Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
"We are smiling more today than we were when we walked through the door at the start of the week."
Because they had a "Watershed Event" based on the
"Engine and Transmission" which will cause
a "Hockey Stick".
Why is it that management is always smiling and the shareholders rarely smile.
I atill say the 1.5% rate may save us if we ever figure out how to get a court date with a 3G infringer.
This stock is like watching a snail cross the road. Slow moving and painful.
This is getting very frustrating, jusr wish they would act and not just re-act.
OT: Thanks Jim,
IMO, IDCC has been like a beautiful girl you fall in Love with marry but she keeps cheating on you. You just keep hoping that one day she will be faithful.
Right now I'm not a happy camper. I'm holding my tounge until this quarters numbers come out. If they have some good things to say I'll be satisfied. If we get low numbers with the same old reasons I might have to lighten up and look elseware.
All I'm looking for is progress. It seems to me that new licenses and any thype of momentum is stuck right now in the NOKIA ZONE. Anyway I'm sitting tight until November 15th or sometime before when numbers come out.
GE_Jim,
Sorry don't understand the chart or technical trading for that matter. Can you please elaborate on the price patterns that you expect and also if you can give a brief Technical trading 101. I've always wanted to understand it but really do not have a grasp. I also think it would be helpful to other members of this borad.
Thanks.
No catalyst in sight except for earnings.
No volume / 307,707.
Today was about 1/4 of average volume (1,130,136).
Haven't hit average in 12 trading days.
Figured we would pick up some buyers from Telcomm world but it
looks like everyone is wait and see. November will be a big month. Earnings then back to Judge Lynn on the 24th. I really hope she gives all the shareholders a nice thanksgiving present and denies Nokias motions.
13-Oct-03 17.10 17.12 16.64 16.95 345,400 16.95
10-Oct-03 16.69 16.79 16.08 16.59 446,900 16.59
9-Oct-03 17.00 17.25 16.42 16.58 621,700 16.58
8-Oct-03 17.17 17.20 16.67 16.85 431,500 16.85
7-Oct-03 16.76 17.16 16.47 17.13 409,700 17.13
6-Oct-03 16.35 16.79 16.05 16.60 467,700 16.60
3-Oct-03 15.99 16.86 15.95 16.25 579,400 16.25
2-Oct-03 15.00 15.99 15.00 15.68 685,100 15.68
1-Oct-03 15.17 15.69 15.05 15.60 602,300 15.60
30-Sep-03 15.25 15.50 15.00 15.03 562,500 15.03
29-Sep-03 15.59 15.64 14.80 15.32 1,090,500 15.32
26-Sep-03 15.53 15.71 15.20 15.50 1,178,100 15.50
OT. SIRI Radio.
I'm been advising people to stay away from SIRI.
SIRI has a 2.28B market cap that more than 2X IDCC's. If someone wanted to buy this company they would have to pay more. The question is whether the company is worth that figure or not.
Just look at revenue.
"For the second quarter of 2003, SIRIUS recognized total revenue of $2.1 million".
I can't see how a company that generated $2.1 million in revenue could be worth 2.28 Billion, PERIOD.
IMO, the most important factor that IDCC could accomplish would be continued growth in both earnings and revenues. That being said I would not like to see any more buybacks or any dividends declared.
I think IDCC needs to invest in talent, specifically in sales and business development. I'd really like to see some progress in licensing other companies like Lucent.
"Lucent Technologies to Trial 3G W-CDMA Network in Miami With AT&T Wireless
Monday October 13, 8:01 am ET
MURRAY HILL, N.J., Oct. 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU - News) today announced that it is working with AT&T Wireless (NYSE: AWE - News) to deploy a third-generation (3G) W-CDMA (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access) trial network in the greater Miami area to evaluate mobile voice and high-speed data services. Lucent already has achieved several key milestones in the project -- its first 3G W-CDMA deployment in North America -- including the successful completion of a series of voice and data calls on the network."
