Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[FlyFishingStocks]

My price prediction for 12/31/2026 = 11.11. Here's why...

Most have ignored me (haha), that's ok, most weak stemmed humans ignore the voice of reason when intoxicated by FOMO.
For what it's worth though (probably 2 nasty emojis from DMC8), as you all know, AMRN - for the most part - has lost it's upside coupling with the biotech index due to it's absence in the ETF. However, if the index drops, so does AMRN - by virtue of its presence int the biotech group (The tide drops all boats). As a result, absent earthshattering news, the stock will likely mirror the performance of the index. So what will the index look like on 12/31?
Not good from a TA perspective based on the XBI chart:



From 2020-2022, the index traced a parabolic pattern. Since then it struggled to retrace and only until this past year was it able to trace back to major overhead resistance - coinciding with 50% retracement level of the Eifel Tower back side. Soon, it will begin to eat its gains and slump back to the pink highest volume by price shaded area. This scenario will make it hard for AMRN to swim upstream against the current.

Now for AMRN:



This is a weekly chart showing levels of resistance and support. If the index is under pressure, the shorts are not. Buyers, aside from retail double downers, are virtually absent - complements of the 20 for 1 reverse split. The split news serves as a magnet for bears especially if the index rolls over and they come hunting amongst the weak stocks of the index. As a result, we will see sideways at best with a downward fade into the year end due to year-end tax loss sellers who were caught long at higher prices from chasing the recent rally to 20 (top of the blue shaded area).

Finally, my short term TA analysis (It presents a setup for a great short trade, but very poor long trade):

Bulls have made repeated attempts by stabbing prices up through the pink shaded area of resistance, only to be met with failure. This is absorption of the buying be sellers at that level. The supply is too much to overcome for now. This means that at some point, buyers dry up and the supply overwhelms prices lower until demand halts the slide. Where will that demand come from? Institutions? Hedge funds? Retail? Not likely if the index slumps.

I don't think current holders of the stock really appreciate the long term ramifications of the reverse split.
1) It chased away 'big money'
2) It decreased the float making prices volatile and vulnerable to wide swings - especially bear raids.
3) It took the share buyback operation off the table.
4) It screamed desperation because it was the only means to avoid delisting. That doesn't attract too many buyers.

I know the above sounds awful but if you can dispute the logic with reason, I'm all ears. IMO it is objective and a likely outcome unless R-IT type news drops. It will take something like that to lift prices out of this Kondratieff Winter pattern.