New ground-to-air missiles add combat effectiveness to Chinese army
www.chinaview.cn 2004-06-22 19:53:18
BEIJING, June 22 (Xinhuanet) -- A Chinese army ground-to-air missile regiment has been equipped with missile systems that are among the world's most advanced, according to a military analyst and media reports.
Commenting on the report published on May 31 by the People's Daily, a mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China, a military analyst with Xinhua said that it was the first time Chinese media published a story on the regiment.
That missile system made its debut in a military parade marking the 50th founding anniversary of New China on October 1 of 1999, noted the analyst.
China's air force set up the country's first ground-to-air missile troops in early 1958, and the army began to found its ground-to-air missile units in November 1991 in an anti-aircraft division.
The regiment is part of the Nanjing Military Area Command, which commands troops in a vast region in east China, including those in areas across the Taiwan Straits.
Those with doctorate, master and bachelor degrees account for 64 percent of the officers with the regiment, including 130 with postgraduate education, according to the report by the People's Daily. Enditem
This is an admission by our present administration that during their tenure the United States has lost their dominant role.
In no way can this be considered a ‘high mark’. This in itself, the loss of dominance, is the greatest failure for which a president can be found guilty.
When Bush took office the United States was the sole superpower in a uni-polar world. The invasion of Iraq was a study in dominance by way of unilateral action and military superiority. They now confess that the world has become multi-polar with the rise of China. While China’s star has shined for a long while its light has always been eclipsed by the brighter radiance of the United States. This according to Washington is no longer true as under Bush the United States has grown dim enough to bow to the greater glow from the East.
How can they pass off Bush’s ‘broad-based engagement’ as an accomplishment when it pales in comparison to so large a collapse as our loss of prestige and dominance?
One of the high marks in foreign policy for the Bush administration has been his broad-based engagement with the mainland as the strategic debate in Washington has shifted from a uni-polar world in the 1990s to one that now takes into account the (thus far) peaceful rise and development of China.
And why are the Democrats likely to focus on economic issues like manufacturing job flight and the trade deficit rather than Taiwan or other security concerns as weaknesses in Bush's China policy during the campaign?
They are completely missing the implications of moving from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world and will forego the opportunity of addressing the biggest failure of the Bush administration. Bush has placed the United States back into the Cold War era.
Democrats are likely to focus on economic issues like manufacturing job flight and the trade deficit rather than Taiwan or other security concerns as weaknesses in Bush's China policy during the campaign.
-Am
Rice visit reveals Chinese power structure
By Edward Lanfranco UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
Beijing, China, Jul. 10 (UPI) -- The order of Chinese leaders Condoleezza Rice visited during her 24-hour stopover in Beijing provides insight into the hierarchy of power in the People's Republic of China and the priority it places on the Taiwan issue.
China was the second stop for the U.S. president's national security adviser on her three East Asian nation tour, which includes Japan and South Korea.
Analysts view Rice's visit as strategic maintenance and the opportunity to update exchanges with policymakers as the Bush administration prepares to confront the challenge posed by John Kerry now that he has chosen John Edwards as his running mate for the November election.
Democrats are likely to focus on economic issues like manufacturing job flight and the trade deficit rather than Taiwan or other security concerns as weaknesses in Bush's China policy during the campaign.
One of the high marks in foreign policy for the Bush administration has been his broad-based engagement with the mainland as the strategic debate in Washington has shifted from a uni-polar world in the 1990s to one that now takes into account the (thus far) peaceful rise and development of China.
The one area where China has explicitly stated its willingness to use force on multiple occasions is if Taiwan declares independence.
There is a growing consensus that Taiwan may indeed become a flashpoint as mainland leaders and the military prepare for a worst-case scenario in which newly reelected Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian implements a timetable for a new constitution in 2006 and declaration of independence in 2008.
During a visit to Beijing in June, David Shambaugh, an expert on the People's Liberation Army at George Washington University, told foreign correspondents that "China was quite relaxed about the international security environment except for Taiwan."
Shambaugh said, "Things are at the highest level of anxiety in the 25 years that I have been studying this organization."
"The PLA is ready and able to use force; it has resources beyond simple invasion including e-warfare, blockade and use of ballistic missiles," Shambaugh observed.
He noted, "the PLA has been preparing since 1996, working to fill in technology gaps and niche needs with purchasing."
