Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). Other polling shows that, in a hypothetical match-up, Obama leads the current President by twenty percentage points while Hillary Clinton does a bit better than Obama against McCain. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.
New data released this morning shows that growing numbers of Americans see the U.S. winning the War on Terror. Expectations of improvement in Iraq are up significantly as well. Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release statewide polling data for the Presidential and Senate races in Oregon and Kansas.
Currently, McCain leads by a 60% to 26% margin among Evangelical Christians and holds a very slight edge over Obama among other Protestant voters and Catholic voters. Obama holds a thirty-five point advantage among all other voters. Most voters who attend Church at least weekly support McCain and most who rarely or never attend services prefer Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).
Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. McCain is viewed favorably by 71% of Evangelical Christians, 59% of other Protestant voters, and 64% of Catholic voters. Obama earns favorable reviews from 39% of Evangelical Christians, 53% of other Protestant voters, and 51% of Catholic voters. Among all other voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 67%, McCain by 38% (see other recent demographic highlights).
In addition to favorability ratings, other key stats on the race for the White House can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
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Monday, Rasmussen Reports released new state polls in South Dakota, Louisiana, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.1% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
