Tuesday, July 29, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is gone. Obama now attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. Compared to a week ago, Obama has gained a single percentage point (see recent daily results).
However, the week’s polling showed a roller-coaster of opinion surrounding Obama’s big speech. The event in Berlin was well-covered and initial reviews on the speech were positive. Polling on Thursday and Friday nights was very strong for the Democrat, leading to a six-point advantage in our Saturday morning release. However, polling for the past three days shows no trace of a bounce. The data looks very similar to results from the period preceding the speech and, with fourteen weeks to go, the race for the White House is a toss-up. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans (see other recent demographic highlights).
Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 54%. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
As Vice Presidential rumors swirl about Tim Kaine, 20% of voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of the Virginia Governor. Another 20% have an unfavorable view while most have no opinion. John Edwards and Hillary Clinton have the highest favorable among the rumored running mate prospects. On the GOP side, Huckabee, Lieberman, and Romney are each viewed favorably by more than 40% of voters.
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At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the offshore drilling debate in Congress. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest Generic Congressional Ballot update will be released and this week’s War on Terror update will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Premium Members can review this data first by checking out the Daily Snapshot.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 62.7% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
