Wednesday, July 30, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that Barack Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
In the race for the White House, there are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights). While much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans. Full crosstabs and a demographic profile of the uncommitted voters are available for Premium Members.
Premium Members can also visit the Daily Snapshot for an advance look the latest numbers on Obama’s trip, who voters trust on economic and national security issues, and Congressional ratings.
Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% of voters. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Data released yesterday shows that Americans are split as to whether offshore oil drilling or cracking down on speculators is more important in the battle against high gas prices. As far as public opinion is concerned, the best answer would be to do both.
Democrats have a thirteen-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot half of the nation’s voters say the U.S. is winning the War on Terror and 50% prefer a pro-growth tax policy over one that guarantees tax fairness. The Rasmussen Employment Index gained a point in July but confidence in the employment arena remains very low. Just over 21% of workers say their firms are hiring while just under 21% say their firms are letting people go.
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Speculation that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine would be named as Barack Obama’s running mate is running high. Larry Sabato takes a look at Kaine’s plusses and minuses, while Rasmussen Markets data shows Kaine to be the frontrunner.
At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on response to Obama’s overseas trip. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska and Mississippi. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for the Presidential race in Nebraska and Mississippi.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 61.3% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
