NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[GoodGuyBill]

Anders, You just can't believe this. Once the TLD of a trial (that has accumulated 10+ years of "superb" data) is public, the uncertainty will have been significantly reduced.

Point 1: You quoted SOS correctly but you manipulated it for your purposes. You stated,

If TLD is presented and results are superb or considered really well I expect the MC to get somewhere over 1 billion.

But SOS stated,

If the market perceived that DCVax-L had a reasonable chance for approval, analysis of peer companies suggests that the market capitalization could be well in excess of $1 billion.

You do recognize that "somewhere over 1 billion" is very different than "well in excess of $1 billion". It appears you watered-down SOS's statement to fit you personal, pre-established position.

Furthermore, I would strongly suggest that SOS's view that "If the market perceived that DCVax-L had a reasonable chance for approval..." did not take into account your position of a "superb" OS TLD. I would think SOS would think this would result in a highly likely, almost certain, approval rather than a mere "reasonable chance"?

Point 2: I have no idea how (with a "superb" OS TLD!!!!!) you could conclude, "I do not expect any big pharma to upfront pay a substantial amount of royalty or take a stake in NWBO but only after approval". You must think BP does not have the know-how to evaluate the data, despite the fact that even mb posters (i.e. AlphaPuppy and others) can analyze. Clearly you have not noticed that BP purchases companies routinely that haven't completed TLD. i just googled "merck small-cap biotech purchases" and here's the 1st item in the search list:

Under the terms of the deal, Merck will pay KalVista a $37 million upfront fee for certain rights, including the option to acquire a drug known as KVD001 after KalVista completes a Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial. The trial is set to begin later this year.

Come on Anders. You can't be serious that the most significant GBM drug of the century with 10+ years of superb OS TLD would not result in an attempt by BP to partner/bo NWBO before approval...DESPITE THE FACT THAT DCVAX-L MAY RENDER SOME OF THEIR PROFITABLE PRODUCTS OBSOLETE?!

Point 3: True, 300 new shares (via warrants) is a lot but once superb TLD is out and LP/NWBO (and all the renowned doctors who signed off on the interim data) hit the airways to explain the data and its practical implications, it won't matter. When good 'ol American greed kicks in, 300 million shares will be a mere hiccup. And please don't tell me about how brokerages, hedge-funds and other major investors can't invest in OTC stocks or stocks under $5, $1, etc. When that superb TLD is announced and explained, wall-street will start jockeying in position (if they haven't already) to see how they can capitalize...rules be damned!

Point 4: This statement is just disingenuous. If DCVAX-L is approved, it will become SOC in the U.S. and Europe (there is no other treatment). This alone will result in way more than a $6 billion MC. Have you considered that Doctors will use L for off label cancers? By the way, you stated that BP would invest in NWBO only AFTER approval. did you factor in the impact of BP stamp of approval on, and investment in, NWBO? Of course, you didn't...lol. But more importantly DCVAX-L's approval will grease the skids for approval for DIRECT (or at least draw attention to its more probable approval).

Point 5: NWBO will hit a higher MC before Direct is approved. DCVAX_L, if successful, will significantly shorten a P3 trial because the lessons learned will be applied to the new trial and the L P3 SAP and the new Federal Guidelines will serve as a template for Direct P3...which L did not have. The direct trial, assuming approval of L, will take less then 18 months.

But....what do I know.

So yes I would recommend an investor with 100k's of shares far in the red at $4-$5 to sell at break-even given the high uncertainty as described above. Especially when that investor experiences his whole investment as a nightmare like BSB described.