Friday, July 25, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows a bounce for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. Just three days ago, the candidates were tied at 46% (with leaners).
This is the first time that Obama has enjoyed a five point advantage since July 8. It’s also the first time he has reached the 49% level of support since that date. In June, Obama’s support stayed within a point of the 49% level virtually every day and the Democrat typically led by about five percentage points. The race has been closer over the past couple of weeks (see recent daily results). As with any bounce in the polls, it will take a few days to determine whether it reflects a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise.
Overall, Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. In last night’s polling, 50% had already seen coverage of Obama’s Berlin speech. Initial reactions to the speech will be reported at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today. Premium Members can review the results early by checking out the Daily Snapshot. Also available for Premium Members are the latest numbers on support for offshore oil drilling.
Data released yesterday showed Obama with modest leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. New data released this morning shows McCain leading by nineteen points among those who have served in the military See other recent demographic highlights on Election 2008. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Forty-six percent (46%) of voters say that economic issues are most important this season while 22% say national security issues are the highest priority. Twelve percent (12%) are focused on domestic issues like social security and health care, 8% on fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending, and, finally, 4% on cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion. Other key stats on the race are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
Polling data released yesterday shows that most Americans believe suspected terrorists should be tried by military tribunals rather than in U.S. courts. Data released yesterday shows that—for the first time since 2004—a majority of voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters believe that most reporters are trying to help Obama win the election while only 14% believe reporters are trying to help McCain.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 63.5% chance of winning the White House. On Thursday morning, the markets also suggest that Mitt Romney and Evan Bayh are the top running mate prospects. Polling shows similar expectations.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.
