I could not disagree with you more. It is, imho, absolutely insane to suggest that if "the science is solid" and the "TLD is superb", one should "sell when at break-even and never look back".
If the science is solid and the data turns out to be "superb", this means the efficacy of DCVAX-L (and DCVAX-DIRECT indirectly) has been proven, supported with 10+ years of data (more data that any trial probably in the history of the FDA)!. This validates a truly DISRUPTIVE drug for an almost 100%-fatal disease (GBM), which has not seen any real treatment improvement in multiple decades!
Furthermore, to state that after "superb" overall survival TLD results "there still will be very high uncertainty if DCVAX will be approved given the new SAP and the, again lack of trancepary of the new SAP" is, imho, ludicrous. Assuming the science is solid and OS TLD is superb, NWBO will be in the catbird seat. NWBO will have a disruptive drug that will enhance the effectiveness of BP treatments (like Keytruda). How can you suggest that these BPs, looking at 10+ years of proven (including superb OS) TLD, will not be willing to invest in NWBO until after DCVAX? You base this opinion solely on the rewrite of the SAP and the lack of transparency on the rewrite. Did you forget that MERCK helped to rewrite the new SAP and most assuredly had complete visibility to it?
many id not most longs purchase some or all of their NWBO stock when it was $4 - $12 and held down to 14 cents (when info was scarce), how can you recommend to sell at break-even AFTER superb TLD validates DCVAX. Do you honestly think even one long will sell?
You are wrong, wrong, wrong, crazy-wrong.
Ok let's assume the science is solid and the(OS) TLD results are superb. Then, after TLD has been revealed,there still will be very high uncertainty if DCVAX will be approved given the new SAP and the, again lack of trancepary of the new SAP. I believe a company such as Merck if in place, will only be willing to invest in whatever form in DCVAX/NWBO, after approval for that exact same reason.
After TLD I expect to see an MC of 25% of total future revenue WW x4 so about 3 billion = between $ 1,5 and $ 3 per share in the weeks after TLD.
If I were you I would sell when at break-even and never look back.