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Thanks Sleven. I agree that we might see Amarin request an injunction in the Hikma case.
RMB, It wouldn't surprise me to see a request for injunctive relief in the Hikma suit.
Sleven,
DAR, You read it correctly.
Sleven,
Zip, I was wondering about something. First I have to say that it should be pointed out that the specifics upon which Amarin might win against Hikma are probably different with the other Generics (thinking label, touting sales figures, etc).
But was wondering if there was any chance that if Amarin got a judgement against Hikma, and the other Generics did not stop of their own volition, whether there was a chance of an injunction could be issued for them to stop while Amarin proceeds with legal steps against them. I suppose probably not (also knowing the luck of Amarin and all of us), but just wondering out loud.
It’s hard to say because in the US we don’t have a single payer system like elsewhere in the world. You would have to check with individual insurance companies.
What is the USA price reimbursement?
Hikma seems to be disregarding the Amarin legal action against them...i. e. for infringement on Amarin's CVD patent...and Hikma(and other generic companies) are continuing to infringe full steam ahead, as though there is no real problem they might face for their infringing.
They will continue as long as they are not stopped!
NS, so if I read this correctly it appears Amarin can receive up to treble damages based on what I believe Hikma's willful act of infringement. They were certainly not innocent and I can't see how negligent or gross negligent would fit their actions. To me they were Willful in their actions. Now, it would be the determination of how much the infringement from Hikma cost them but as stated, it should be significant.
Yep, It's the EPA!
@BudoffMd @DLBHATTMD Yep, It's the EPA!https://t.co/SmOkTPssF0 pic.twitter.com/WFTtcIFqaL
— Mike Everts (@GeoWizz_) July 21, 2024
Zip, Market cap is not a factor, of damage calculation, in a patent infringement suite. It's about lost earnings. If the infringement is determined to be willfully, punitive damages are applied. (In the US) Three times the calculated damages. Hikma claimed that Vascepa sales were approaching a billion dollars a year when they entered the market. I would think Amarin could produce experts to testify that annual revenue would have grown without generic interference. How much money lost annually? For how many years? Multiply that number by three.
Sleven,
Session: Coronary plaque progression and regression
— Michael P Gannon MD (@MichaelPGannon1) July 20, 2024
🤷♂️Which pharmacotherapies stabilize plaque and enable possible regression
Current therapies include:
🥇statins
💙icosapent ethyl
❤️colchicine
🧡PCSK9i@Heart_SCCT #SCCT2024 pic.twitter.com/DIgZslMJGp
No point in reading the board in the morning. It'll be the usual hard core suspects going off on irrelevant political rants. Thanks Tat mission accomplished!
Thank you for this great summary Capt…I do expect prices in higher price countries to drop faster thank lower price countries in the EU…profit margins should be pretty healthy nonetheless…
zip; agreed damages should be at a minimum of the market cap. Consider this however, when did Hikma begin to infringe? What was Amarin's market cap (PPS x # of shares) at the time? The basis for damages would be the loss of market share and market cap multiplied by the number of years (time) Hikma was infringing. This doesn't include the other generics or the insurance companies or pharmacy's
When did the Dusaster occur March 2019? Amarin PPS was in the $20 range ($8.4B market cap). When did Hikma change it's label?
Apr 1, 2020 4.0200 8.4600 4.0000 7.6100 7.6100 500,815,200
Mar 1, 2020 15.3600 16.4700 3.9500 4.0000 4.0000 322,241,000
Feb 1, 2020 18.6200 19.2200 13.6700 14.6700 14.6700 136,008,900
Jan 1, 2020 21.8000 21.8400 18.2800 18.5500 18.5500 171,401,300
Dec 1, 2019 21.4900 26.1200 20.0000 21.4400 21.4400 217,332,300
Nov 1, 2019 16.5100 24.6700 16.3500 21.2700 21.2700 297,499,300
Oct 1, 2019 15.2600 17.1300 13.8700 16.4200 16.4200 118,760,200
Sep 1, 2019 15.2500 17.5500 14.6900 15.1600 15.1600 115,499,700
Aug 1, 2019 18.5900 18.6000 13.7600 14.9900 14.9900 190,125,400
Jul 1, 2019 19.7700 23.9100 17.2500 18.5900 18.5900 281,349,300
Jun 1, 2019 17.6000 19.9500 17.0100 19.3900 19.3900 92,258,000
May 1, 2019 18.4500 19.6700 16.2000 17.7300 17.7300 124,714,400
Apr 1, 2019 20.7900 20.9700 17.2200 18.7000 18.7000 116,650,900
Mar 1, 2019 20.6700 23.2500 16.6500 20.7600 20.7600 196,228,500
Feb 1, 2019 17.5900 21.5000 15.6500 20.4700 20.4700 133,858,800
I'm no accountant, but it's astronomical.
