Tuesday, July 15, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45%.
Over the weekend, when the tracking poll showed the candidates tied, it was unclear whether the tightening of the race shown in the poll was statistical noise or real change. At the moment, it appears to be a little of both. The race seems to be a bit closer than it’s been for most of the past month-and-a-half, but Obama still has a slight lead. It will take a few more days to see if this assessment holds or if Obama can regain his five point lead (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).
A review of Rasmussen Reports full week tracking confirms the slight tightening of the race. Seven-day tracking shows less volatility than three-day tracking and is based upon interviews with 7,000 Likely Voters each week. For the first five weeks after clinching the Democratic nomination, Obama led McCain 49% to 44% in every week but one. The sole exception found Obama ahead 49% to 43%. However, for the seven days ending July 13, Obama leads McCain 47% to 45% (see crosstabs).
Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. Other key stats on the race can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released new state polls in South Dakota, Louisiana, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.
New Senate polls show good news for incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and not so good news for incumbent Republican Norm Coleman in Minnesota.
Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.0% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
