NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[anders2211]

many id not most longs purchase some or all of their NWBO stock when it was $4 - $12 and held down to 14 cents (when info was scarce), how can you recommend to sell at break-even AFTER superb TLD validates DCVAX. Do you honestly think even one long will sell?

You misread most of my post since, as what happens more often here, there were more posts before that. Anyway to answer your question.

Assuming BSB's average SP investment or anyone else's SP is $ 4-5 and then with the 100k's of shares he is holding then yes I would recommend him or anyone else to sell at break-even if the SP reaches that level.

The reason why, and I have iterated this before, is because of the following.

1. If TLD is presented and results are superb or considered really well I expect the MC to get somewhere over 1 billion. That is not my estimate but the estimate of SOS https://smithonstocks.com/northwest-biotherapeutics-why-i-believe-there-is-a-high-probability-for-approval-of-dcvax-l-nwbo-buy-0-21/

If the market perceived that DCVax-L had a reasonable chance for approval, analysis of peer companies suggests that the market capitalization could be well in excess of $1 billion

2. I do not expect any big pharma to upfront pay a substantial amount of royalty or take a stake in NWBO but only after approval. In approval lies to me the second binary outcome. The reason is the second submitted SAP which the FDA might find only encouraging enough for NWBO to start a second L trial. Im on a 60/40% trajectory approval/no approval even if the outcome is really encouraging. The reason is that the FDA does not like second almost post hoc data SAP's and the company did not comment on how well the submission of the second SAP went.
I think any BP would want to want for that before investing.

3. On Nov 2 we will see meanwhile an enormous influx of new shares, 300 million.

4. IF the FDA approves L then I dont see NWBO get over $ 6 billion MC given the limited market L for GBM caters to.

5. The only way, IMO, to get over an MC that almost all posters here refer to Kite/Juno before they were bought is by initiating Direct.
That could take years still.

So yes I would recommend an investor with 100k's of shares far in the red at $4-$5 to sell at break-even given the high uncertainty as described above. Especially when that investor experiences his whole investment as a nightmare like BSB described.

all IMO