular bear scenario (g). If 2400 is "taken", then the next area of congestion is the January 2001 (2895) top to the May (and October) 2000 bottoms just above 3000 (3042/52 or so). Of course, my thesis from April 2000 that we are in a lengthy secular bear interrupted by two three cyclical bulls might be BS as well, but you got to have a map to follow and when proven wrong, modify it.... Between the 2163 target top for the winter and the 2390 possible late spring top (I have a nominal late spring top at 2133, but so far I have been too conservative on these high targets) we have the quite important "double the bottom" of the Naz at 1108, or 2216 which a lot of people are going to look at.