Maybe someone who has a good relationship to IR get us to insert 2 or 3 email questions. I know they have done this before. If we act in unison and not bombard the process we can get certain key questions asked in a public forem.
I realize that the CC are normally controled by the analyst and for good reasons. The hour time limit flys by when these guys get going. 5 minutes at the end for shareholder questions is good for investor relations.
Thank you very much Desert dweller for the update.
IMO the license excution is key because of the rate. The more 3G rates that get set on IDCC terms (1.5% or better) the stronger the position down the road. I still beleive that IDCC may end up in court over 3G rates. It will be hard for another company to argue for a lower rate if a series of companies already agreed to a higher one.
In response to your comment about Panasonic signing up early without a 3G product launch. What about the fact that the contract signing gave them access to designs which helped them build their products. Does IDCC provide blueprints for companies to build technology? If I sign a license wouldn't I be able to access engineering talent to help my product get launched?
Anyone here anything on Matsushita (Panasonic)?
A while back there were some posts relating to patent approvals in Japan. No one asked any questions on this subject during the last CC. Does anyone know if the JPO ruled or what time frame is estimated in getting a ruling.
An inside buy is always positive.
The discounts don't concern me I like the fact that these guys are taking cash and buying stock.
If I may borrow from an old Dire Straits song.
"Future(s) look bright gotta where shades"
Pre-market buy 1000 shares at $15.75.
-Market / After Hours Market Oct. 2, 2003 Market Close: $ 15.68
Pre-Market Trade Reporting Friday October 3
Pre-Market
Last: $15.75 Pre-Market
Best Bid: N/A Pre-Market
High: $15.75
Pre-Market
Volume: 1,000 Pre-Market
Best Ask: N/A Pre-Market
Low: $15.75
Pre-Market
Time (ET) Pre-Market
Price Pre-Market
Share Volume
08.34 $ 15.75 1000
Looks like we will open to the upside. $16 here we come.
mschere really nice read.
Doesn't the United States have laws against companies joining together in collusion to cause price fixing?
"Recently, Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung created a joint venture in order to cap royalties on WCDMA handsets, and Nokia reiterated this goal during its mid-year strategy update in June. This alliance could make it more difficult for InterDigital to negotiate licensing contracts with leading handset OEMs. However, as InterDigital gains more customers, we believe the company strengthens its negotiating position. Further, portions of the WCDMA standard contain wording from InterDigital’s patents, and thus the company should receive a portion of the WCDMA equipment market. While we do expect InterDigital to receive royalty payments from 3G
equipment sales, the size of contracts with OEMs and the timing of finalizing such contracts create some uncertainty to InterDigital’s longer-term financial model."
"the 3G standards process would make 3G licensing easier than 2G".
The standards may help in determining whether an IPR holder should get paid but I don't believe the standards will help in determining how much or a rate in which a holder will get paid.
Before the ERICSSON settlement we were throwing numbers around from .75% all the way to 2% in regards to 2G licensing. I do not recall anyone thinking that .4% to .5% would be what IDCC would settle on. So when the .4 to .5 number happened I figured at least it was low enough for NOKIA to accept right.
Well NOKIA is balking and so their little Mini-Me (SAMSUNG).
As we all know they are taking the argument that ERICSON/SONY is not a trigger. So what rate would make NOKIA happy? .3, .2, .1?
The facts as I see them is that these companies are using the legal system as road blocks to prevent inventors from receiving their fair rewards for their creations. The fact that NOKIA wants to delay, unseal and fight proves that they will go to any lengths to not pay.
Basically, I just can't see how IDCC will collect fair royalty rates without a fight.
I totally agree with your point being start the suit now.
IMO we have 3 possible targets.
SAMSUNG - Now I'd like to sue SAMSUNG because they have joined the EVIL NOKIA to conspire against IDCC. They forgot that NOKIA has a 3G pass and they don't. IDCC can play hardball and drag their butt into court.