Kenneth Lieberthal, from the University of Michigan and a member of the Clinton administration's team on China, was also in Beijing in June and told reporters the cross-straits issue was the one source of tension "that could fundamentally alter the U.S. China relationship."
He said "the fundamental U.S. policy for the last quarter-century has been 'strategic ambiguity,' based on our following a One-China policy hinging upon a peaceful situation across the Taiwan Strait."
Against this backdrop, Rice arrived in Beijing Thursday afternoon meeting first with Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing.
Li was quoted in the official Xinhua news agency as telling her, "China 'strongly' urges the U.S. to understand the 'sensitivity' of the Taiwan issue and the 'gravity' of the current situation, and to treat China's solemn stance seriously."
"The Taiwan issue is the most crucial factor that affects the smooth development of China-U.S. relations," Li added.
Rice's second meeting Thursday, with Jiang Zemin, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, was arguably the most important during her brief stay in China.
The notion of ambiguity exists on the Chinese side as well.
While China has made considerable progress in the institutionalization of political authority, the country's evolution away from traditional rule by a strong or senior leader is not yet complete.
The Rice meeting indicates Jiang Zemin remains a major political force in the formulation and execution of defense policy and relations with the United States despite giving up his positions as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in November 2002 and state president in March 2003.
Jiang maintains a significant, but ill-defined role in the Chinese political hierarchy by holding on to the position of chairman of the CMC, which has the final say on use of the People's Liberation Army, which covers all of China's armed forces.
Shambaugh says top PLA generals are concerned about an unclear chain of command at the apex of decision regarding on the use of force, called the "two centers" and referring to Jiang and the country's current president and party leader, Hu Jintao.
"There is confusion from Jiang not stepping down," he notes.
At the foreign ministry press briefing Thursday, UPI asked spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue, who was the closest equivalent to Condoleezza Rice within the Chinese government, specifically if national security was Jiang's responsibility.
Zhang's response was "China and the U.S. have different types of government organization."
Chinese print and television media gave extensive coverage to Jiang's meeting with Rice, quoting him saying, "The Taiwan question is the most vital and most sensitive issue in Sino-U.S. relations."
Jiang told Rice: "China adheres to the basic principle of peaceful reunification and "one country, two systems," and will never tolerate Taiwan independence. ... If the Taiwan authorities go toward independence and foreign forces step in, we will never sit by and watch."
"China's sovereignty and territorial integrity were paramount, and the national will of the 1.3 billion Chinese people was inviolable," he added.
Jiang warned: "The U.S. side's recent activities on Taiwan, especially striving to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, have made the Chinese people deeply concerned and dissatisfied."
After the meetings on Thursday, a senior official traveling with Rice told United Press International, "This high-level dialog was good in keeping the relationship moving forward and illustrated the president's deep commitment to the engagement process."
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the U.S. official said: "Dr. Rice covered the full range of issues in the bilateral relationship, including the situation in Iraq, the Six-Party Talks and North Korea's nuclear ambitions, plus Taiwan."
On the issue of Taiwan, which the mainland considers the foundation of Sino-U.S. ties, the official said Rice "reaffirmed our One-China policy which includes the three joint communiqués, non-support for independence, and the president's commitment to obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act."
"Dr. Rice also expressed the president's opposition to unilateral steps on changing the status quo," the official added.
China has plans to stage a full-scale military exercise later this month. Many see it as a dress rehearsal of a Taiwan invasion scenario, which includes engagement with U.S. forces.
On Friday Rice met with State Councilor and former foreign minister Tang Jiaxuan, then the second of the "two centers," China's president Hu Jintao.
Hu Jintao told Rice her visit "could be helpful to fully understand China's aspiration in promoting Sino-U.S. ties and the country's serious concern over the Taiwan issue."
"The frequent communication and consultation between the state leaders on Sino-U.S. ties and major issues of mutual concern is very important for the promotion of the sound and steady development of bilateral relations," he added.
Unlike Jiang, the Chinese president did not offer a comprehensive assessment on the direction of the bilateral relationship, nor did he articulate the consequences of Taiwan seeking independence in his discussions with Rice.
All of this points to China's current national leader deferring to the previous generation, at least when it comes to the issue considered to be the most important in the country.
