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Monday, September 15, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 47% (see recent daily results). Results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern every day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
This is the fourth straight day that McCain has been at 49% or above. Prior to this recent stretch, the Republican nominee had not topped 48% on any day since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination in early June. Still, today’s results show Obama a point closer to McCain than he’s been for the last three days.
Prior to the conventions, the tracking poll consistently showed a very close race--occasionally tied, but with Obama typically ahead by a point or two. For the past week, the race has remained very close but with a slight advantage for McCain. However, 17% of voters say they’re either uncommitted or could change their mind between now and Election Day. This suggests that the debates, which begin a week from Friday, could be especially important this year.
Forty-three percent (43%) of voters are certain they will vote for McCain and not change their mind. Forty percent (40%) say the same about Obama.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 54% (see trends). Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new data showing whether voters believe McCain, Obama, and their running mates are prepared to be President (Premium Members can get a sneak peek and see the results now).
At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
A video analysis for Premium Members looks at whether public dissatisfaction with Bush is the result of competence issues or ideology… and suggests that the answer could have implications for Election 2008.
Voters are now evenly divided as to who they think will win in November, but McCain voters are now more excited about the election than Obama’s. Separately, Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a 51.6% chance of victory while expectations for Obama are at 47.0%. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows McCain leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama has the edge in states with 193 votes. When “leaners” are included, shows Obama leading 259-247 (see Quick Campaign Overview). A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).
Last week, Rasmussen Reports released polling data for Nevada, Missouri. Washington, Michigan, Idaho, Wyoming, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Premium Members see demographic crosstabs for all state polling data. Learn More.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. During the final two months of Election 2008, party weighting targets are updated each Sunday (see additional information). For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Sunday, September 07, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).
Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, tomorrow (Monday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the net impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.
McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.
McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women. Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs and all the data we collect--not just the portion we make public. Premium Members can also get an advance look at tracking poll results via the Daily Snapshot each morning.
Forty-two percent (42%) of voters say that economic issues are most important this year and Obama holds a 34-point advantage among these voters.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters say the national security issues are most important. Among these voters its McCain by 39.
The Republican hopeful also leads by wide margins among those who consider fiscal issues or cultural issues most important. Obama leads among those primarily interested in domestic programs such as Social Security and health care.
Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 56% (see trends).
Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her. Biden earns positive reviews from 48% of voters.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.
Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports reviews the key polls of the past week to learn What They Told Us.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary).
Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 57.4 % chance of winning in November. Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (Premium Members can see more at the Daily Snapshot).
The race for the White House has been remarkably stable of late. For the past three weeks, Obama’s support (with leaners) has been between 46% and 48% every day. During that three-week stretch, McCain’s support has been between 45% and 47% every day and the candidates have been within one or two points of each other every day.
When Obama first clinched the nomination, he opened a lead over McCain that was consistently in the five percentage point range. Then, following the Fourth of July, McCain began to gain a little traction leading to the close race we have today. It appears that the energy issue—offshore oil drilling in particular—has helped the Republican hopeful.
State polls tend to lag a bit behind the national trend because individual states are not polled on a daily basis. But, data released this week from North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, and Missouri confirmed the national trend and showed just how close this race is on the eve of the two nominating conventions.
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What They Told Us, our weekly review of last week’s key polls notes that there were more troubling numbers for the media this week. The Saturday morning feature also touches on the energy issue, Social Security, the Russian invasion of Georgia, and more. During the past week, the Rasmussen Consumer Index showed consumer confidence rising to the highest levels since early March.
Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free).
Obama is now viewed favorably by 54% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 53% (see trends). Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 60.7 % chance of winning the White House. On Sunday morning, the markets see Evan Bayh and Joe Biden as the most likely running mates for Obama. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty are the current favorites.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, August 16, 2008
There were more troubling numbers for the news media this week, as voters nationwide continue to tell us that trust is an issue as far as journalists are concerned.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters say media bias is a bigger problem than campaign cash – even though they overwhelmingly believe politicians will “break the rules to help people who give them a lot of money.”
Nearly half of Americans (47%) believe the Fairness Doctrine should be restored, so the government can require all radio and television stations to offer equal amounts of conservative and liberal political commentary. But voters draw the line at government regulation of the freewheeling Internet.
At the same time, 71% admit it is already possible for just about any political view to be heard in today’s media.
These new findings come on the heels of surveys earlier this summer when 68% of voters told us most reporters try to help the candidate they want to win and 49% believe most reporters are trying to help Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama win this year. Just 14% say most reporters will help Republican candidate John McCain. And half of Americans believe the U.S. media makes our current economic situation look worse than it really is.
Speaking of the economy, 64% now favor going ahead with offshore oil drilling as one way to help reduce gas and oil prices and 61% want Congress to return to Washington immediately to lift the ban on such drilling.
McCain’s push for offshore drilling has helped him stay competitive in a contest our daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows remains very close.
