Replies to post #289609 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[sukus]

Very well said. Thanks GoodGuy. Excellent points.

[drugrunner]

if nwbo announces positive topline data...

the stock price will run wildly $$$ 1-5-10 a share in short order in line with buyout prices of JUNO n KITE..

then the real fun starts..


many will then take the bird in the hand!!!! get whole plus a nice profit..

i will sell some -- let the rest ride to become F - you money...$$$

[exwannabe]

"Superb" is in the eye of the beholder.

In my eyes "superb" would be both endpoints stat sig per original design in the ITT populations. In that case I would agree with you.

OTOH, if the results come in instead as subgroups, historical comps, attempts to adjust for x-over or any such then I think the story is very different.

IMO, there are two interesting outcomes in the mixed cases. One is the trial formally works but the data is unimpressive. In that case I would expect the post news pop to fade.

The other case is the trial formally fails (as I expect PFS to be a gate on that) but OS is clear and positive. In that case it could very well be a buy after the news. The market has long learned to discount bios asserting positive news on a formally failed trial. But this case would be the exception.

Of course, we still could have a few years to change our minds :-)

[anders2211]

many id not most longs purchase some or all of their NWBO stock when it was $4 - $12 and held down to 14 cents (when info was scarce), how can you recommend to sell at break-even AFTER superb TLD validates DCVAX. Do you honestly think even one long will sell?

You misread most of my post since, as what happens more often here, there were more posts before that. Anyway to answer your question.

Assuming BSB's average SP investment or anyone else's SP is $ 4-5 and then with the 100k's of shares he is holding then yes I would recommend him or anyone else to sell at break-even if the SP reaches that level.

The reason why, and I have iterated this before, is because of the following.

1. If TLD is presented and results are superb or considered really well I expect the MC to get somewhere over 1 billion. That is not my estimate but the estimate of SOS https://smithonstocks.com/northwest-biotherapeutics-why-i-believe-there-is-a-high-probability-for-approval-of-dcvax-l-nwbo-buy-0-21/

If the market perceived that DCVax-L had a reasonable chance for approval, analysis of peer companies suggests that the market capitalization could be well in excess of $1 billion

2. I do not expect any big pharma to upfront pay a substantial amount of royalty or take a stake in NWBO but only after approval. In approval lies to me the second binary outcome. The reason is the second submitted SAP which the FDA might find only encouraging enough for NWBO to start a second L trial. Im on a 60/40% trajectory approval/no approval even if the outcome is really encouraging. The reason is that the FDA does not like second almost post hoc data SAP's and the company did not comment on how well the submission of the second SAP went.
I think any BP would want to want for that before investing.

3. On Nov 2 we will see meanwhile an enormous influx of new shares, 300 million.

4. IF the FDA approves L then I dont see NWBO get over $ 6 billion MC given the limited market L for GBM caters to.

5. The only way, IMO, to get over an MC that almost all posters here refer to Kite/Juno before they were bought is by initiating Direct.
That could take years still.

So yes I would recommend an investor with 100k's of shares far in the red at $4-$5 to sell at break-even given the high uncertainty as described above. Especially when that investor experiences his whole investment as a nightmare like BSB described.

all IMO