Tuesday, August 05, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again-- Barack Obama and John McCain each attract 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports also released state polling data for Arizona, Alabama, and Connecticut.
This is the second straight day showing McCain with a statistically insignificant advantage nationally over Obama. These two days are the first time that the GOP hopeful has enjoyed a lead of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3. Overall, however, these results are consistent with results from the past couple of weeks showing a race that is essentially even as the convention season approaches (see recent daily results).
Premium Members can review the latest numbers measuring confidence in the War on Terror and other topics at the Daily Snapshot.
Yesterday, Obama delivered a major speech on the energy issue. Voters like the idea of Obama’s proposed energy credit for working families, but they give mixed reviews to calls for a windfall profits tax on oil companies.
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends). Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decent (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends).
Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Polling data released earlier today showed that 46% say Affirmative Action programs are no longer necessary, but 32% believe they should continue.
Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at the week’s key polls to see What They Told Us. Earlier, Rasmussen Reports released data on a topic of interest to poll junkies and armchair campaign analysts alike--day-of-week polling bias. There is little evidence to support the notion that some days of the week poll better for Republicans while other days are better for Democrats.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 59.2% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
We invite you to review recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