But 48% of voters also support Obama’s proposal to give $4 billion in federal aid to the troubled auto industry to build fuel efficient cars. Forty-six percent (46%) oppose his idea to give a $7,000 tax credit to Americans who buy a hybrid vehicle, although nearly as many (44%) are in favor of it. Over half (55%) also like McCain’s idea of building more nuclear plants.
The majority of voters nationwide (62%) agree with Obama that individuals should pay Social Security taxes on most or all of their incomes. Obama has said he plans to raise the cap on the tax because “we have to capture some revenue in order to stabilize the Social Security system.”
Half of voters (51%) believe McCain is the best equipped of the two major presidential candidates to handle a crisis like Russia’s ongoing invasion of neighboring Georgia. While 59% regard the situation there as a threat to U.S. national security, less than a third (31%) believe the United States should take any diplomatic action against Russia.
Overall, voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans on nine out of 10 issues, including national security.
This week voters also told us:
-- McCain has edged ahead in Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina and is solidly out front in reliably red Kansas. Obama has strong leads in Maine and Oregon and is holding on in Iowa and Minnesota.
-- For Democrats, there is lots of good news down-ticket. The Senate races in Virginia and Michigan remain runaways, as does the Missouri gubernatorial contest. In the races for Senate in Colorado and governor in North Carolina, the Democratic candidates are modestly ahead.
-- For Republicans, the good news is that incumbent senators in Kansas and Maine appear to be heading smoothly toward re-election. In Minnesota’s Senate contest, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman is in a toss-up with comedian Al Franken, the Democratic candidate.
-- Forty-eight percent (48%) of Democrats agree with Obama that allowing Senator Hillary Clinton’s name to also be placed in nomination at the Democratic National Convention will “bring the party together in a strong united fashion." But 28% of Democrats disagree.
-- Forty-one percent (41%) of Americans say George W. Bush will go down in history as the worst U.S. president ever. Despite Bush's record low poll numbers on job performance, 50% of Americans disagree.
-- Consumer confidence has reached its highest level in more than five months, according to the Rasmussen Consumer Index. The Index is still down 18 points from the beginning of the year.
-- Most Americans have been following news stories on the presidential campaign more closely than the Olympic Games, but, given the choice, they would rather watch the games.
-- Nearly three out of four Americans (73%) say Starbucks charges too much for a cup of coffee.
-- Nearly as many adults (72%) believe school books are more important for success in life than street smarts. That’s up six points from last year.
2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Michigan: Obama still ahead 47% to 40%
Barack Obama still holds a solid 47% to 40% lead over John McCain in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters there.
Missouri: McCain Now Leads By Seven in Classic Swing State
John McCain leads Barack Obama by seven percentage points in the race for Missouri’s Electoral College votes.
Washington: Obama Extends Lead Over McCain
Barack Obama has expanded his lead over John McCain in Washington and now leads the GOP hopeful by a dozen points.
Massachusetts: Obama leads McCain 51% to 36%
Just as the presidential race nationally has tightened up, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain in Massachusetts has narrowed since last month, but he still sits comfortably out front 51% to 36%.
Wisconsin Getting Closer, Obama By Four
Barack Obama's 11-point lead in Wisconsin is now down to four. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama leading John McCain 47% to 43%. When “leaners” are included in the totals, Obama leads 51% to 44%.
New York: Obama Holds onto Dominant Lead
Barack Obama doesn't have a two-to-one margin in New York anymore, but he still leads John McCain by 20 points, 52% to 32%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Empire State voters.
Obama Leads McCain By Eight in Garden State
Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain 48% to 40% in New Jersey, up slightly from last month but identical to his lead in June, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. When “leaners” are included, Obama’s lead expands to 10 percentage points, 52% to 42%.
News You Watch Says a Lot About How You’ll Vote
Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Fox News viewers say they are likely to vote for John McCain, while those who watch CNN and MSNBC plan to support Barack Obama in November by more than two to one.
Saturday, August 09, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that the race for the White House is tied—Barack Obama and John McCain each attract 44% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%. With leaners, the candidates have been within one point of each other for nine straight days (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
McCain leads by nineteen points among White Men and by eight points among White Women. Obama leads 94% to 5% among African-American voters and by twenty-one points among Hispanic voters. We invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls. Premium Members can review additional information and get an advance look at new data on the influence of money in politics by visiting the Daily Snapshot.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 54% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53%. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Voters see stark differences between Obama and McCain on two key issues of Election 2008—Iraq and Energy. On Iraq, voters believe Obama’s top priority is getting the troops home rather than winning the War. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say that is their top priority as well. On energy, voters believe McCain is more focused on finding new sources of energy rather than reducing the amount of energy we consume. That’s also the view held by 65% of voters.
