Wednesday, July 23, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. These results come as—for the first time since 2004—a majority of voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror.
While Obama has been on an overseas tour, 45% of voters say the Democratic hopeful is too inexperienced to be President. That’s up four percentage points from a week ago. An equal number—45%--disagree with that assessment and say Obama has the necessary experience.
State polling released yesterday provided good news for Obama in Colorado and for McCain in Ohio. Today, at noon Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Florida. New data will be released from polling in Minnesota as well, an update on the Senate race at 3:00 p.m. Eastern and the Presidential numbers at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.
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With official Washington buzzing about a possible running mate announcement, a plurality of voters expect McCain to select Mitt Romney as his running mate. Also, a plurality sees Hillary Clinton as Obama’s best choice but far fewer think she will get the nod.
You can review recent demographic highlights on Election 2008 and you can also check out other key stats at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Four years ago today, John Kerry enjoyed a three-point lead over George W. Bush (five points with leaners). That turned out to be the high-water mark for the Massachusetts Senator, just days before the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Kerry didn’t get a bounce from that Convention but was able to hang on to a very small lead until late-August (see Election 2004 daily tracking summary).
One big difference today is that fewer voters are committed to a candidate at this point in the 2008 cycle. In Election 2004, 93% had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (97% with leaners). That left only 7% of voters who were still persuadable and most of those were leaning one day or another. This year, 87% say they’ll vote for either Obama or McCain. That leaves 13% who are persuadable, most of whom are not leaning towards either candidate.
From a practical point of view, that means Election 2004 was all about getting out the base vote. In Election 2008, the candidates still need to make their case to a significant pool of undecided voters.
New data released yesterday reveals an Inconvenient Perception about Al Gore’s recent proposals—voters tend to view them as unrealistic and costly. Still, 53% have a favorable opinion of the former Vice President. Democrats hold a nine-percentage point advantage in the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters believe that most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election while only 14% believe reporters are trying to help McCain. Other data shows that voters tend to think reporters are trying to make both the economy and Iraq seem worse than they really are. In a video commentary, Scott Rasmussen notes that this data suggests “voters are looking at reporters in the way reporters want us to look at Wikipedia.” They provide “a nice reference point, but ultimately you have to check out the facts for yourself.”
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.3% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
