Replies to post #289725 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[hope4patients]

You just demolished every single one of Anders’ “talking points.” Very well stated!

[Looking4aprofit]

Great response to their perennial strategy of, if you can’t convince, apply the “contain and temper” expectations. Used to be “MAX $1” mantra! What bodes well for us true longs is that they have now increased the ceiling price to $4-$5.

Does it surprise you that their latest dance moves would be the “twist” (as in words) after doing the “limbo rock”...how low can the price go!

[anders2211]

GoodGuyBill,

You NWBO enthusiasts are all wonderful dreamers, I will give you that. You are dreaming of not a x 11 bagger (from $0,35 to max $4 with L alone) no no someone telling you dreamers that an 11x bagger is an incredible eturn that only happens so many times in stock history is hurdled away in peck in feathers and is being scolded LOL. Suoper funny

Look
Throughout my posts I have already covered the points you are making, but since you are one of the more calm posters Im more then happy to once again summarize my view.

1. I think the TLD will show superb results if I did not think that I would not be bothered with NWBO.
Its management sucks so if the results are modest then the risk return would even be more ridiculous. But what is superb, as what Ex ex noted superb is in the eye of the beholder. With superb I mean to what the medical community perceives as superb. All nice and well but the medical community is not the FDA. Since NWBO, repeating myself here, was forced to submit a second SAP the market will perceive that as a higher risk then just leaving it with the first submitted SAP when the trials was approved in the first place. A second SAP has a big smell of post hoc data all over. Yes its blinded but wink wink we know what is going on far better than when the trial started. FDA really dislikes second SAPs. And then there is the muddy data NWBO has been confronted with.
All in all I think the market is right to price in NWBO after TLD as still risky. For that reason a more suppressed MC

2. Superb results or modest results its all about the to be catered target group. The market for GBM isn’t that big really. SOS https://smithonstocks.com/northwest-biotherapeutics-non-dilutive-financing-provides-major-boost-to-investment-outlook-nwbo-0-25-buy/ in dec 2018:
Based only on the expectation of there being a reasonable chance for success in the DCVax-L trial, I would argue that comparisons to peer companies would suggest that the current valuation should be $1, $2, $3 billion or more. As explained later in this report, I consider bluebird bio a comparable company and its market capitalization is $6 billion.

SOS has always argued that he sees L approved so your argument between superb and plain data being translated in the MC is absolute BS. Approval is approval after that comes the to be catered market.

Why should NWBO be more valuable then bluebird a comparable company to NWBO?
Are there all over sudden more GBM patients? Are insurance companies willing to pay way more to NWBO? No

3. Now if Direct were to be launched and 2 years into its trial then I see a MC rising well above 6 billion.

My outlook for NWBO:
- Datalock 50-60 cents
- After topline: $ 1,8 - $ 2,2
- after Nov 1 increase of OS with 300 milllion: -25%
- approval: MC 3- 4 billion
all ex third party investments