Thursday, July 24, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
State and other polling data is released daily at 7:00 a.m., Noon, 3:00 p.m., and 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Yesterday’s releases showed a toss-up in Florida while Obama leads in Minnesota.
Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of voters, McCain by 54%. While the single point difference is statistically insignificant, it is the first time in two weeks that Obama has topped McCain in the favorable category. Voters continue to have stronger opinions about Obama than McCain. Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 28% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers are 17% Very Favorable, 20% Very Unfavorable. Other key stats are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 64.9% chance of winning the White House. On Thursday morning, the markets also suggest that Mitt Romney and Evan Bayh are the top running mate prospects. Polling shows similar expectations.
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New polling released today shows that most Americans believe suspected terrorists should be tried by military tribunals rather than in U.S. courts. Data released yesterday shows that—for the first time since 2004—a majority of voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters believe that most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election while only 14% believe reporters are trying to help McCain.
Four years ago today, John Kerry enjoyed a two-point lead over George W. Bush (three points with leaners). That was down slightly from the day before when the Massachusetts Senator reached the high-water mark for his campaign heading into the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Kerry didn’t get a bounce from that Convention but was able to hang on to a very small lead until late-August (see Election 2004 daily tracking summary).
One big difference today is that fewer voters are committed to a candidate at this point in the 2008 cycle. In Election 2004, 92% had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (97% with leaners). That left only 8% of voters who were still persuadable and most of those were leaning one day or another. This year, 86% say they’ll vote for either Obama or McCain. That leaves 14% who are persuadable, most of whom are not leaning towards either candidate.
From a practical point of view, that means Election 2004 was all about getting out the base vote. In Election 2008, the candidates still need to make their case to a significant pool of undecided voters.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Everyone can review recent demographic highlights on Election 2008.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