Each Saturday morning, we review the week’s key polls to see What They Told Us. This week’s review includes new state polling data from Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Washington.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 60.5% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Arizona: McCain Takes 16-point Lead over Obama; 46% Support Anti-Affirmative Action Initiative
John McCain has now stretched his lead over Barack Obama to 16 points -- 52% to 36% -- in his home state of Arizona, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.
Connecticut: Obama keeps double-digit lead over McCain 51% to 36%
Alabama: McCain Up by Eighteen
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again-- Barack Obama and John McCain each attract 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports also released state polling data for Arizona, Alabama, and Connecticut.
This is the second straight day showing McCain with a statistically insignificant advantage nationally over Obama. These two days are the first time that the GOP hopeful has enjoyed a lead of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3. Overall, however, these results are consistent with results from the past couple of weeks showing a race that is essentially even as the convention season approaches (see recent daily results).
Premium Members can review the latest numbers measuring confidence in the War on Terror and other topics at the Daily Snapshot.
Yesterday, Obama delivered a major speech on the energy issue. Voters like the idea of Obama’s proposed energy credit for working families, but they give mixed reviews to calls for a windfall profits tax on oil companies.
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends). Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decent (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends).
Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Polling data released earlier today showed that 46% say Affirmative Action programs are no longer necessary, but 32% believe they should continue.
Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at the week’s key polls to see What They Told Us. Earlier, Rasmussen Reports released data on a topic of interest to poll junkies and armchair campaign analysts alike--day-of-week polling bias. There is little evidence to support the notion that some days of the week poll better for Republicans while other days are better for Democrats.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 59.2% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
We invite you to review recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Monday, August 04, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.
This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3 (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.
Sixty percent (60%) of voters now see Obama as politically liberal while 65% see McCain as politically conservative. Among liberals, 71% see Obama as one of them, but just 18% of liberals see Obama as Very Liberal. Among conservatives, 71% say McCain is also a conservative, including 38% who say he is Very Conservative. Thirty-five percent (35%) of politically moderate voters say that McCain is politically moderate and 33% say the same of Obama. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats see McCain as conservative while 69% of Republicans see Obama as liberal (see other recent demographic highlights).
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends). The presumptive Democratic nominee is addressing economic issues in Michigan this morning and Rasmussen Reports will release polling data at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on his key proposals (available for Premium Members now at the Daily Snapshot).
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decent (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends).
Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Polling data released earlier today showed that 46% say Affirmative Action programs are no longer necessary, but 32% believe they should continue.
The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points in July. Obama’s party still enjoys a big advantage over the GOP, but the gap between the parties is the smallest it has been since January.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters have seen or heard news coverage of McCain’s ad including Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Just 22% believe the ad was racist. But, most say Obama’s comment about not looking like other Presidents on the dollar bill was racist.
Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at the week’s key polls to see What They Told Us. Earlier, Rasmussen Reports released data on a topic of interest to poll junkies and armchair campaign analysts alike--day-of-week polling bias. There is little evidence to support the notion that some days of the week poll better for Republicans while other days are better for Democrats.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 59.0% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Sunday, August 03, 2008
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of the nation’s voters say they’ve seen news coverage of the McCain campaign commercial that includes images of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton and suggests that Barack Obama is a celebrity just like them. Of those, just 22% say the ad was racist while 63% say it was not.
However, Obama’s comment that his Republican opponent will try to scare people because Obama does not look like all the other presidents on dollar bills was seen as racist by 53%. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree.
Both campaigns expressed a desire to move beyond the recent flap. On Saturday Obama backed off the racism charge and accused McCain's campaign of cynicism instead. He also rejected McCain's charge that the Democrat himself had brought race into the campaign with his dollar bill comment.
Two months after Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the race for the White House remains amazingly close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Not surprisingly, the McCain ad generates significantly different perceptions along racial and ethnic lines. Most African-American voters—58%--saw the McCain ad as racist. Just 18% of white voters and 14% of all other voters shared that view. To watch the ad, click HERE.
As for Obama’s comment, 53% of white voters saw it as racist, as did 44% of African-Americans and 61% of all other voters.
There were also significant partisan divides. Democrats were evenly divided as to whether the McCain commercial was racist, and they were also evenly divided on the Obama comment. Republicans, by an 87% to 4% margin, rejected the notion that the McCain campaign ad was racist. But, by a 67% to 26% margin, GOP voters believe that Obama’s comment was racist.
Unaffiliated voters, by a five-to-one margin, said the McCain ad was not racist. By a much narrower 50% to 38% margin, unaffiliateds viewed Obama’s comment as racist.
Overall, just 22% of voters believe that most Americans are racist. That view is shared by 32% of Democrats, 20% of unaffiliated voters and 12% of Republicans. African-American voters are evenly divided on the question.
Saturday, August 02, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that the race for the White House has become breathtakingly close. Barack Obama attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. While the race has been very close for much of the past few weeks, McCain has never held the lead for even a single day in the two weeks since Obama clinched the nomination (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at the week’s key polls to see What They Told Us.
