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Re: Amaunet post# 838

Friday, 09/10/2004 11:34:05 AM

Friday, September 10, 2004 11:34:05 AM

Post# of 9338
Pacific Theatre, WWIII China’s strategy, must read

China interested in Japan's waters

It is obvious that China is trying to project its military force into the Pacific east of Taiwan. Such a move would make it possible for missiles fired from Chinese nuclear-powered submarines to reach the US. It would be a convenient way of restraining the US-Japanese alliance.

The United States admits China is our number one threat, you are supposed to believe it is terrorism. Considering the jockeying for position already taking place in the Pacific arena this war has already started.

U.S. at War with Beijing, reports cite China as no.1 threat
#msg-3379438

Two things, China has already stated it will do what it can to ensure security on the high seas and most of our allies have already jumped ship refusing to confront China.
#msg-3404130
#msg-3530012
#msg-3530012
#msg-4003259

Taiwan contains China which is the real reason we have allied with Taiwan. If Taiwan becomes less independent China can easily project its fleet east of Taiwan and reach the U.S. with missiles fired from nuclear-powered submarines.

The outlying islands -- Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia – are the first chain of defense for China. Much press has already been given to Japan and Taiwan. The Philippines have been leaning toward China and Indonesia is seeing some heavy terrorist activity which might be covertly backed by China as it is to their advantage.

The Philippines wants to strengthen ties with China
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,271465,00.html
#msg-3998608
#msg-4003403
#msg-3643385

News results for indonesia - View today's top stories

Indonesia 'may face new attack' - BBC News - 35 minutes ago
Indonesia Deploys Extra Security Measures Around Foreign Embassies ... - Voice of America - 1 hour ago
Indonesia Shares End Up; Sentiment Recovers After Bombing - Yahoo News - 4 hours ago

See also:
#msg-3969668
#msg-3542419

The US military is striving to expand the global scope of its operations from Japan, South Korea and elsewhere in East Asia to the Middle East and the Indian Ocean in "war against terrorism".
#msg-3986562

-Am

China interested in Japan's waters

By Ho Szu-shen

Thursday, Sep 09, 2004,Page 8
The activities of Chinese oceanographic surveillance ships close to Japanese territorial waters are aimed at challenging US interests in the West Pacific, Premier Yu Shyi-kun said in New York a few days ago, calling China a "source of disorder."

In fact, China has engaged in marine surveillance in the waters close to Japan as early as 1995, focusing on three regions. The first region is the center of the area claimed by Japan along the "medium line" dividing Chinese and Japanese territorial waters in the East China Sea. Japanese officials argue that since the continental shelf extends to the trench south of the Ryukyu island chain, rights to the shelf should be divided equally by Japan and China along a line equidistant to the two nations.

However, Chinese officials argue that the continental shelf ends at the Okinawa trough and that China should have jurisdiction up to that trough. The second region is the area stretching from the East China Sea through the Miyako Strait to the Pacific Ocean, and the third region is the waters around the Diaoyutai islands (called the Senkaku Islands by the Japanese).

Shigeo Hiramatsu, a well-known Japanese military expert, believes China is experiencing an oil shortage due to its rapid modernization, and that the frequent surveys in the waters around Japan are aimed at locating underwater oil deposits.

On the other hand, according to the "blue-water naval strategy" proposed in 1993 by Liu Huaqing, a former first vice-chairman of China's Central Military Commission, the Chinese navy must move its defense from the coastline to the first chain of outlying islands -- Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia -- and maybe even to the second chain of islands in the West Pacific -- Ogasawara-shoto, Iwo Jima, the Mariana Islands and the Palau Islands. It is obvious that China is trying to project its military force into the Pacific east of Taiwan. Such a move would make it possible for missiles fired from Chinese nuclear-powered submarines to reach the US. It would be a convenient way of restraining the US-Japanese alliance.

As the Chinese economy has been growing stronger, China's attempts to enhance its influence in East Asia has become clearer. Faced with survival issues such as an expanding population and environmental deterioration, China's development into the Pacific seems necessary. In 1992, the Standing Committee of the People's Congress adopted the "Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone," which codified an unprecedented view of the ocean, saying that "ocean territory is an important part of China's living space." Based on a geopolitical analysis, China's power is land-based. The series of islands from Kyushu to Nansei-shoto in Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines separate China from the Pacific and blocks a possible extension of China's influence to Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, India and Pakistan.

If, therefore, China wants to become an ocean-faring nation and a global force, it has to eliminate these negative geographical factors and the restrictions placed on it by Taiwan, to reach the Pacific Ocean. This means that Japan's sea lanes will come under threat. For Japan, the South China Sea and the waters off Taiwan are vital for transporting oil and other important strategic resources.

A 1996 long-term forecast of the security situation and Japan's proper defense preparations by the National Institute for Defense Studies under the Japan Defense Agency points out that the shipping lanes running through the Malacca Strait and the Bashi Strait will come under threat if China were to become an economic, military and political superpower.

With its growing influence in the region, it can be predicted that China will become the major force in East Asia if Japan continues to avoid taking on the role as the major military force in the area.

The main target was of course not only North Korea, which US President George W. Bush has called a member of an "axis of evil." It seemed also to be aimed at restricting China's influence in the region and preventing it from becoming a regional instability factor. It has been reported that the Japan Defense Agency has decided to amend its "Outline for National Defense Program" to substitute the Cold War concept of a Soviet invasion with prevention of an invasion by guerrilla troops and spy boats in response to China's intensified activities in the waters around Nansei-shoto near Okinawa.

As a result, the focus of troop deployments will be shifted from the north to the south.

In response, a worried China has said that the focus of Japan's military strategy will shift from "homeland defense" to "overseas intervention," and that Japan will emulate the US and tighten its containment of China by expanding the scope of cooperation within the US-Japanese military alliance, surrounding China on three sides and posing a serious threat to its security. China has pointed out that Japan is interfering politically with the resolution of the Taiwan issue, and that, together with the US, Tokyo is trying to bring Taiwan into the alliance, making a solution to the cross-strait issue even more difficult.

There is evidence that Japan has realized that post-Cold War China, with its rapidly developing economy and national strength, has become a great international power, and the problems with handling their relationship will become increasingly obvious. In addition, many Japanese feel that their government should take an even tougher stance toward China. In particular, when offering economic assistance, Japan should make clear the threat posed to Japan by China's increased military spending. This argument is gaining currency, and will affect the Japanese government's future diplomatic relations with China, since public opinion in democratic countries will be reflected in government policy in the end.


Ho Szu-shen is an associate professor in the Department of Japanese at Fu-jen Catholic University.

Translated by Perry Svensson



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