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Re: ajs post# 109209

Monday, 05/19/2003 8:01:27 PM

Monday, May 19, 2003 8:01:27 PM

Post# of 704019
I think he is shouting fire a little too late, the Euro is probably not too far from the temporary top here (I have had for quite sometime the target of $1.18 to the Euro we are within less than 2%, similarly gold is not too far from topping here either. I don't expect any "catastrophe" to occur from the currency, after a retreat from around the above levels, we may have another run later this summer, against the dollar, but Fleck is missing a major ingredient, Europe is going into a slowdown of its own, probably more severe than ours, and sooner or later that is going to be reflected in the relative weakening of their currency.

That does not mean that our equity markets are out of dangers, but right now I expect this retreat to be contained and another run above 1500 to ensue before long. The nature of the decline and the following bump will be critical, IMTO, in determining if this was just a super bear market rally or the beginning of something much more pleasant. Right now, I have no choice but to stay "neutral".

Zeev

AZH

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