Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Rice visit reveals Chinese power structure

This is an admission by our present administration that during their tenure the United States has lost their dominant role.

In no way can this be considered a ‘high mark’. This in itself, the loss of dominance, is the greatest failure for which a president can be found guilty.

When Bush took office the United States was the sole superpower in a uni-polar world. The invasion of Iraq was a study in dominance by way of unilateral action and military superiority. They now confess that the world has become multi-polar with the rise of China. While China’s star has shined for a long while its light has always been eclipsed by the brighter radiance of the United States. This according to Washington is no longer true as under Bush the United States has grown dim enough to bow to the greater glow from the East.

How can they pass off Bush’s ‘broad-based engagement’ as an accomplishment when it pales in comparison to so large a collapse as our loss of prestige and dominance?

One of the high marks in foreign policy for the Bush administration has been his broad-based engagement with the mainland as the strategic debate in Washington has shifted from a uni-polar world in the 1990s to one that now takes into account the (thus far) peaceful rise and development of China.

And why are the Democrats likely to focus on economic issues like manufacturing job flight and the trade deficit rather than Taiwan or other security concerns as weaknesses in Bush's China policy during the campaign?

They are completely missing the implications of moving from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world and will forego the opportunity of addressing the biggest failure of the Bush administration. Bush has placed the United States back into the Cold War era.

Democrats are likely to focus on economic issues like manufacturing job flight and the trade deficit rather than Taiwan or other security concerns as weaknesses in Bush's China policy during the campaign.

-Am


Rice visit reveals Chinese power structure


By Edward Lanfranco
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL


Beijing, China, Jul. 10 (UPI) -- The order of Chinese leaders Condoleezza Rice visited during her 24-hour stopover in Beijing provides insight into the hierarchy of power in the People's Republic of China and the priority it places on the Taiwan issue.

China was the second stop for the U.S. president's national security adviser on her three East Asian nation tour, which includes Japan and South Korea.

Analysts view Rice's visit as strategic maintenance and the opportunity to update exchanges with policymakers as the Bush administration prepares to confront the challenge posed by John Kerry now that he has chosen John Edwards as his running mate for the November election.

Democrats are likely to focus on economic issues like manufacturing job flight and the trade deficit rather than Taiwan or other security concerns as weaknesses in Bush's China policy during the campaign.

One of the high marks in foreign policy for the Bush administration has been his broad-based engagement with the mainland as the strategic debate in Washington has shifted from a uni-polar world in the 1990s to one that now takes into account the (thus far) peaceful rise and development of China.

The one area where China has explicitly stated its willingness to use force on multiple occasions is if Taiwan declares independence.

There is a growing consensus that Taiwan may indeed become a flashpoint as mainland leaders and the military prepare for a worst-case scenario in which newly reelected Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian implements a timetable for a new constitution in 2006 and declaration of independence in 2008.

During a visit to Beijing in June, David Shambaugh, an expert on the People's Liberation Army at George Washington University, told foreign correspondents that "China was quite relaxed about the international security environment except for Taiwan."

Shambaugh said, "Things are at the highest level of anxiety in the 25 years that I have been studying this organization."

"The PLA is ready and able to use force; it has resources beyond simple invasion including e-warfare, blockade and use of ballistic missiles," Shambaugh observed.

He noted, "the PLA has been preparing since 1996, working to fill in technology gaps and niche needs with purchasing."

Kenneth Lieberthal, from the University of Michigan and a member of the Clinton administration's team on China, was also in Beijing in June and told reporters the cross-straits issue was the one source of tension "that could fundamentally alter the U.S. China relationship."

He said "the fundamental U.S. policy for the last quarter-century has been 'strategic ambiguity,' based on our following a One-China policy hinging upon a peaceful situation across the Taiwan Strait."

Against this backdrop, Rice arrived in Beijing Thursday afternoon meeting first with Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing.

Li was quoted in the official Xinhua news agency as telling her, "China 'strongly' urges the U.S. to understand the 'sensitivity' of the Taiwan issue and the 'gravity' of the current situation, and to treat China's solemn stance seriously."

"The Taiwan issue is the most crucial factor that affects the smooth development of China-U.S. relations," Li added.

Rice's second meeting Thursday, with Jiang Zemin, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, was arguably the most important during her brief stay in China.

The notion of ambiguity exists on the Chinese side as well.

While China has made considerable progress in the institutionalization of political authority, the country's evolution away from traditional rule by a strong or senior leader is not yet complete.

The Rice meeting indicates Jiang Zemin remains a major political force in the formulation and execution of defense policy and relations with the United States despite giving up his positions as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in November 2002 and state president in March 2003.

Jiang maintains a significant, but ill-defined role in the Chinese political hierarchy by holding on to the position of chairman of the CMC, which has the final say on use of the People's Liberation Army, which covers all of China's armed forces.

Shambaugh says top PLA generals are concerned about an unclear chain of command at the apex of decision regarding on the use of force, called the "two centers" and referring to Jiang and the country's current president and party leader, Hu Jintao.

"There is confusion from Jiang not stepping down," he notes.

At the foreign ministry press briefing Thursday, UPI asked spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue, who was the closest equivalent to Condoleezza Rice within the Chinese government, specifically if national security was Jiang's responsibility.

Zhang's response was "China and the U.S. have different types of government organization."

Chinese print and television media gave extensive coverage to Jiang's meeting with Rice, quoting him saying, "The Taiwan question is the most vital and most sensitive issue in Sino-U.S. relations."

Jiang told Rice: "China adheres to the basic principle of peaceful reunification and "one country, two systems," and will never tolerate Taiwan independence. ... If the Taiwan authorities go toward independence and foreign forces step in, we will never sit by and watch."

"China's sovereignty and territorial integrity were paramount, and the national will of the 1.3 billion Chinese people was inviolable," he added.

Jiang warned: "The U.S. side's recent activities on Taiwan, especially striving to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, have made the Chinese people deeply concerned and dissatisfied."

After the meetings on Thursday, a senior official traveling with Rice told United Press International, "This high-level dialog was good in keeping the relationship moving forward and illustrated the president's deep commitment to the engagement process."

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the U.S. official said: "Dr. Rice covered the full range of issues in the bilateral relationship, including the situation in Iraq, the Six-Party Talks and North Korea's nuclear ambitions, plus Taiwan."

On the issue of Taiwan, which the mainland considers the foundation of Sino-U.S. ties, the official said Rice "reaffirmed our One-China policy which includes the three joint communiqués, non-support for independence, and the president's commitment to obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act."

"Dr. Rice also expressed the president's opposition to unilateral steps on changing the status quo," the official added.

China has plans to stage a full-scale military exercise later this month. Many see it as a dress rehearsal of a Taiwan invasion scenario, which includes engagement with U.S. forces.

On Friday Rice met with State Councilor and former foreign minister Tang Jiaxuan, then the second of the "two centers," China's president Hu Jintao.

Hu Jintao told Rice her visit "could be helpful to fully understand China's aspiration in promoting Sino-U.S. ties and the country's serious concern over the Taiwan issue."

"The frequent communication and consultation between the state leaders on Sino-U.S. ties and major issues of mutual concern is very important for the promotion of the sound and steady development of bilateral relations," he added.

Unlike Jiang, the Chinese president did not offer a comprehensive assessment on the direction of the bilateral relationship, nor did he articulate the consequences of Taiwan seeking independence in his discussions with Rice.

All of this points to China's current national leader deferring to the previous generation, at least when it comes to the issue considered to be the most important in the country.

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040709-122345-2617r.htm