New data released today shows that the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell in July. While Obama’s party still enjoys a big advantage over the GOP, the gap between the parties is now the smallest that it has been since January. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain earns positive reviews from 86% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 82% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 60% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 50%.
Cindy McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of American voters, Michelle Obama by 46%. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Premium Members can also visit the Daily Snapshot for additional information.
Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released data on a topic of interest to poll junkies and armchair campaign analysts alike, day-of-week polling bias. A review of the data since June 3 shows little evidence to support the notion that some days of the week poll better for Republicans while other days are better for Democrats.
Rasmussen Reports has recently released data on the Presidential race in Alaska, Kentucky, Montana, and Texas. Other data showed indicted Alaska Senator Ted Stevens trails by double digits in his bid for re-election. Proving once again that voters are willing to grade politicians on a curve, 66% say Stevens is at least as ethical as most politicians. An update by Larry Sabato says Stevens is headed for defeat..
Thirty percent (30%) of conservative Democrats plan to vote for John McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) of White Democrats say the same. There are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters today as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 62.9% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Friday, August 01, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 55%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Premium Members can also visit the Daily Snapshot for an advance look at new polling on affirmative action and other Election 2008 topics.
Voters continue to have stronger opinions about Obama than McCain. Thirty-two percent (32%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democrat while 27% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 17% Very Unfavorable. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 21% name national security issues. Twelve percent (12%) say that domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care are the highest priority, 9% name fiscal issues such as taxes and government while 5% focus primarily on cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.
As with everything in a political election season, there is a partisan divide on priorities. Among Democrats, 53% say the economy is most important, 17% name domestic issues as their primary concern, and 14% say national security. For Republicans, 35% focus first on national security, 31% on the economy, and 14% on fiscal issues. As for those not affiliated with either major party, 51% say the economy is number one and 16% say the top issue is national security.
Obama leads by 19 points among those who say economic issues are most important while McCain leads by 39 among national security voters. Obama also leads among those focused on domestic issues while McCain leads among those whose top priority is fiscal issues or cultural issues.
On a different topic, as charges of racism have been raised by the two Presidential campaigns, polling shows that a steadily growing number of Americans say they are prepared to vote for an African-American President.
Also today, Rasmussen Reports has issued an analysis on a topic of interest to poll junkies and armchair campaign analysts alike, day-of-week polling bias. A review of the data since June 3 shows little evidence to support the notion that some days of the week poll better for Republicans while other days are better for Democrats.
Four years ago today, John Kerry led George W. Bush by four points (49% to 45%) and by five with leaners (51% to 46%). That matched his best day ever and was the last time he enjoyed such a sizable lead. At this point four years ago, the Democratic National Convention had already been held.
Rasmussen Reports data released yesterday shows that indicted Alaska Senator Ted Stevens trails by double digits in his bid for re-election. Proving once again that voters are willing to grade politicians on a curve, 66% say Stevens is at least as ethical as most politicians. An update by Larry Sabato says Stevens is headed for defeat..
Other data released yesterday for the Presidential race in Kentucky, Montana, and Texas. Also, for the Kentucky Senate race and the Montana Governor’s race. At noon Eastern Time today, data will be released on the Presidential race in Alaska. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers on the Texas Senate will be released.
Thirty percent (30%) of conservative Democrats plan to vote for John McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) of White Democrats say the same. There are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters today as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 62.9% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that Barack Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 55%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
Other polls have now confirmed what Rasmussen Reports was the first to report on Monday--that Obama’s Berlin bounce faded as quickly as it came and the Democrat enjoyed no gain from his world tour. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
New data released today shows that 30% of conservative Democrats plan to vote for John McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) of White Democrats say the same. Full crosstabs are available for Premium Members. There are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters today as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights).
Premium Members can also visit the Daily Snapshot for an advance look at new polling on affirmative action, whether America’s best days are still to come, whether the U.S. should follow the lead of our allies more often, whether McCain’s policies will be a continuation of President Bush, and whether Obama will simply offer liberal, big-government, solutions.
Polling released yesterday shows that John McCain has expanded his lead in Mississippi and that Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker has opened a modest lead in his bid for re-election. Polling in Nebraska showed good news for Republicans in both the Presidential and Senate races. Other polling released yesterday showed that a steadily growing number of Americans say they are prepared to vote for an African-American President.
Today, at noon Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new data on the Alaska Senate race. Long-time Senator Ted Stevens has been indicted on several criminal counts and an update by Larry Sabato says Stevens is headed for defeat..
At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the Kentucky Senate race and the Montana Governor’s race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Presidential polling will be released for Kentucky, Montana, and Texas.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a % chance of winning the White House.
Americans are split as to whether offshore oil drilling or cracking down on speculators is more important in the battle against high gas prices. As far as public opinion is concerned, the best answer would be to do both.
