Monday, September 15, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 47% (see recent daily results). Results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern every day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
This is the fourth straight day that McCain has been at 49% or above. Prior to this recent stretch, the Republican nominee had not topped 48% on any day since Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination in early June. Still, today’s results show Obama a point closer to McCain than he’s been for the last three days.
Prior to the conventions, the tracking poll consistently showed a very close race--occasionally tied, but with Obama typically ahead by a point or two. For the past week, the race has remained very close but with a slight advantage for McCain. However, 17% of voters say they’re either uncommitted or could change their mind between now and Election Day. This suggests that the debates, which begin a week from Friday, could be especially important this year.
Forty-three percent (43%) of voters are certain they will vote for McCain and not change their mind. Forty percent (40%) say the same about Obama.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 54% (see trends). Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new data showing whether voters believe McCain, Obama, and their running mates are prepared to be President (Premium Members can get a sneak peek and see the results now).
At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
A video analysis for Premium Members looks at whether public dissatisfaction with Bush is the result of competence issues or ideology… and suggests that the answer could have implications for Election 2008.
Voters are now evenly divided as to who they think will win in November, but McCain voters are now more excited about the election than Obama’s. Separately, Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a 51.6% chance of victory while expectations for Obama are at 47.0%. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows McCain leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama has the edge in states with 193 votes. When “leaners” are included, shows Obama leading 259-247 (see Quick Campaign Overview). A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).
Last week, Rasmussen Reports released polling data for Nevada, Missouri. Washington, Michigan, Idaho, Wyoming, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Premium Members see demographic crosstabs for all state polling data. Learn More.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. During the final two months of Election 2008, party weighting targets are updated each Sunday (see additional information). For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
