Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, July 12, 2008
The race for the White House is tied. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attract 43% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, Obama holds a statistically insignificant 47% to 46% advantage. Today is the first time that McCain’s support has moved above 45% since Obama clinched the nomination on June 3. It’s also the first time the candidates have been tied since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights).
For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points. It remains to be seen whether this recent tightening of the race reflects real change or is merely statistical noise. Check out our weekly review—What They Told Us—to see what was on voters’ minds this past week.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Obama receives unfavorable reviews from 44% of voters while McCain is viewed unfavorably by 41%. McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 22% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 54%.
Opinions are more strongly held about Obama than McCain--29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are 17% Very Favorable and 18% Very Unfavorable (see recent daily favorables). Among unaffiliated voters, 18% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 16% say the same about McCain.
It is interesting to note that 55% of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 33% of Republicans are that enthusiastic about their nominee. However, 86% of Republicans have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of McCain while only 80% of Democrats have such an opinion of Obama. Other key stats on the race can be found at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Rasmussen Markets shows there are no clear favorites for the Veepstakes in either political party. However, the markets currently give Obama a 67.2% chance of winning the White House.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 171 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 293, McCain 227. Recent state polling provided good news for Obama in Wisconsin and North Dakota while McCain improved his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.
Other data released today shows that voters consider cutting government spending more important than balancing the budget. Voters also strongly reject Obama’s call for bilingualism and 46% support a military response if Iran attacks Israel. Voter approval of Congress has slipped to single digits but Democrats still retain a double-digit lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot. Voters perceive Barack Obama as closer to the political center now than they did a month ago and, strongly oppose a proposal that would lower the speed limit national to 55 miles-per-hour.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