Only problem with this is it may hinder a settlement so I'd put a SAMSUNG suit last.
LG - LG will probably try to hide behind QUALCOMS skirt the way SAMSUNG is hiding behind NOKIA's. These guys just signed with QCOM so they are fair game.
The only issue here would be how much of an effect would it have if IDCC beat up LG. SAMSUNG might just say SO WHAT and still fight on.
MOTOROLA - DING! DING! DING
The more I think about the more I'm convinced that IDCC should go right after MOTOROLA jugular on 3G. Think about it. First, it would be like the skinny kid that got beat up by the bully coming back after he built up his musles and kicking the crap out of the BULLY. If IDCC did this all other 3G infridgers would immediately start licencing. Talk about a watershed event.
Second, Motorola is never going to hand IDCC money for anything. Their is no danger of spoiling a relationship or hurting a possible future license because they will never license with IDCC without being forced to.
IDCC might as well start the clock on Motorola 3G now and hope that they can get the whole thing done in 2 years. I can't understand why ERICSSON took so long.
They can't sue NOKIA because NOKIA is licenced for 3G and awaiting major manufacturer to "trigger" rate just like 2G.
But they can sue SAMSUNG. I still say a law suit at this time is the best route to go. No one else will blink at the 1.5% rate for 3G. If they can start now and go right for the jugular meaning no negotiations off of the 1.5% they can have this done in 1 1/2 to 2 years. A win will validate the 3G patents and get them a court proven rate of 1.5%.
IMO, Judge Lynn used the Hammer of unsealing the DOCS to get ERICSON and IDCC to agree to a deal. She may very well want this hearing on Nov 24th to see if she can get NOKIA and IDCC to agree.
mschere,
Have you worked up this quarters estimates yet?
SAMSUNG News and Agressive Moves.
The Market took SAMSUNG news to be BAD. I've been telling anyone who was waiting for an opportunity to get into IDCC to buy into this news which I perceive to be GOOD.
The 3 point run down from last fridays close is IMO related to a correction in the NASDAQ and a misinterpretation of the SAMSUNG news by the market. I feel this is a very temporary situation and we should be back at $18+ by the next earnings release in November.
Waiting for the Nokia phase II rate is becoming a bigger saga than the Ericsson law suit. Years of waiting for Nokia to decide that they will select a rate has lead to much frustration amoung shareholders. The news that IDCC is aggressive pursuing SAMSUNG is good news for investors who are tired of waiting. Patience is the name of the game in investing but delay and stall seems to be the name of the game for NOKIA and SAMSUNG. Forcing SAMSUNG to start the arbitration clock now is the right move.
What would happen if IDCC wins the NOKIA arbritration in June and NOKIA is forced to pay .5% then SAMSUNG decides that they wish to arbitrate their aggreement at that time? Does it then take another year past the arbitration resolution of NOKIA for SAMSUNG to be resolved.
If court resolutions are inevitable then they might as well start the clock rolling. That is why I'd like to see at least one 3G law suit. Just think of how a 3G win against an LG and a granting of the 1.5% NEC rate would position IDCC for futher licenses. Litigation of the 3G patents may very well be inevitable. I can't see Motorola signing an agreement with IDCC. They beat IDCC once and probably feel they can beat them again. But how would Motorola feel after IDCC wins a 3G patent infringement case and a 1.5% rate?
I hoping the company gets very aggressive in the next few months.
I stand corrected. I have no legal experiance at all and bow to your expertise.
If I may, the problem with IDCC giving a pre-release of earnings is that IDCC does not sell any products and rely on other companies to report sales to them. Even if we think the quarter will be good IDCC must wait until each of its licenses report. This is a very unusual model. Other companies can just look at the sales channel and see that the volumes are increasing. IDCC can not. So I do not thing we will be seeing any pre-release.
MOTOROLA having camera phone woes.