Pacific Theatre, WWIII China’s strategy, must read
China interested in Japan's waters
It is obvious that China is trying to project its military force into the Pacific east of Taiwan. Such a move would make it possible for missiles fired from Chinese nuclear-powered submarines to reach the US. It would be a convenient way of restraining the US-Japanese alliance.
The United States admits China is our number one threat, you are supposed to believe it is terrorism. Considering the jockeying for position already taking place in the Pacific arena this war has already started.
U.S. at War with Beijing, reports cite China as no.1 threat #msg-3379438
Two things, China has already stated it will do what it can to ensure security on the high seas and most of our allies have already jumped ship refusing to confront China. #msg-3404130 #msg-3530012 #msg-3530012 #msg-4003259
Taiwan contains China which is the real reason we have allied with Taiwan. If Taiwan becomes less independent China can easily project its fleet east of Taiwan and reach the U.S. with missiles fired from nuclear-powered submarines.
The outlying islands -- Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia – are the first chain of defense for China. Much press has already been given to Japan and Taiwan. The Philippines have been leaning toward China and Indonesia is seeing some heavy terrorist activity which might be covertly backed by China as it is to their advantage.
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Indonesia 'may face new attack' - BBC News - 35 minutes ago Indonesia Deploys Extra Security Measures Around Foreign Embassies ... - Voice of America - 1 hour ago Indonesia Shares End Up; Sentiment Recovers After Bombing - Yahoo News - 4 hours ago
The US military is striving to expand the global scope of its operations from Japan, South Korea and elsewhere in East Asia to the Middle East and the Indian Ocean in "war against terrorism". #msg-3986562
-Am
China interested in Japan's waters
By Ho Szu-shen
Thursday, Sep 09, 2004,Page 8 The activities of Chinese oceanographic surveillance ships close to Japanese territorial waters are aimed at challenging US interests in the West Pacific, Premier Yu Shyi-kun said in New York a few days ago, calling China a "source of disorder."
In fact, China has engaged in marine surveillance in the waters close to Japan as early as 1995, focusing on three regions. The first region is the center of the area claimed by Japan along the "medium line" dividing Chinese and Japanese territorial waters in the East China Sea. Japanese officials argue that since the continental shelf extends to the trench south of the Ryukyu island chain, rights to the shelf should be divided equally by Japan and China along a line equidistant to the two nations.
However, Chinese officials argue that the continental shelf ends at the Okinawa trough and that China should have jurisdiction up to that trough. The second region is the area stretching from the East China Sea through the Miyako Strait to the Pacific Ocean, and the third region is the waters around the Diaoyutai islands (called the Senkaku Islands by the Japanese).
Shigeo Hiramatsu, a well-known Japanese military expert, believes China is experiencing an oil shortage due to its rapid modernization, and that the frequent surveys in the waters around Japan are aimed at locating underwater oil deposits.
On the other hand, according to the "blue-water naval strategy" proposed in 1993 by Liu Huaqing, a former first vice-chairman of China's Central Military Commission, the Chinese navy must move its defense from the coastline to the first chain of outlying islands -- Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia -- and maybe even to the second chain of islands in the West Pacific -- Ogasawara-shoto, Iwo Jima, the Mariana Islands and the Palau Islands. It is obvious that China is trying to project its military force into the Pacific east of Taiwan. Such a move would make it possible for missiles fired from Chinese nuclear-powered submarines to reach the US. It would be a convenient way of restraining the US-Japanese alliance.
As the Chinese economy has been growing stronger, China's attempts to enhance its influence in East Asia has become clearer. Faced with survival issues such as an expanding population and environmental deterioration, China's development into the Pacific seems necessary. In 1992, the Standing Committee of the People's Congress adopted the "Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone," which codified an unprecedented view of the ocean, saying that "ocean territory is an important part of China's living space." Based on a geopolitical analysis, China's power is land-based. The series of islands from Kyushu to Nansei-shoto in Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines separate China from the Pacific and blocks a possible extension of China's influence to Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, India and Pakistan.
If, therefore, China wants to become an ocean-faring nation and a global force, it has to eliminate these negative geographical factors and the restrictions placed on it by Taiwan, to reach the Pacific Ocean. This means that Japan's sea lanes will come under threat. For Japan, the South China Sea and the waters off Taiwan are vital for transporting oil and other important strategic resources.
