Monday, July 14, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. The candidates had been tied at 43% for the past two days.
When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights). McCain’s improvement in the polls comes as more Americans believe it is possible for the U.S. to win the war in Iraq.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 41%. For Obama, the numbers are 54% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Other key stats on the race can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227. New state polling data will be released each afternoon this week.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 66.6% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
