Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

China's rise shifts balance of power in Asia


Recognizing that China is the rising star our allies are saying no to a confrontation and deserting Bush. The impulse to back a winner spans the globe. Bush who sought hegemony will go down in history as the president who lost America’s dominance.

President George W. Bush began his tenure by warning China that the US would do 'whatever it took' to defend Taiwan from any Chinese aggression. But by last December, he had shifted position, saying that America opposed attempts by Taiwan to change the status quo.

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China's rise shifts balance of power in Asia

September 10, 2004
By Michael Richardson

AS CHINA'S growing power and influence permeate Asia and the Pacific, countries in the region are recalibrating their relations with Beijing to acknowledge its status and defuse potential conflict.

These adjustments signal to both the United States and its ally, Japan, that the old strategic and economic balance in which they were the dominant players is shifting to include China as an increasingly important pole.

The most recent sign of this shift was the three-day visit of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to China last week. She chose to go to Beijing on her first state visit since she was re-elected in May.

The hastily arranged visit follows tension between the Philippines and its longstanding ally, the US, over Mrs Arroyo's decision to withdraw Philippine troops from Iraq and not replace them after insurgents captured a Filipino truck driver and threatened to kill him unless the soldiers were removed.

Washington criticised the move, saying it would encourage terrorism and endanger the position of the US and other countries remaining in Iraq.

Mrs Arroyo returned to Manila last Friday with a swag of agreements from China to expand trade and tourism, explore prospects for bilateral military cooperation, and provide a US$400 million (S$686 million) railway development loan.

Beijing also signed deals to cooperate with Manila in handling cases of illegal fishing in the South China Sea, where the two countries have overlapping territorial claims. They also agreed to a joint seismic survey of the oil and gas potential in the area.

The aim of the Philippines and China, said Mrs Arroyo's communications director Silvestre Afable, is to transform the South China Sea 'from an area of conflict to an area of cooperation'.

For her part, Mrs Arroyo emphasised that the Philippines maintained a 'one China' policy that recognises Taiwan as part of China.

Amid simmering tension between Beijing and Taipei, two trends worry an increasing number of Asia-Pacific governments. One is the growth of independence sentiment in Taiwan, which Beijing insists is a province of China.

The other is the belief of many Taiwanese that China would not use force to prevent independence and the expectation of Taiwanese leaders that even if China did, the US would intervene militarily to protect democracy on the island.

Taiwan's economy is becoming increasingly integrated with, and dependent on, China. But politically, they are moving apart. Recent visitors from South-east Asia to Taiwan, including Singapore's then deputy prime minister Lee Hsien Loong, have noted that there is a stronger Taiwanese identity emerging. More people are speaking the Taiwanese dialect and many think of themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese.

The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of President Chen Shui-bian plays on this aspiration for sovereignty and statehood. He said last Friday that the island's official name, Republic of China, is confusing and that he wants to call it Taiwan during trips abroad - a remark that Beijing might interpret as a new step towards formal independence.

DPP leaders portray themselves as crusaders for national dignity and insist that Taiwan, after 55 years of separate rule, is already independent of China. Reacting to this political groundswell, the younger generation of lawmakers in Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT) said last week that they had founded a new party faction and wanted the KMT to adopt a more pro-independence stance to prevent the party from being marginalised.

Singapore and several other regional countries have recently tried to convince the Taiwanese of the realities of their international position. On Aug 22, in his first National Day Rally speech since becoming Prime Minister, Mr Lee said bluntly that a move by Taiwan towards independence was neither in Singapore's nor the region's interests because it would shatter hopes for China's peaceful emergence and for the region to prosper through trade, investment and tourism.

'If Taiwan goes for independence, Singapore will not recognise it,' Mr Lee said. 'In fact, no Asian country will recognise it. Nor will European countries. China will fight. Win or lose, Taiwan will be devastated. Unfortunately, I met only very few Taiwanese leaders who understood this.'

As their trade, investment, security and other ties with China intensify, many Asia-Pacific nations are adjusting their relations with Beijing and making it clear to Taiwan that its interests must be subordinate.

China delayed talks on a free trade agreement after Mr Lee took official leave of absence and made what he said was a private visit to Taiwan in July. Not long afterwards, Malaysia said all its ministers had been told not to visit Taiwan because it could offend the Chinese government. Last week, New Zealand confirmed that it had vetoed a visit by a senior Taiwan government minister, citing sensitivity as Wellington prepares for free trade talks with China, a key trading partner for New Zealand.

Australia, one of America's closest Asia-Pacific allies along with Japan, warned Taiwan last month that it could not count on support if it provoked China. The warning came from Australia's Foreign Minister Alexander Downer as he spoke in Beijing of Australia's hope to develop a 'strategic partnership' with China and negotiate a bilateral free trade deal with the world's sixth-largest economy.

China recently surpassed the US to become Australia's second-biggest export market after Japan. It has also become a keen buyer of Australian minerals, energy and farm products.

Mr Downer even suggested in Beijing that Australia's alliance with the US might not be invoked if US forces became embroiled with China in a conflict over Taiwan, although he later backed away from this position, saying it was a hypothetical situation.

The US itself is preoccupied with Iraq and counter-terrorism, and locked into increasing interdependence with China. America, too, wants to prevent miscalculation by Taiwanese nationalists.

President George W. Bush began his tenure by warning China that the US would do 'whatever it took' to defend Taiwan from any Chinese aggression. But by last December, he had shifted position, saying that America opposed attempts by Taiwan to change the status quo.

The cumulative pressure may now be starting to register in Taipei. Last week, it cancelled a military exercise planned for Thursday in what it said was a show of goodwill towards China.



The writer, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South-east Asian Studies in Singapore. The views expressed here are his own.

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