A 1996 long-term forecast of the security situation and Japan's proper defense preparations by the National Institute for Defense Studies under the Japan Defense Agency points out that the shipping lanes running through the Malacca Strait and the Bashi Strait will come under threat if China were to become an economic, military and political superpower.
With its growing influence in the region, it can be predicted that China will become the major force in East Asia if Japan continues to avoid taking on the role as the major military force in the area.
The main target was of course not only North Korea, which US President George W. Bush has called a member of an "axis of evil." It seemed also to be aimed at restricting China's influence in the region and preventing it from becoming a regional instability factor. It has been reported that the Japan Defense Agency has decided to amend its "Outline for National Defense Program" to substitute the Cold War concept of a Soviet invasion with prevention of an invasion by guerrilla troops and spy boats in response to China's intensified activities in the waters around Nansei-shoto near Okinawa.
As a result, the focus of troop deployments will be shifted from the north to the south.
In response, a worried China has said that the focus of Japan's military strategy will shift from "homeland defense" to "overseas intervention," and that Japan will emulate the US and tighten its containment of China by expanding the scope of cooperation within the US-Japanese military alliance, surrounding China on three sides and posing a serious threat to its security. China has pointed out that Japan is interfering politically with the resolution of the Taiwan issue, and that, together with the US, Tokyo is trying to bring Taiwan into the alliance, making a solution to the cross-strait issue even more difficult.
There is evidence that Japan has realized that post-Cold War China, with its rapidly developing economy and national strength, has become a great international power, and the problems with handling their relationship will become increasingly obvious. In addition, many Japanese feel that their government should take an even tougher stance toward China. In particular, when offering economic assistance, Japan should make clear the threat posed to Japan by China's increased military spending. This argument is gaining currency, and will affect the Japanese government's future diplomatic relations with China, since public opinion in democratic countries will be reflected in government policy in the end.
Ho Szu-shen is an associate professor in the Department of Japanese at Fu-jen Catholic University.
Japan plans to call China, North Korea key threats
The U.S. government has already cited China as the No. 1 threat to global security and now one of our chief allies is about to group China with North Korea as a chief threat. #msg-3379438
Little by little people will be conditioned to accept that the global war that Bush is leading us into is with China and that the ‘war on terror’ was only one aspect of this war.
It will be interesting to watch how they program people in the near future to allow for this ‘switch’ in primary adversaries.
-Am
Staff report Japan will name North Korea and China as threats to its security in a new defense policy to be compiled next month, according to a draft the government presented Friday to the Liberal Democratic Party. It is the first time Japan mentions specific nations as threats to its peace and stability. The current National Defense Program Outline, issued in 1995, merely states that uncertainty and unpredictability remain in areas surrounding Japan, including on the Korean Peninsula.
"North Korea's military moves are a grave destabilizing factor in the region," states the draft, presented to a security panel of the LDP.
"At the same time, Japan must pay close attention to China's modernization of its military and the expansion of its activities in the sea."
Japan is in dispute with China over ocean resources and over ownership of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Earlier this month, a Chinese submarine briefly intruded into Japanese territorial waters off Okinawa, putting the Maritime Self-Defense Force on alert.
The draft also says the stability of the region stretching from the Middle East to East Asia is crucial to Japan's security. It says Japan must cooperate with other nations in keeping the region stable.
The Japan Times: Nov. 27, 2004 (C) All rights reserved
China builds a smaller, stronger military Modernization could alter regional balance of power
By Edward Cody The Washington Post Updated: 11:35 p.m. ET April 11, 2005
BEIJING - A top-to-bottom modernization is transforming the Chinese military, raising the stakes for U.S. forces long dominant in the Pacific.
Several programs to improve China's armed forces could soon produce a stronger nuclear deterrent against the United States, soldiers better trained to use high-technology weapons, and more effective cruise and anti-ship missiles for use in the waters around Taiwan, according to foreign specialists and U.S. officials.
In the past several weeks, President Bush and his senior aides, including Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Director of Central Intelligence Porter J. Goss, have expressed concern over the recent pace of China's military progress and its effect on the regional balance of power.
Their comments suggested the modernization program might be on the brink of reaching one of its principal goals. For the last decade -- at least since two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups steamed in to show resolve during a moment of high tension over Taiwan in 1996 -- Chinese leaders have sought to field enough modern weaponry to ensure that any U.S. decision to intervene again would be painful and fraught with risk.