Motorola Falls on Cell-Phone Worries
By TSC Staff
09/26/2003 08:47 AM EDT
Motorola (MOT:NYSE - commentary - research) was shaping up as a battleground stock Friday after J.P. Morgan made positive comments about its prospects for realignment while a news story suggested it could face a lean Christmas.
The bears had the upper hand early with the stock down 43 cents, or 3.4%, to $12.10 in premarket trading.
The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that delays in the production of cell-phones equipped with digital cameras could mean Motorola won't have the product in time for the holiday buying season. The company is already far behind rivals like Nokia (NOK:NYSE - commentary - research) and Samsung, the newspaper noted, and won't have any such phones to sell to Verizon Wireless, the Verizon (VZ:NYSE - commentary - research) and Vodafone (VOD:NYSE - commentary - research) venture.
The company also probably won't have a camera phone for AT&T Wireless (AWE:NYSE - commentary - research) in time for Christmas, the Journal reported.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan said in a research note that new management should be able to squeeze 21 cents a share worth of accretion out of a business realignment in which it sells its wireless and cable infrastructure segments and half its semiconductor business.
The brokerage raised the stock from overweight to neutral.
Several analysts have raised their rating on the stock after Chief Executive Chris Galvin said Friday he would be stepping down. Galvin was viewed as an obstacle to restructuring and J.P. Morgan expects new management to be more open to change.
When you think about IDCC's strategy is pretty good.
They need 2 rates to be established to collect royalties from all the wireless players.
First the 2 and 2.5g rates. This mess got cleaned up good by the ERICSON settlement. Basically setting a firm date of Jan 1 2002 and a firm rate of .5%. Put everything behind and force others to abide by this agreement.
Next 3G. The NEC deal was the key. The 1.5% sets the base for all others to follow. Now if they go to court and win, a court can easily grant them the 1.5% NEC is paying plus damages.
The problem with the company in the past is negotiating from weakness instead of strength. It needed NOKIA and the $57 million to survive. With the company flush with cash and licenses it can now be less tolerant during these negotiations and can pull the court card faster.
Think about it, the only reason anyone would pay royalties on IPR is if they were worried about a law suit. That is why we have to take out the HAMMER and force the 1.5% down infringers throats.
IMO, the reason SAMSUNG is requesting the documents is that it is the only viable method to battle NOKIA's contract. I'm sure both legal teams are talking to each other, NOKIA and SAMSUNG and both are discussing strategies.
This case will play out and I'm sure however it plays out for NOKIA will play the same way for SAMSUNG.
I think IDCC should focus on 3G and leave this to the attorneys to solve. Get agressive and do not let infringers sell 3G products without licenses. If our 3G patents are better written than the 2G ones I'd start going after anyone without a license.
IDCC has cash in the bank and 4 solid licenses in NEC, SHARP, ERICSSON and newly added RIMM. They are profitable now and will be drawing additional revenue from IFX next June. Roll the dice and go after SAMSUNG and LG for 3G. Let them start to sweat when then find out that the phones they are now producing they may not be able to sell because of a court order. If they won't pay the 1.5% royalty on 3G let's get a court to order them to pay 1.5%.
NEC really was the key. If IDCC wins in court it can easily force NEC's rate on an infringer. The problem of the past has been IDCC's tolerance for negotiation. Infringers use negotiations as stall tactics. Go for the 1.5% in court and see if SAMSUNG can wiggle out.
In reading all the posts on the SAMSUNG arb the post below one by DISHFAN makes the most sense to me.
SAMSUNG won the right to a NOKIA contract. The NOKIA contract defines the way a rate is set. IMO, IDCC agressively pursued this path with SAMSUMG until they decided to go back to arbitration.