Democrats have a thirteen-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot half of the nation’s voters say the U.S. is winning the War on Terror and 50% prefer a pro-growth tax policy over one that guarantees tax fairness. The Rasmussen Employment Index gained a point in July but confidence in the employment arena remains very low. Just over 21% of workers say their firms are hiring while just under 21% say their firms are letting people go.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that Barack Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
In the race for the White House, there are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights). While much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans. Full crosstabs and a demographic profile of the uncommitted voters are available for Premium Members.
Premium Members can also visit the Daily Snapshot for an advance look the latest numbers on Obama’s trip, who voters trust on economic and national security issues, and Congressional ratings.
Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% of voters. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Data released yesterday shows that Americans are split as to whether offshore oil drilling or cracking down on speculators is more important in the battle against high gas prices. As far as public opinion is concerned, the best answer would be to do both.
Democrats have a thirteen-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot half of the nation’s voters say the U.S. is winning the War on Terror and 50% prefer a pro-growth tax policy over one that guarantees tax fairness. The Rasmussen Employment Index gained a point in July but confidence in the employment arena remains very low. Just over 21% of workers say their firms are hiring while just under 21% say their firms are letting people go.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Speculation that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine would be named as Barack Obama’s running mate is running high. Larry Sabato takes a look at Kaine’s plusses and minuses, while Rasmussen Markets data shows Kaine to be the frontrunner.
At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on response to Obama’s overseas trip. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska and Mississippi. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for the Presidential race in Nebraska and Mississippi.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 61.3% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is gone. Obama now attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. Compared to a week ago, Obama has gained a single percentage point (see recent daily results).
However, the week’s polling showed a roller-coaster of opinion surrounding Obama’s big speech. The event in Berlin was well-covered and initial reviews on the speech were positive. Polling on Thursday and Friday nights was very strong for the Democrat, leading to a six-point advantage in our Saturday morning release. However, polling for the past three days shows no trace of a bounce. The data looks very similar to results from the period preceding the speech and, with fourteen weeks to go, the race for the White House is a toss-up. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans (see other recent demographic highlights).
Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 54%. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
As Vice Presidential rumors swirl about Tim Kaine, 20% of voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of the Virginia Governor. Another 20% have an unfavorable view while most have no opinion. John Edwards and Hillary Clinton have the highest favorable among the rumored running mate prospects. On the GOP side, Huckabee, Lieberman, and Romney are each viewed favorably by more than 40% of voters.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the offshore drilling debate in Congress. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest Generic Congressional Ballot update will be released and this week’s War on Terror update will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Premium Members can review this data first by checking out the Daily Snapshot.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 62.7% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Monday, July 28, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is fading. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
Tracking results are based upon nightly telephone interviews with 1,000 Likely Voters and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Following his speech in Berlin, Obama enjoyed two very strong nights of polling on Thursday and Friday. His lead grew to six-points for results released on Saturday (see recent daily results). However, polling on Saturday and Sunday showed the candidates much closer with single-day results similar to polling from before the Berlin speech.
Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. See other recent demographic highlights on Election 2008. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Premium Members can review the latest polling data on tax issues, health care, offshore oil drilling, and perceptions of discrimination. Also available are crosstabs and demographic results for Presidential race, Generic Congressional Ballot, and Issue Priorities for the full week ending last night. All premium data can be accessed by the Daily Snapshot.
Today at noon Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release favorability ratings for fifteen rumored Vice Presidential prospects. Premium Members can review this data now by checking out the Daily Snapshot.
Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports also reviews the week’s key polls to see What They Told Us.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 63.2% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Barack Obama was the political news this week, despite John McCain’s best efforts to get some of the media focus directed his way.
But for McCain and other beleaguered Republicans, at least there was good news on the war front. Over half of Americans now believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, the most upbeat assessment Rasmussen Reports has recorded in nearly four years.
Still, Obama’s week-long trip to the Middle East and Europe dominated the news and was the subject of – or appeared to impact – several polls this week. For the Democratic candidate, it was definitely a mixed bag. While Obama hoped to strengthen his foreign policy credentials with visits to Afghanistan and Iraq, for example, 63% of voters told us the trip didn’t make him more fit to be president.
Military veterans also still support the Republican candidate more -- by nearly 20 points -- 56% to 37%.
But 55% of voters gave good or excellent marks to Obama’s high-profile speech in Berlin.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll by week’s end also showed a bounce for Obama. On Friday morning, he led his Republican opponent 46% to 41%. This is the first time the Democrat has enjoyed a five-point advantage since July 8.
The media may be bigger losers this week, though, than McCain.
With three major television anchors flying overseas to interview the Democrat and the New York Times rejecting a McCain op-ed piece that challenged an article by Obama a week earlier, the media is likely to have further fed growing concern about its bias. A new Rasmussen Reports survey has found that 49% now believe the media is trying to help Obama win with its coverage.