As far as is known, China's military has not come up with a weapon system that suddenly changes the equation in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters where Japanese and U.S. forces deploy, the specialists said. China has been trying to update its military for more than two decades, seeking to push the low-tech, manpower-heavy force it calls a people's army into the 21st-century world of computers, satellites and electronic weapons. Although results have been slow in coming, they added, several programs will come to fruition simultaneously in the next few years, promising a new level of firepower in one of the world's most volatile regions.
"This is the harvest time," said Lin Chong-pin, a former Taiwanese deputy defense minister and an expert on the Chinese military at the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies in Taipei.
U.S. and Taiwanese military officials pointed in particular to China's rapid development of cruise and other anti-ship missiles designed to pierce the electronic defenses of U.S. vessels that might be dispatched to the Taiwan Strait in case of conflict.
The Chinese navy has taken delivery of two Russian-built Sovremenny-class guided missile destroyers and has six more on order, equipped with Sunburn missiles able to skim 4 1/2 feet above the water at a speed of Mach 2.5 to evade radar. In addition, it has contracted with Russia to buy eight Kilo-class diesel submarines that carry Club anti-ship missiles with a range of 145 miles.
"These systems will present significant challenges in the event of a U.S. naval force response to a Taiwan crisis," Vice Adm. Lowell E. Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in testimony March 17.
The nuclear deterrent Strategically, China's military is also close to achieving an improved nuclear deterrent against the United States, according to foreign officials and specialists.
The Type 094 nuclear missile submarine, launched last July to replace a trouble-prone Xia-class vessel, can carry 16 intercontinental ballistic missiles. Married with the newly developed Julang-2 missile, which has a range of more than 5,000 miles and the ability to carry independently targeted warheads, the 094 will give China a survivable nuclear deterrent against the continental United States, according to "Modernizing China's Military," a study by David Shambaugh of George Washington University.
In addition, the Dongfeng-31 solid-fuel mobile ballistic missile, a three-stage, land-based equivalent of the Julang-2, has been deployed in recent years to augment the approximately 20 Dongfeng-5 liquid-fuel missiles already in service, according to academic specialists citing U.S. intelligence reports.
It will be joined in coming years by an 8,000-mile Dongfeng-41, these reports said, putting the entire United States within range of land-based Chinese ICBMs as well. "The main purpose of that is not to attack the United States," Lin said. "The main purpose is to throw a monkey wrench into the decision-making process in Washington, to make the Americans think, and think again, about intervening in Taiwan, and by then the Chinese have moved in."
With a $1.3 trillion economy growing at more than 9 percent a year, China has acquired more than enough wealth to make these investments in a modern military. The announced defense budget has risen by double digits in most recent years. For 2005, it jumped 12.6 percent to hit nearly $30 billion.
The Pentagon estimates that real military expenditures, including weapons acquisitions and research tucked into other budgets, should be calculated at two or three times the announced figure. That would make China's defense expenditures among the world's largest, but still far behind the $400 billion budgeted this year by the United States.
Projecting force to Taiwan Taiwan, the self-ruled island that China insists must reunite with the mainland, has long been at the center of this growth in military spending; one of the military's chief missions is to project a threat of force should Taiwan's rulers take steps toward formal independence.
Embodying the threat, the 2nd Artillery Corps has deployed more than 600 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan from southeastern China's Fujian and Jiangxi provinces, according to Taiwan's deputy defense minister, Michael M. Tsai. Medium-range missiles have also been developed, he said, and much of China's modernization campaign is directed at acquiring weapons and support systems that would give it air and sea superiority in any conflict over the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.
But the expansion of China's interests abroad, particularly energy needs, has also broadened the military's mission in recent years. Increasingly, according to foreign specialists and Chinese commentators, China's navy and air force have set out to project power in the South China Sea, where several islands are under dispute and vital oil supplies pass through, and in the East China Sea, where China and Japan are at loggerheads over mineral rights and several contested islands.
China has acquired signals-monitoring facilities on Burma's Coco Islands and, according to U.S. reports, at a port it is building in cooperation with Pakistan near the Iranian border at Gwadar, which looks out over tankers exiting the Persian Gulf. According to a report prepared for Rumsfeld's office by Booz Allen Hamilton, the consulting firm, China has developed a "string of pearls" strategy, seeking military-related agreements with Bangladesh, Cambodia and Thailand in addition to those with Burma and Pakistan.