No one wants to pay royalties. The only way to get companies to pay IPR is by force. NOKIA stonewalled IDCC for 2 years on its rates and SAMSUNG piggybacked NOKIA. Time for IDCC to let the DOGS out (F & J) and start some CEASE and DESIST orders regarding SAMSUNG 3G phone sales. That would shake up these guys big time. It seems that many more patent law suits have been victorious as of late. Both RIMM and MSFT lost two big cases.
loop, you said "Samsung has selected Nok for its rates and when they begin.".
I don't see it that way.
Samsung was awarded the same MFL rights and obligations that Nokia has. But not the Nok rate, necessarily.
So, InterDig is telling Samsung that the Ericsson settlement determined Samsung's rate (just like it says in the MFL clause). Samsung disagrees for some reason.
The first arbitration determined that Samsung was eligible for the MFL clause. This second arbitration will determine whether or not the Ericsson settlement triggers a rate under the MFL clause.
I was assuming InterDig would leave Samsung alone until Nokia (the big dog) was settled. To me, this news indicates InterDig's agressiveness - a good sign, IMO. Perhaps the Ericsson settlement (combined with nice royalties from NEC and Sharp) has virtually guaranteed positive cash flow for the foreseeable future and InterDig ain't gonna cave ever again.
Ouch what a haircut. $18.30 to $15.75 in 3 days.
25-Sep-03 16.60 16.85 15.75 15.83 1,620,000 15.83
24-Sep-03 18.13 18.30 17.18 17.27 822,500 17.27
23-Sep-03 17.93 18.30 17.92 18.14 531,800 18.14
Typical market overreaction to irrelevant news. Samsung arbitrates well anyone who has owned this stock and has been following this story knows that this is pretty much meaningless in the large scheme of things.
Samsung was never going to settle with IDCC until NOKIA did. In fact they won the right to this during the last arbitration. Now if IDCC is putting the screws on Samsung I say it is about time. Samsung wants to copy their newly found friend but they forgot about this little thing called 3G infringement. Seems that NOKIA has a 3G license and SAMSUNG doesn't. So now NOKIA can fight all it wants and IDCC can not go after them for infrigement. Samsung on the other hand needs a 3G license to sell phones. If I'm IDCC I hit them with an infridement suit on 3G. Go right for the jugular.
It is obviuos these guys colluded to both prevent the 2G payments and attempt to hold down 3G. It will be very interesting to see if IDCC goes after SAMSUNG and NOKIA trys to assist them in the fight against IDCC.
With all the good numbers and projections from NEC, SHARP, ERICSON and RIMM we will be back over 18 by the 15th of November which is the latest IDCC can release next quarters earnings. So break out the Malox or Alka Selzer this stock is not for weak stomachs.
Hmmm, Options expiring today and we have a NOKIA settlement rumor. How convienant.
Last post on this topic.
For the good of this board can you please attempt to soften the tone of statements like this.
"Now hopefully, that rat fink Marsala and his twin, Tom Carpenter".
my3sons87 this isn't about the argument of your position or my position this is about attacking the analyst or any one else for that matter because we did not like what they said.
I posted some very mean sprited comments about Marsala after his report and attacked his name. I was very wrong to do this. I did this because I disliked what he said in his report and instead of debating his content I attacked his name. I will in the future refrain from any type of this attack.
To keep an intelligent level of discussion we all must respect each others opinions even the analysts. I also am guilty of hammering Marsala when he released the downgrade. I posted out of frustration that the stock went down. I was wrong.
The goal here is to make money. If we don't listen to opposite points of view we lose our objectivity and our investments become blind. Whether we agree with TC or Marsala is debatable but respecting their point of view should not be.
Case in point, the last CC. When Marsala started asking questions to Howard regarding actions that IDCC could take versus Nokia, how would it look if Howard started to bring up the downgrade and called Marsala stupid for doing this? Howard politely answered his question and follow ups with no emotion.
Both these analysts are still here. When IDCC delivers they will tell their clients to start purchasing shares again. This will drive the price up. So in my opinion a downgrade is far superior to dropped coverage.