Even though only 34% of Americans believe the United States has the world’s best economy, half (50%) think the media makes economic conditions appear worse than they really are.
Speaking of the economy, 84% of Americans are now worried about the threat of high inflation in the next year, with 47% saying that are Very Worried.
Nearly seven out of 10 Americans are confident in the stability of the U.S. banking system, though, even as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns that more banks are likely to fail.
Here’s what else Americans told us this week:
-- There’s more bad news for Republicans in the Senate. Longtime incumbent Ted Stevens has fallen behind by nine points in Alaska, even though McCain leads Obama by five in the traditionally GOP state. Republican Senator John Sununu has gained some ground in New Hampshire, but he still trails Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. Democrats are ahead in both Colorado and New Mexico, running for seats now held by Republicans who are retiring from the Senate.
-- Al Gore gave a big speech recently, too, but only 33% of American voters believe his proposal to switch all of the nation's electricity production to wind, solar and other carbon-free sources in 10 years is realistic. Beyond the Democratic Party base, most voters have the inconvenient perception that Gore’s plan will just make energy prices go up.
-- Most Americans believe suspected terrorists should be tried by military tribunals rather than in U.S. courts, as the first such trial began this week at the Guantanamo Naval Base in Cuba. They also don’t think these suspects should have the same legal rights as U.S. citizens and don’t want to close the prison camp at Guantanamo.
-- Half of Republicans think Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be McCain’s choice for a running mate. Hillary Clinton is the top vote getter among Democrats for the number two slot.
-- Sixty-three percent (63%) of Americans want the troops home from Iraq within a year. Just over half believe it’s more important for the next president to bring the troops home than win the war there. But 42% say America should help Israel if it is attacked by Iran.
-- With the dollar still weak against foreign currency, the likelihood of Americans traveling outside the country is down, too.
-- While most voters do not think the upcoming Olympic Games in Beijing should be a forum for political protests, they have mixed feelings about the Chinese barring protests near the sites where the games will be held.
That’s it for this week, but what a week it was. As always, Premium Members can take a deeper look at all the data and check out the Daily Snapshot for the latest info.
Friday, July 25, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows a bounce for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. Just three days ago, the candidates were tied at 46% (with leaners).
This is the first time that Obama has enjoyed a five point advantage since July 8. It’s also the first time he has reached the 49% level of support since that date. In June, Obama’s support stayed within a point of the 49% level virtually every day and the Democrat typically led by about five percentage points. The race has been closer over the past couple of weeks (see recent daily results). As with any bounce in the polls, it will take a few days to determine whether it reflects a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise.
Overall, Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. In last night’s polling, 50% had already seen coverage of Obama’s Berlin speech. Initial reactions to the speech will be reported at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today. Premium Members can review the results early by checking out the Daily Snapshot. Also available for Premium Members are the latest numbers on support for offshore oil drilling.
Data released yesterday showed Obama with modest leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. New data released this morning shows McCain leading by nineteen points among those who have served in the military See other recent demographic highlights on Election 2008. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters say that economic issues are most important this season while 22% say national security issues are the highest priority. Twelve percent (12%) are focused on domestic issues like social security and health care, 8% on fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending, and, finally, 4% on cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion. Other key stats on the race are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Polling data released yesterday shows that most Americans believe suspected terrorists should be tried by military tribunals rather than in U.S. courts. Data released yesterday shows that—for the first time since 2004—a majority of voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters believe that most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election while only 14% believe reporters are trying to help McCain.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 63.5% chance of winning the White House. On Thursday morning, the markets also suggest that Mitt Romney and Evan Bayh are the top running mate prospects. Polling shows similar expectations.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
State and other polling data is released daily at 7:00 a.m., Noon, 3:00 p.m., and 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Yesterday’s releases showed a toss-up in Florida while Obama leads in Minnesota.
Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of voters, McCain by 54%. While the single point difference is statistically insignificant, it is the first time in two weeks that Obama has topped McCain in the favorable category. Voters continue to have stronger opinions about Obama than McCain. Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 28% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers are 17% Very Favorable, 20% Very Unfavorable. Other key stats are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 64.9% chance of winning the White House. On Thursday morning, the markets also suggest that Mitt Romney and Evan Bayh are the top running mate prospects. Polling shows similar expectations.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
New polling released today shows that most Americans believe suspected terrorists should be tried by military tribunals rather than in U.S. courts. Data released yesterday shows that—for the first time since 2004—a majority of voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters believe that most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election while only 14% believe reporters are trying to help McCain.
Four years ago today, John Kerry enjoyed a two-point lead over George W. Bush (three points with leaners). That was down slightly from the day before when the Massachusetts Senator reached the high-water mark for his campaign heading into the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Kerry didn’t get a bounce from that Convention but was able to hang on to a very small lead until late-August (see Election 2004 daily tracking summary).