Denisk; You're correct of course, we don't know the price of reimbursement. It would be great to know, but think about it? Would Amarin disclose such a figure? It's not very good business practice to disclose information that could jeopardize future negotiations with other countries. What I would be curious about is the off-shore revenues Amarin should be reporting the next earnings report. Hopefully we'll see an uptick. And the Captain should be coming out with his graphs & charts :D)
Only a suggestion; I would go back and read the Amarin Quarterly Reports and see if they have given specifics for each country. I did not see any data on reimbursements by country. Only that these countries approved reimbursement. https://cms.amarincorp.com/sites/default/files/2023-11/2023-Q3-Earnings-Press-Release.pdf
By the way, when you read the 2023 quarterly reports (Sarissa) vs the 2022 quarterly reports (Old regime) see if you can see any difference between the style and information provided. To me it's rather glaring affront to how the business was run under previous management.
Case in point; I worked with an Attorney once during litigation. We would receive requests for various things like Construction costs, engineering hours for particular projects for our rate case hearings. Being an engineer and rather pragmatic, I would gather all this extra information, costs, total manhours, who did what...blah, blah... When I presented my information for the attorney's review. The attorney pulled me aside and said...you have provided way more information than was requested, only provide to the other party only what they have requested. Don't give them additional ammunition/ information than they asked for. In other words, Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS). A valuable lesson.
Hang in there,
The amount that Hikma profited by infringing on Amarin's CVD patents is more than the devastated market cap of Amarin at present...A just victory By Amarin in their suit against Hikma should command a compensation from Hikma, which is at the very least, equal to, or more than, its present market cap.
Denisk, How much proof do you need - unless you say Amarin are lying - 'very publicly here' !
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amarin-receives-national-reimbursement-vazkepa-201500835.html
Hayward, Small caps and Bio stocks were sold hard the past few days. No way AMRN outperforms the index without some buyback activity. Get ready for a long summer of sideways 'absorption' type price action as sellers and short sellers step on every Buy-Back induced rally. Everyone on this board is excited about the BB - rightly so - but have they considered that the stock price may not in fact spike upward through all the overhead resistance? At the end of the day, big investors will want out if business prospects continue to deteriorate. They will seize the opportunity to sell into any rally. Add in the shorts and we could be looking at absorption price behavior below resistance. Once 50million shares are bought back, the price drifts lower based on the technical posture
The good news is it outperformed. The bad news, as you wrote, it can't break above .80/share. Each wave of buying was met with an equal or greater wave of selling. This falls in line with what I wrote 1 month ago,
And this prior to that,
yes saw that in the 13D filings. Also noticed other firms that have added in 1st Qtr: JPM,Blackrocks, DG capitals & Eversep Partners among others. Some others took some losses as of 3/31 like Morgan Stanley sold 1.9 million shares
Institutions Shares Held
BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS History 932,173
Shares Held 932,173
Value $830,380
Rank 2594
Change in shares 1st QTR 2024 + 476,996
QTR 1st Owned Q2 2022
Estimated AVG Price $0.94
Source Date 3/31/2024
Date Reported 5/1/2024
Ok, then tell me what is the amount of reimbursement?
Captain, It looks like our legal counsel may have found the solution to our generic problem. Section 8 cases are usually bench trials, where the judge has the authority to make decisions about the facts. By suing under 35 USC, and making a jury demand, the judge no longer has that authority. The ruling makes that clear. This should pave the way for label only lawsuits. The lawyer representing Hikma understood this. That's why he said this would kill section 8.
Sleven,
RMB, Are you surprised?
Sleven,
Not sure what you mean by "there isn't no government reimbursement $$$ in place"?