Can we all please allow people to have a contrary opinion without accusing them of being short or trying to drive down the price. We should either agree or disagree and not attack posters for their opinions.
Does not make sense to me?
"it can still challenge the validity of the patents"
I'm no Lawyer but I would think Nokia would have had to be a party to this suit to challedge the validity of IDCC's patents or else start their own suit. How can they possibly jump in now and try to do this on a closed case?
Last post on this topic.
I've been here for 3 years. I'm still long and IDCC is my biggest position. I'll stand by my points expecting better and faster execution from this team. It is my right as an investor to expect the team to execute accordingly.
I'm sure many people disagree and that is fine with me. If status quo serves you well so be it. My only point is I want to see more action in light of the recent downgrades. I'm disappointed in the number of milestone accomplishments since the "Water Shed" event happened in March. It is clear that NOKIA and SAMSUNG are beyond the control of this team but I fully expected that we would see progress on numerous fronts like LG, LU, NT, PANASONIC, FUJITSU, PALM, IFX, etc.., etc.
"Why are you bashing your investment?"
How is requesting better execution BASHING?
I run my own company and have for many years. I have employees who are very good at what they do. When they drop the ball I ask them to step up and deliver better.
Now I/We are owners of IDCC. Asking them for better execution is no different than asking employees to step up and produce in a more effective manor. I have a choice in running my business. I can either loose my clients or ask more from my employees. If they need help to deliver it is my responsibility to provide the resources.
I use TC and Marsela as measuring sticks. If was bashing I'd be calling for COB removal, I am not. I'm calling for accelorated action in light of the Nokia delay and the 2 analyst downgrades. This I feel will sit better with analysts and institutions the groups we need if IDCC will get to the next level.
And I'm not selling just like I'm not firing people who take too long on projects. I'm calling for more action. PERIOD.
"why don't we let the management handle the IDCC plan".
Because two key analysts just told IDCC in no uncertain terms they are dropping the ball.
IDCC lost credibility by declaring victory over NOKIA/SAM. They wanted analyst coverage and institutional investing and they got it. This comes at a price. The price is that you no have more groups involved in your decisions. The 5 million share options defeat is an example of this. You also have these groups questioning your business plan and your team.
I do not see how putting pressure on this group to "STEP UP" is telling management how to handle the plan. I don't see any good coming out of totally ignoring TC's report. The only way to keep analyst coverage and keep managements plans in place is to execute faster. By TC calling for Harry's head he must be at the end of his patience. This is not a good thing. Some agressive steps by management can get Carpenter back on board and re-establish his faith in Harry and Company.
"just wait until"
This seems to be the theme of this investment.
Just wait until NOKIA phase II.
Just wait until JPO releases patents for PANASONIC.
Just wait until SAMSUNG arbitration.
Just wait until ERICSSON resolution.
Just wait intil NOKIA arbitration.
In my opinion, this company needs to be more agreesive. With the TC downgrade we are now in danger of losing a very valuable analyst. SHOULDA, COULDA, WOULDA comes to mind.
I'm not for any reckless move like replacing Harry. I just think that the passive ways of the past have stagnated this company. It is time for some new ideas and new tactics. Find a new partner who can develop new products in less time then IFX. Use the $120 million to expand the business into wireless services. Initiate a law suit on a company currently not licensced for 3G and who are shipping products (LG?). Bring top level people who can complement this team. Close some more small deals like RIMM (PALM?).
The analysts (TC and Marsela) basically are telling IDCC to put up or shut up and I'm sure they dislike the words "just wait until".
This business plan needs to be ACCELORATED.
With the last few years of some serious layoff at major communications companies I'll bet their are a number of qualified executives that can join this team. First and foremost a Business development specialist.
When the internet BOOM started in the mid to late 90's companies were told to get revenue in the door. At one point during the boom venture capitalists were looking for business plans for 3 year ramp up to $100 million in revenue.