Against this background, unifying Taiwan with the mainland has become more than just a nationalist goal. The 13,500-square-mile territory has also become a platform that China needs to protect southern sea lanes, through which pass 80 percent of its imported oil and tons of other imported raw materials. It could serve as a base for Chinese submarines to have unfettered access to the deep Pacific, according to Tsai, Taiwan's deputy defense minister. "Taiwan for them now is a strategic must and no longer just a sacred mission," Lin said.
Traditionally, China's threat against Taiwan has been envisaged as a Normandy-style assault by troops hitting the beaches. French, German, British and Mexican military attaches were invited to observe such landing exercises by specialized Chinese troops last September.
Also in that vein, specialists noted, the Chinese navy's fast-paced ship construction program includes landing vessels and troop transports. Two giant transports that were seen under construction in Shanghai's shipyards a year ago, for instance, have disappeared, presumably to the next stage of their preparation for deployment.
But U.S. and Taiwanese officials noted that China's amphibious forces had the ability to move across the strait only one armored division -- about 12,000 men with their vehicles. That would be enough to occupy an outlying Taiwanese island as a gesture, they said, but not to seize the main island.
Instead, Taiwanese officials said, if a conflict arose, they would expect a graduated campaign of high-tech pinpoint attacks, including cruise missile strikes on key government offices or computer sabotage, designed to force the leadership in Taipei to negotiate short of all-out war. The 1996 crisis, when China test-fired missiles off the coast, cost the Taiwanese economy $20 billion in lost business and mobilization expenses, a senior security official recalled.
High-tech emphasis A little-discussed but key facet of China's military modernization has been a reduction in personnel and an intensive effort to better train and equip the soldiers who remain, particularly those who operate high-technology weapons. Dennis J. Blasko, a former U.S. military attache in Beijing who is writing a book on the People's Liberation Army, said that forming a core of skilled commissioned and noncommissioned officers and other specialists who can make the military run in a high-tech environment may be just as important in the long run as buying sophisticated weapons.
Premier Wen Jiabao told the National People's Congress last month that his government would soon complete a 200,000-soldier reduction that has been underway since 2003. That would leave about 2.3 million troops in the Chinese military, making it still the world's biggest, according to a report issued recently by the Defense Ministry.
Because of pensions and retraining for dismissed soldiers, the training and personnel reduction program has so far been an expense rather than a cost-cutter, according to foreign specialists. But it has encountered competition for funds from the high-tech and high-expense program to make China's military capable of waging what former president Jiang Zemin called "war under informationalized conditions."
The emphasis on high-tech warfare, as opposed to China's traditional reliance on masses of ground troops, was dramatized by shifts last September in the Communist Party's decision-making Central Military Commission, which had long been dominated by the People's Liberation Army. Air force commander Qiao Qingchen, Navy commander Zhang Dingfa and 2nd Artillery commander Jing Zhiyuan, whose units control China's ballistic missiles, joined the commission for the first time, signaling the importance of their responsibilities under the modernization drive.
Air superiority Striving for air superiority over the Taiwan Strait, the air force has acquired from Russia more than 250 Sukhoi Su-27 single-role and Su-30 all-weather, multi-role fighter planes, according to Richard D. Fisher, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Washington. The Pentagon has forecast that, as the Sukhoi program continues to add to China's aging inventory, the air force will field about 2,000 warplanes by 2020, of which about 150 will be fourth-generation craft equipped with sophisticated avionics.
But specialists noted that many of China's Su-27s have spent most of the time on the ground for lack of maintenance. In addition, according to U.S. and Taiwanese experts, China has remained at the beginning stages of its effort to acquire the equipment and skills necessary for midair refueling, space-based information systems, and airborne reconnaissance and battle management platforms.
A senior Taiwanese military source said Chinese pilots started training on refueling and airborne battle management several years ago, but so far have neither the equipment nor the technique to integrate such operations into their order of battle. Similarly, he said, China has been testing use of Global Positioning System devices to guide its cruise missiles but remains some time away from deploying such technology.
Buying such electronic equipment would be China's most likely objective if the European Union goes ahead with plans to lift its arms sales embargo despite objections from Washington, a senior European diplomat in Beijing said. A Chinese effort to acquire Israel's Phalcon airborne radar system was stymied in 2000 when the United States prevailed on Israel to back out of the $1 billion deal.
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