"DUBLIN, Ireland and BRIDGEWATER, N.J., July 17, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Amarin Corporation plc (NASDAQ:AMRN) today announces that the Portuguese Ministry of Health has approved VAZKEPA® (icosapent ethyl) for national reimbursement to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in adult statin-treated patients at high cardiovascular risk and elevated triglycerides (≥ 150 mg/ml [≥ 1.7 mmol/l) and established cardiovascular disease, or diabetes and at least one other cardiovascular risk factor1. The national reimbursement will now allow Amarin to begin commercialization efforts of VAZKEPA across Portugal as of August 1, 2024."
https://amarincorp.com/news-and-media/amarin-receives-national-reimbursement-vazkepar-icosapent-0
First right now there is no news that any buyback is in play as you say
2- I am sure that right all investors are awaiting the results of the second qtr to see where amarin stands in term of sales & cash flow
3- the only thing we know right now is that Greece & Protugal were approved, but there isn't no government reimbursement $$$ n place and no shipping has taken place that I know of in these countries.
Therefore I'd say that your idea of "we are in trouble if the price is not above $0.80" is unjustified & holds no water.
Very interesting! Thanks North.
Another set of potentials is that 1) Cantor transfers those shares to Sarissa after A. Denner has notified Cantor that an AMRN BO candidate is in place, or 2) that Cantor transfers those shares directly to the AMRN buyer. Either way, Cantor also makes $$$ when those shares are transferred at an agreed price higher than what Cantor paid for those AMRN shares.
GS made $$$ profit when it periodically transferred shares of MEDX it had purchased to BMY via option 2) above, more than a decade ago.
I hope so........just picked up another 2k shares.....Cmon Denner, help me pay off my mortgage.
I like this. And I agree that I think Sarissa's gameplan is to build momentum and massive buying pressure with a flurry of activity and PR's when they deem the time is right. Presumably once they know Italy and France are on tap.
It's still my honest opinion that Sarissa is holding the SP down.
JRoon
If the buy back is in play we are in trouble if we cannot break .80 cents !!!!!
Michael
IMO Amarin hasn't purchased any shares to try to manage Q2 spend. I think they also want a big PR to time with repurchase. Also observe no news about a releasing a generic USA. With China in motion, Italy-France-Germany are the final pieces to the BO puzzle (2 of 3 would do it). When it is leaked (and it will be) Amarin is about to be BO, the pressure on the pps will finalize a price above $15/share.
Ram, I'm not sure. I don't know if they can do that per SEC rules, but I also can't find anything specifically spelling that out.
But at minimum, if they got to about 21M shares (5%), they would have to report their own holdings.
I'm just crossing my fingers that it's spelled out at the CC.
I have no idea how these things work but couldn't Cantor be the holder of record until they are not? Then they transfer some number of shares to AMRN on a selective basis at a cost +fee structure....
They avoid the blackout period by establishing the agreement with Cantor. Basically, the timing and amount of purchases is out of Amarin's hands (ie. the discretion it totally up to Cantor).
I totally agree on the knowing part .. It also might have to with blackout period before earnings, not sure.
Good question. I'm not sure of the timing, exactly. I'm not sure if they have to report after each calendar month, or on rolling 30-day periods (after each purchase).
I might do some digging this weekend to see if I can figure that out.
It would just be nice to know that they've at least started buying.
Well most of the higher trading volume took place between June 4th to July 8, 2024, so I would guess that's when Cantor would have bought the shares. Therefore I don't think they would have to report these before July 31 if they transferred them to Amarin. Is that correct?
Well, if they've been buying prior to June 30th, AND Cantor has delivered those shares to Amarin, then it will be reflected in the financials.
But here's the rub...SEC rules require disclosure of ANY buybacks every 30 days. They have not reported anything yet. They also have not reported to UK Companies House (which is also a UK requirement), which I monitor. Which means that no shares have been delivered to Amarin prior to roughly June 15th.
Now, there may be some loopholes in the reporting rules that I am not familiar with, so I may be wrong. But it seems that if they were buying shares prior to 30 days ago, we should know about it by now.
If they mention anything at all about the buyback at the earnings conference. But I would not be surprised if they bought back 15 million shares by July 30. ( that would be around $10 million).
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