Interdigital has never hot the $100 million mark. It is time to get creative and figure out different ways that will bring revenue in the door. Partnerships, consulting, new products, new licenses. Their does not seem to be any URGENCY in getting things done. That seems to be a sticking point with analysts.
The move of Hicks over to Governemnt work bothers me. Seems they are spreading the team thin. The 2 million share buyback is unneccesary and will never support the price. I'd like to see as step one going out and getting at least one Business Development specialist to help review new opportunities in bringing revenue in the door.
"How much of the Nokia/Samsung 2G recurring royalty and revenue income is built in to the $17.75 that IDCC is selling for today?"
NONE.
My analysis of a stock price ususally goes like this.
Shares outstanding
Sales per share
Gross Profit
Debt
Market Cap / Value
Possibility of revenue increasing
I like stocks that have a low number of outstanding shares.
Shares Outstanding 56.5M
This means that the stock can move very high very fast because these shares will be in demand.
QCOM is the only company you can analyse IDCC against that I know of.
They have Shares Outstanding 793.7M or 12x the amount of shares.
Sales per share. We need this number to rise
QCOM Sales (ttm) $4.83
idcc Sales (ttm) $1.82
Gross Profit - Can't get a better model than this.
Total Revenue $25,777,000
Cost Of Revenue N/A
Gross Profit $25,777,000
With no cost of goods sold every dime that IDCC makes goes to gross profit. Also costs have been pretty much consistant at approximately $20 mil a quarter including R&D. Bottom line every new dollar that comes in is profit.
Debt - Can't get much better than this either. No creditors to worry about. No bond holders in front of common stockholders. Plenty of cash on hand to fund any downturn in business. Long Term Debt $1,870,000.
Market Cap / Value - This is the number I use most often when I buy a stock. At a $1 billion cap do I think IDCC is worth more than $875 million. When I compute value I add debt and subtract cash. IDCC has no debt and $125 million in cash so the net is $875. What do I feel fair value of this company is. This is totally arbitrary. One can look at past values but not with IDCC. The 99/00 price spike can not be used because of the situation and market exhurberance. So one must projected revenue growth and value of IPR. IMO value of IPR, contracts, possibility of NOK/SAM favorable resolution and SIEMENS chip deal should bring this companies value to about $3 billion. Purely a guestimate with no numeric backing. But at $3 Billion the stock price would be $51 a share.
Lastly the possibility of rapid increase in revenue. Explosive revenue brings explosive price action. I count at least 8 events which will bring substantial revenue to IDCC in the next two years.
1. NOKIA resolution of 2G
2. SAMSUNG resolution of 2G.
3. ERICSON resolution of 3G.
4. NOKIA resolution of 3G.
5. SAMSUNG resolution of 3G.
6. SIEMENS resolution of 3G with chip deal.
7. MOTOROLA resolution of 3G.
8. PANASONIC resolution of 3G.
This does not include any low hanging fruit deals which may materialize like LG, Fujitsu, Palm, etc.
Bottom line this company is undervalued till about $50 in my estimations.
" However, I do think that it was unwise and not in the best judgment for many insiders to sell before the Nokia/Samsung royalty issue was finalized or arbitrated."
The MO for IDCC insiders was selling at different times. They all didn't wait for NOK/SAM to sell. IMO the insiders sold because they figured they could just issue more options. They did not expect the 5 million share option plan to be defeated. I think if anything they are guilty of greed and not insider trading. Many complained about this selling way before the ERIC settlement and how their trading killed IDCC's rallys.
JimLur,
I can't state enough times what a fantastic job you have done here and over at raging bull. I know many, many more shareholders are grateful for your efforts then those few that are upset because of your sale. I'm glad you decided to get back in because you deserve to profit from IDCC's success. In a way you have contributed to the success way more than IDCC's IR department.
I like the 2 board forum because I have become an IDCC junkie. More posts to read from different people.