One big difference today is that fewer voters are committed to a candidate at this point in the 2008 cycle. In Election 2004, 92% had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (97% with leaners). That left only 8% of voters who were still persuadable and most of those were leaning one day or another. This year, 86% say they’ll vote for either Obama or McCain. That leaves 14% who are persuadable, most of whom are not leaning towards either candidate.
From a practical point of view, that means Election 2004 was all about getting out the base vote. In Election 2008, the candidates still need to make their case to a significant pool of undecided voters.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Everyone can review recent demographic highlights on Election 2008.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. These results come as—for the first time since 2004—a majority of voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror.
While Obama has been on an overseas tour, 45% of voters say the Democratic hopeful is too inexperienced to be President. That’s up four percentage points from a week ago. An equal number—45%--disagree with that assessment and say Obama has the necessary experience.
State polling released yesterday provided good news for Obama in Colorado and for McCain in Ohio. Today, at noon Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Florida. New data will be released from polling in Minnesota as well, an update on the Senate race at 3:00 p.m. Eastern and the Presidential numbers at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
With official Washington buzzing about a possible running mate announcement, a plurality of voters expect McCain to select Mitt Romney as his running mate. Also, a plurality sees Hillary Clinton as Obama’s best choice but far fewer think she will get the nod.
You can review recent demographic highlights on Election 2008 and you can also check out other key stats at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Four years ago today, John Kerry enjoyed a three-point lead over George W. Bush (five points with leaners). That turned out to be the high-water mark for the Massachusetts Senator, just days before the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Kerry didn’t get a bounce from that Convention but was able to hang on to a very small lead until late-August (see Election 2004 daily tracking summary).
One big difference today is that fewer voters are committed to a candidate at this point in the 2008 cycle. In Election 2004, 93% had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (97% with leaners). That left only 7% of voters who were still persuadable and most of those were leaning one day or another. This year, 87% say they’ll vote for either Obama or McCain. That leaves 13% who are persuadable, most of whom are not leaning towards either candidate.
From a practical point of view, that means Election 2004 was all about getting out the base vote. In Election 2008, the candidates still need to make their case to a significant pool of undecided voters.
New data released yesterday reveals an Inconvenient Perception about Al Gore’s recent proposals—voters tend to view them as unrealistic and costly. Still, 53% have a favorable opinion of the former Vice President. Democrats hold a nine-percentage point advantage in the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters believe that most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election while only 14% believe reporters are trying to help McCain. Other data shows that voters tend to think reporters are trying to make both the economy and Iraq seem worse than they really are. In a video commentary, Scott Rasmussen notes that this data suggests “voters are looking at reporters in the way reporters want us to look at Wikipedia.” They provide “a nice reference point, but ultimately you have to check out the facts for yourself.”
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.3% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. State polling released yesterday showed Obama with a steady lead in Oregon and McCain with a twenty-point lead in Kansas.
McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans and holds an eleven-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. Obama leads among voters under 30 while McCain has the edge among those over 65. The two candidates are even among voters aged 30-64 (see other recent demographic highlights). Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind before November. Another 34% are that certain about voting for McCain. That leaves 32% open to changing their mind before voting and creates a potential for either candidate to open a significant lead in the fall. Other key stats on the race for the White House can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
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New data released this morning shows that 48% of voters agree with Obama and believe Iraq is not the central front in the War on Terror. This comes a day after polling showed that growing numbers of Americans see the U.S. winning the War on Terror. Other new data shows that Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on seven of ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports.
Senate polling released yesterday showed Oregon Senator Gordon Smith remains vulnerable this election cycle. But, Republicans can take more comfort in the Senate polling from Kansas.
At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in North Carolina. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the race in Nevada and Arkansas. A North Carolina Senate update will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.
Monday, Rasmussen Reports released new state polls in South Dakota, Louisiana, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 66.0% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). Other polling shows that, in a hypothetical match-up, Obama leads the current President by twenty percentage points while Hillary Clinton does a bit better than Obama against McCain. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
New data released this morning shows that growing numbers of Americans see the U.S. winning the War on Terror. Expectations of improvement in Iraq are up significantly as well. Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release statewide polling data for the Presidential and Senate races in Oregon and Kansas.
Currently, McCain leads by a 60% to 26% margin among Evangelical Christians and holds a very slight edge over Obama among other Protestant voters and Catholic voters. Obama holds a thirty-five point advantage among all other voters. Most voters who attend Church at least weekly support McCain and most who rarely or never attend services prefer Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).
Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. McCain is viewed favorably by 71% of Evangelical Christians, 59% of other Protestant voters, and 64% of Catholic voters. Obama earns favorable reviews from 39% of Evangelical Christians, 53% of other Protestant voters, and 51% of Catholic voters. Among all other voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 67%, McCain by 38% (see other recent demographic highlights).
In addition to favorability ratings, other key stats on the race for the White House can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Monday, Rasmussen Reports released new state polls in South Dakota, Louisiana, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.1% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45%.
