Sunday, August 17, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (Premium Members can see more at the Daily Snapshot).
The race for the White House has been remarkably stable of late. For the past three weeks, Obama’s support (with leaners) has been between 46% and 48% every day. During that three-week stretch, McCain’s support has been between 45% and 47% every day and the candidates have been within one or two points of each other every day.
When Obama first clinched the nomination, he opened a lead over McCain that was consistently in the five percentage point range. Then, following the Fourth of July, McCain began to gain a little traction leading to the close race we have today. It appears that the energy issue—offshore oil drilling in particular—has helped the Republican hopeful.
State polls tend to lag a bit behind the national trend because individual states are not polled on a daily basis. But, data released this week from North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, and Missouri confirmed the national trend and showed just how close this race is on the eve of the two nominating conventions.
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What They Told Us, our weekly review of last week’s key polls notes that there were more troubling numbers for the media this week. The Saturday morning feature also touches on the energy issue, Social Security, the Russian invasion of Georgia, and more. During the past week, the Rasmussen Consumer Index showed consumer confidence rising to the highest levels since early March.
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Obama is now viewed favorably by 54% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 53% (see trends). Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 60.7 % chance of winning the White House. On Sunday morning, the markets see Evan Bayh and Joe Biden as the most likely running mates for Obama. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty are the current favorites.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
