Friday, August 01, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 55%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Premium Members can also visit the Daily Snapshot for an advance look at new polling on affirmative action and other Election 2008 topics.
Voters continue to have stronger opinions about Obama than McCain. Thirty-two percent (32%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democrat while 27% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 17% Very Unfavorable. Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) and we will keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 21% name national security issues. Twelve percent (12%) say that domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care are the highest priority, 9% name fiscal issues such as taxes and government while 5% focus primarily on cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.
As with everything in a political election season, there is a partisan divide on priorities. Among Democrats, 53% say the economy is most important, 17% name domestic issues as their primary concern, and 14% say national security. For Republicans, 35% focus first on national security, 31% on the economy, and 14% on fiscal issues. As for those not affiliated with either major party, 51% say the economy is number one and 16% say the top issue is national security.
Obama leads by 19 points among those who say economic issues are most important while McCain leads by 39 among national security voters. Obama also leads among those focused on domestic issues while McCain leads among those whose top priority is fiscal issues or cultural issues.
On a different topic, as charges of racism have been raised by the two Presidential campaigns, polling shows that a steadily growing number of Americans say they are prepared to vote for an African-American President.
Also today, Rasmussen Reports has issued an analysis on a topic of interest to poll junkies and armchair campaign analysts alike, day-of-week polling bias. A review of the data since June 3 shows little evidence to support the notion that some days of the week poll better for Republicans while other days are better for Democrats.
Four years ago today, John Kerry led George W. Bush by four points (49% to 45%) and by five with leaners (51% to 46%). That matched his best day ever and was the last time he enjoyed such a sizable lead. At this point four years ago, the Democratic National Convention had already been held.
Rasmussen Reports data released yesterday shows that indicted Alaska Senator Ted Stevens trails by double digits in his bid for re-election. Proving once again that voters are willing to grade politicians on a curve, 66% say Stevens is at least as ethical as most politicians. An update by Larry Sabato says Stevens is headed for defeat..
Other data released yesterday for the Presidential race in Kentucky, Montana, and Texas. Also, for the Kentucky Senate race and the Montana Governor’s race. At noon Eastern Time today, data will be released on the Presidential race in Alaska. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers on the Texas Senate will be released.
Thirty percent (30%) of conservative Democrats plan to vote for John McCain. Nineteen percent (19%) of White Democrats say the same. There are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters today as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 62.9% chance of winning the White House.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