Over the weekend, when the tracking poll showed the candidates tied, it was unclear whether the tightening of the race shown in the poll was statistical noise or real change. At the moment, it appears to be a little of both. The race seems to be a bit closer than it’s been for most of the past month-and-a-half, but Obama still has a slight lead. It will take a few more days to see if this assessment holds or if Obama can regain his five point lead (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).
A review of Rasmussen Reports full week tracking confirms the slight tightening of the race. Seven-day tracking shows less volatility than three-day tracking and is based upon interviews with 7,000 Likely Voters each week. For the first five weeks after clinching the Democratic nomination, Obama led McCain 49% to 44% in every week but one. The sole exception found Obama ahead 49% to 43%. However, for the seven days ending July 13, Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% (see crosstabs).
Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. Other key stats on the race can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released new state polls in South Dakota, Louisiana, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.
New Senate polls show good news for incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and not so good news for incumbent Republican Norm Coleman in Minnesota.
Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.0% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Monday, July 14, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. The candidates had been tied at 43% for the past two days.
When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights). McCain’s improvement in the polls comes as more Americans believe it is possible for the U.S. to win the war in Iraq.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 41%. For Obama, the numbers are 54% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Other key stats on the race can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227. New state polling data will be released each afternoon this week.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 66.6% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
For the second straight day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that the race for the White House is tied. Sunday’s numbers show Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 43% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, the two candidates are tied at 46%. For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points. It will take a few more days to determine whether this recent tightening of the race reflects real change or is merely statistical noise. (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. Also, take a moment to check out our weekly review of key polls. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227. Recent state polling provided good news for Obama in Wisconsin and North Dakota while McCain improved his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.
Just 15% of voters say the nation is heading in the right direction while 79% say it has gotten off on the wrong track. McCain is supported by 85% of those who say the country is heading in the right direction. Among the much larger number who say the country has gotten off on the wrong track, Obama leads 54% to 38%.
Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008 and these voters prefer Obama by a sixteen point margin. Twenty-three percent (23%) name national security issues as their highest priority. They favor McCain by a two-to-one margin. Domestic issues such as Social Security and Health Care are most important for 12%, fiscal issues for 8%, and cultural issues for 5%. Obama leads by a wide margin among those who call cultural issues most important while McCain leads by similarly wide margins among those who consider fiscal or cultural issues tops.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of voters and unfavorably by 40%. For Obama, the numbers are 54% favorable and 44% unfavorable.
McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 23% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 53%.
Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain--30% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 26% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 17% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables). Among unaffiliated voters, 18% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 16% say the same about McCain.
It is interesting to note that 57% of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 33% of Republicans are that enthusiastic about their nominee. However, 87% of Republicans have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of McCain while only 79% of Democrats have such an opinion of Obama. Other key stats on the race can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Rasmussen Markets data shows there are no clear favorites for the Veepstakes in either political party. However, the markets currently give Obama a 67.0% chance of winning the White House.
Other recent data shows that voters consider cutting government spending more important than balancing the budget and strongly reject Obama’s call for bilingualism. Nearly half (46%) support a military response if Iran attacks Israel. Voter approval of Congress has slipped to single digits but Democrats still retain a double-digit lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot. Voters perceive Barack Obama as closer to the political center now than they did a month ago and, strongly oppose a proposal that would lower the speed limit national to 55 miles-per-hour.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Daily tracking results are collected
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, July 12, 2008
The race for the White House is tied. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attract 43% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, Obama holds a statistically insignificant 47% to 46% advantage. Today is the first time that McCain’s support has moved above 45% since Obama clinched the nomination on June 3. It’s also the first time the candidates have been tied since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).
For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points. It remains to be seen whether this recent tightening of the race reflects real change or is merely statistical noise. Check out our weekly review—What They Told Us—to see what was on voters’ minds this past week.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Obama receives unfavorable reviews from 44% of voters while McCain is viewed unfavorably by 41%. McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 22% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 54%.
Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain--29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables). Among unaffiliated voters, 18% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 16% say the same about McCain.
It is interesting to note that 55% of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 33% of Republicans are that enthusiastic about their nominee. However, 86% of Republicans have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of McCain while only 80% of Democrats have such an opinion of Obama. Other key stats on the race can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Rasmussen Markets shows there are no clear favorites for the Veepstakes in either political party. However, the markets currently give Obama a 67.2% chance of winning the White House.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227. Recent state polling provided good news for Obama in Wisconsin and North Dakota while McCain improved his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.
Other data released today shows that voters consider cutting government spending more important than balancing the budget. Voters also strongly reject Obama’s call for bilingualism and 46% support a military response if Iran attacks Israel. Voter approval of Congress has slipped to single digits but Democrats still retain a double-digit lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot. Voters perceive Barack Obama as closer to the political center now than they did a month ago and, strongly oppose a proposal that would lower the speed limit national to 55 miles-per-hour.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
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