Replies to post #445472 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[ramfan60]

My guess is that AMRN ticker symbol will no longer exist by then as we will be acquired.

[alwayswatching1]

I remember the last time we did this several years ago. I think only a couple of die hard FUD posters were actually right.

[TastyTheElf]

Hey MRM, great idea! Thanks for doing this!

Here's a little background on my share price estimation methodology:

- I start with a snapshot of the current financial condition, including B/S, P&L, available guidance, then I map out what I think 2026 will look like, and then consider what the future looks like as of 12/31/26
- Then as a subjective overlay, I assume that the company is being run by the five dumbest people from my 9th grade Consumer Math class
- At that point, taking these factors into account, I come up with a preliminary share price estimate of about $85 as of 12/31/26
- Then for secondary adjustments, I factor in (1) the company's karma, (2) my own karma, and (3) the value likely to be added by current actual management
- Factoring those secondary adjustments in, I get a final estimate of negative $500 billion per share

Let me also just add, if I might, that I hate this fucking company so fucking much it makes my fucking teeth ache.

I'm looking forward to seeing the full list of predictions. Thanks again for doing this!

[alm2]

Remain
Good idea -helps to ease the current pain to think of better days ahead
$36
Alm

[alm2]

Remain
Good idea -helps to ease the current pain to think of better days ahead
$36
Alm

[alm2]

Mr main
Not remain…although I will be doing !!!want to see this out
Alm

[Jasbg]

mrmain, We have tried this several times before - and honestly - 'NONE' - of us have any trustworthy idea.
-----------------------------------------

I'm sort of with the ELF - this company have destroyed 'dream and future (life) ' for thousands of trusting investors !

Of course - it is aloud to 'still hope for the best' - but truth is that SP is round 1/10 of what is were when Denner took over - not very impressive results for this famous 'active investor' in the Bio Market !

[rosemountbomber]

Mr. Main, apologies that I will clog up your thread here, since I have no way of knowing or even guessing as to any or all developments with Amarin this year and have to actually second Jasbg's post that basically there is no way to know.

But since on the topic, I do have a comment/question to some who have replied with guesses to your question/poll. Namely, that some may believe that the company will be sold before 12/31/2026. I don't have disagreement with that idea but what I would like to know is how could Amarin be sold for the numbers that some posters are throwing out for a possible sale? What would have to happen in less than 11 months for a valuation anywhere between 5 and 8 billion? I would think to catch that kind of an offer either Amarin would have to gain some huge legal victory boxing out the Generics or introduce the new formulation. Either of those seem to me to be much farther out than 11 months. But I would be thrilled if there was something to accomplish that.

[FlyFishingStocks]

My price prediction for 12/31/2026 = 11.11. Here's why...

Most have ignored me (haha), that's ok, most weak stemmed humans ignore the voice of reason when intoxicated by FOMO.
For what it's worth though (probably 2 nasty emojis from DMC8), as you all know, AMRN - for the most part - has lost it's upside coupling with the biotech index due to it's absence in the ETF. However, if the index drops, so does AMRN - by virtue of its presence int the biotech group (The tide drops all boats). As a result, absent earthshattering news, the stock will likely mirror the performance of the index. So what will the index look like on 12/31?
Not good from a TA perspective based on the XBI chart:



From 2020-2022, the index traced a parabolic pattern. Since then it struggled to retrace and only until this past year was it able to trace back to major overhead resistance - coinciding with 50% retracement level of the Eifel Tower back side. Soon, it will begin to eat its gains and slump back to the pink highest volume by price shaded area. This scenario will make it hard for AMRN to swim upstream against the current.

Now for AMRN:



This is a weekly chart showing levels of resistance and support. If the index is under pressure, the shorts are not. Buyers, aside from retail double downers, are virtually absent - complements of the 20 for 1 reverse split. The split news serves as a magnet for bears especially if the index rolls over and they come hunting amongst the weak stocks of the index. As a result, we will see sideways at best with a downward fade into the year end due to year-end tax loss sellers who were caught long at higher prices from chasing the recent rally to 20 (top of the blue shaded area).

Finally, my short term TA analysis (It presents a setup for a great short trade, but very poor long trade):

Bulls have made repeated attempts by stabbing prices up through the pink shaded area of resistance, only to be met with failure. This is absorption of the buying be sellers at that level. The supply is too much to overcome for now. This means that at some point, buyers dry up and the supply overwhelms prices lower until demand halts the slide. Where will that demand come from? Institutions? Hedge funds? Retail? Not likely if the index slumps.

I don't think current holders of the stock really appreciate the long term ramifications of the reverse split.
1) It chased away 'big money'
2) It decreased the float making prices volatile and vulnerable to wide swings - especially bear raids.
3) It took the share buyback operation off the table.
4) It screamed desperation because it was the only means to avoid delisting. That doesn't attract too many buyers.

I know the above sounds awful but if you can dispute the logic with reason, I'm all ears. IMO it is objective and a likely outcome unless R-IT type news drops. It will take something like that to lift prices out of this Kondratieff Winter pattern.