Thursday, July 17, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. State polling released yesterday showed Obama with a steady lead in Oregon and McCain with a twenty-point lead in Kansas.
McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans and holds an eleven-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. Obama leads among voters under 30 while McCain has the edge among those over 65. The two candidates are even among voters aged 30-64 (see other recent demographic highlights). Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind before November. Another 34% are that certain about voting for McCain. That leaves 32% open to changing their mind before voting and creates a potential for either candidate to open a significant lead in the fall. Other key stats on the race for the White House can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
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New data released this morning shows that 48% of voters agree with Obama and believe Iraq is not the central front in the War on Terror. This comes a day after polling showed that growing numbers of Americans see the U.S. winning the War on Terror. Other new data shows that Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on seven of ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports.
Senate polling released yesterday showed Oregon Senator Gordon Smith remains vulnerable this election cycle. But, Republicans can take more comfort in the Senate polling from Kansas.
At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in North Carolina. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the race in Nevada and Arkansas. A North Carolina Senate update will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.
Monday, Rasmussen Reports released new state polls in South Dakota, Louisiana, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 66.0% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
