Replies to post #289653 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[hope4patients]

You obviously don’t understand. If DCVAX-L is successful it is applicable to ALL operable solid tumors. It can be used off label. If the science works with L it works with Direct and I am willing to bet NWBO will be able to demonstrate as much in short order. People are dying and if DCVAX provides a solution for many, with no side effects, the game has been changed.

[evanstony]

Risk to reward should be the measure... what is the overall exposure in assets...

and another option is to not sell it all but a large portion to reduce risk and return most of the investment...

last year BSB said more or less he had a plan to sell some on good TLD some on the next good bounce up and keep some ... I am sure that is not exact

Your idea to sell all at break even suggests a 100% risk off because of a very high portion of assets at risk... I very much doubt that this is the case...

I agree with GGB you give bad advice...

[sentiment_stocks]

BSB's average is not in the $4s or $5s. He averaged down... a lot. He'd build a shrine to LG in his garden if NWBO went to $4 or $5. And he'd hold on to some shares for his yacht, that he'd name the Linda Powers, lol. :)

[survivor1x]

1. "That is not my estimate but the estimate of SOS" Smith said WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 BLN. And he means like in the next 4-6 weeks.

2."I do not expect any big pharma to upfront pay a substantial amount of royalty or take a stake in NWBO but only after approval" KITE/JUNO??

3. I agree, who wouldn't exercise warrants when the stock is trading over $1.

4. Limited market? 24,000 primary cancerous brain tumors in the US per year.

5. Once we get the data(if as good as we think) money will flow in. They can move at much faster pace with partners ETC.

You some may want to sell some at 3 or 4 dollars. Why would they sell all their shares when they know it works, compared to know when they think it works. How many people are kicking themselves for selling Amazon at 50?

[GoodGuyBill]

Anders, You just can't believe this. Once the TLD of a trial (that has accumulated 10+ years of "superb" data) is public, the uncertainty will have been significantly reduced.

Point 1: You quoted SOS correctly but you manipulated it for your purposes. You stated,

If TLD is presented and results are superb or considered really well I expect the MC to get somewhere over 1 billion.

But SOS stated,

If the market perceived that DCVax-L had a reasonable chance for approval, analysis of peer companies suggests that the market capitalization could be well in excess of $1 billion.

You do recognize that "somewhere over 1 billion" is very different than "well in excess of $1 billion". It appears you watered-down SOS's statement to fit you personal, pre-established position.

Furthermore, I would strongly suggest that SOS's view that "If the market perceived that DCVax-L had a reasonable chance for approval..." did not take into account your position of a "superb" OS TLD. I would think SOS would think this would result in a highly likely, almost certain, approval rather than a mere "reasonable chance"?

Point 2: I have no idea how (with a "superb" OS TLD!!!!!) you could conclude, "I do not expect any big pharma to upfront pay a substantial amount of royalty or take a stake in NWBO but only after approval". You must think BP does not have the know-how to evaluate the data, despite the fact that even mb posters (i.e. AlphaPuppy and others) can analyze. Clearly you have not noticed that BP purchases companies routinely that haven't completed TLD. i just googled "merck small-cap biotech purchases" and here's the 1st item in the search list:

Under the terms of the deal, Merck will pay KalVista a $37 million upfront fee for certain rights, including the option to acquire a drug known as KVD001 after KalVista completes a Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial. The trial is set to begin later this year.

Come on Anders. You can't be serious that the most significant GBM drug of the century with 10+ years of superb OS TLD would not result in an attempt by BP to partner/bo NWBO before approval...DESPITE THE FACT THAT DCVAX-L MAY RENDER SOME OF THEIR PROFITABLE PRODUCTS OBSOLETE?!

Point 3: True, 300 new shares (via warrants) is a lot but once superb TLD is out and LP/NWBO (and all the renowned doctors who signed off on the interim data) hit the airways to explain the data and its practical implications, it won't matter. When good 'ol American greed kicks in, 300 million shares will be a mere hiccup. And please don't tell me about how brokerages, hedge-funds and other major investors can't invest in OTC stocks or stocks under $5, $1, etc. When that superb TLD is announced and explained, wall-street will start jockeying in position (if they haven't already) to see how they can capitalize...rules be damned!

Point 4: This statement is just disingenuous. If DCVAX-L is approved, it will become SOC in the U.S. and Europe (there is no other treatment). This alone will result in way more than a $6 billion MC. Have you considered that Doctors will use L for off label cancers? By the way, you stated that BP would invest in NWBO only AFTER approval. did you factor in the impact of BP stamp of approval on, and investment in, NWBO? Of course, you didn't...lol. But more importantly DCVAX-L's approval will grease the skids for approval for DIRECT (or at least draw attention to its more probable approval).

Point 5: NWBO will hit a higher MC before Direct is approved. DCVAX_L, if successful, will significantly shorten a P3 trial because the lessons learned will be applied to the new trial and the L P3 SAP and the new Federal Guidelines will serve as a template for Direct P3...which L did not have. The direct trial, assuming approval of L, will take less then 18 months.

But....what do I know.

So yes I would recommend an investor with 100k's of shares far in the red at $4-$5 to sell at break-even given the high uncertainty as described above. Especially when that investor experiences his whole investment as a nightmare like BSB described.

[biosectinvestor]

The difference between DCVax Direct and DCVax-L is the mode of administration and that one is to treat a tumor in situ, and the other to create after exposing the patient’s cells to a lysate made from an extracted tumor. I expect the big approval will come when they identify and get approved the DCVax platform, both L and Direct for biomarkers.

Times have changed since that original trial began and I think we will continue to see change that accelerated approval for these kinds of platforms, based on new standards basically created for the 21st Century Cures Act. Keytruda has one of those generalized approvals, and also seeks to expand it, sometimes with success and sometimes not. But these are more rapidly expanding opportunities than past experience would suggest, in my opinion. I am also not sure that predictions as to interest of big pharmaceutical companies is accurate. Successful data could turn the calculus of many companies upside down, in my opinion.

I think, because the industry has been in denial in this trial and had a huge buzz for a far more complex, dangerous and difficult to manufacture treatment, CAR-T, smart executives and far sighted ones will realize that DCVax is actually the real deal. A true immune therapy that has likely very broad application, substantial power, and can be manufactured and marketed at a reasonable cost with low side effects.

The treatment hits a golden set of factors and it likely also makes their drugs more effective, potentially against cancers that currently they cannot address.

So I am skeptical that if this proves successful, everyone will still be sitting on their hands pretending it does not exist when there are already indicia that Merck has been sniffing around. No, I think mothers in the industry will have, or at least should have, an immense sense of urgency to get in there - while they still can.