Hi MG,
Want to let you know that effective today I will no longer be posting at any of IHUB boards.
I will see you at X in the future.

Wishing you more successes and best wishes always!

DiscoverGold

Thank you to ALL posters and followers for the many years of loyalty. I will no longer be posting at any of IHUB boards.

Wishing you more successes and best wishes always!

DiscoverGold

Agriculture Master Report
By: Bill Moore | April 16, 2025

MAY CORN



May Corn impressively has rallied 40 cents (450-490) thru the “tariff wars” into the April USDA Report last Thur which was bullish corn! Exports have flourished with 2 flash sales the last 2 days & 1.6mmt export inspections yesterday! Today the mkt is correcting an overbought condition – but going forward, the outlook is bright – solid exports, dry conditions around the corn belt & historically cheap prices! Any weather issues this summer with the US Crop will put a charge into Corn!

MAY BEANS



Remarkably, May Beans have managed to rally 90 cents (970-1050) this month despite the massive tariffs against China – as other countries have stepped up their exports! There is a perception that Trump might roll back the China tariffs much like he’s done with the other countries as he & President could meet soon to negotiate! Much like May Corn, May Beans became overbought & are correcting today! Also, as we enter planting, there is no weather premium built case weather issues arise! Early planting #’s show corn 4% in & beans at 2% – right on the average!

MAY WHT



May Wht has corrected along with May Corn & May Beans as moisture in N Texas & C Oklahoma has improved Winter Wht condition ins! There is still a large fund short position in wht that could morph into a short-covering rally! Many dry areas still exist in the WW areas & this support the mkt on breaks!

JUNE CAT



June Cat has tended to mirror the DJI – breaking $14 (206-192) when the Dow had its precipitous break off the Trump tariffs & recovering $8 (192-200) when Trump delayed most tariffs by 90 days! The mkt will attract important demand to further its rally as the spring barbeque demand kicks in! Thur will be the monthly COF – with the COF-98.3 – Plcmt- 104.2 & Mkt – 100.6~

JUNE HOGS



June Hogs have impressively rallied back $8 (88-96) to close a downside gap & move back into its March congestion area (94-98)! Much like the June Cat, they have benefited from the DJI tariff-delay rally & the onset of Spring Cook-Out demand season for pork & beef- the best of the season!

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Market Breadth taking a beating
By: Barchart | April 16, 2025

🔸 Market Breadth taking a beating.



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Best & Worst Stocks to Own the Week After Easter
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | April 16, 2025

🔸 A potential one-day trade could be beneficial leading up to Good Friday

🔸 Investors should be wary of potential headwinds after the weekend

Markets are closed at the end of the week to observe Good Friday, with Easter happening over the weekend. Now is a good time to see how stocks usually behave around the holiday. We will also look at what market performance leading up to Easter means for the rest of the year, and dig into the best and worst stocks to own the week after.

Days Surrounding Easter

For short-term traders who follow seasonal patterns, Easter gives a well-defined setup. Historically, Holy Thursday has been a bullish day for stocks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been positive 73% of the time, with an average gain of 0.49%. For comparison, the typical day averages a return of 0.04%, with 54% of the returns positive.

That momentum, however, hasn’t carried through the weekend. The Monday after Easter has been weak, averaging a slight loss over the past 30 years, with fewer than half of the returns positive. Given this pattern, a potential one-day trade would be to buy near the market close on Wednesday and sell near the close on Thursday.



Easter and the Rest of the Year

Again, we see a very clear pattern over the past 30 years. The momentum generated from the beginning of the year until Easter has tended to continue throughout the rest of the year. With the SPX down about 7.5% so far in 2025, this is a bad sign.

The table below shows when the index has been down through Easter Sunday, it has averaged a slight loss for the rest of the year, with a median return of -4%. Only 40% of the returns were positive. Compare that to when the SPX has been up on the year through the holiday. In that case, it averaged a return of 11.4% for the rest of the year, with 90% of the returns positive.



Stocks the Week After Easter

Looking at SPX stocks over the past 10 years, the table below shows stocks that outperformed in the week following Easter. Some large cap tech companies tend to perform well next week, with Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all making the cut.



This next list of SPX stocks underperformed in the week after Easter. Energy companies are prominent, and two of the largest telecom companies, Verizon Communications (VZ) and AT&T (T), also made the list.



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AMD doing what it does best—dumping hard on $NVDA H20 news...
By: TrendSpider | April 15, 2025

🔸 AMD doing what it does best—dumping hard on $NVDA H20 news.

$AMD 🔻 -6.40%



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NVIDIA tumbles after hours: U.S. limits chip exports to China...
By: TrendSpider | April 15, 2025

🔸 NVIDIA tumbles after hours:

U.S. limits chip exports to China
? Nvidia hit with new license requirements
? Up to $5.5B in charges expected next quarter

$NVDA -5.60%



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Gold Bulls Hold Control After Channel Breakouts
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025

🔸 Gold’s bullish posture remains intact following two key breakouts, as buyers defend support and prepare for potential gains toward $3,298, $3,335, and $3,355.

Gold retained a bullish posture on Tuesday as it consolidated within Monday’s price range with a high of $3,233 and a low of $3,208. Monday’s high reached a new record high of $3,246, which was only slightly above last week’s high of $3,245. Notice that support was seen today and yesterday at a top trend channel line (blue). A breakout of the channel triggered on Friday, and it was confirmed by both a daily and weekly close above the line.

Earlier last week there was a confirmed breakout above a larger trend channel that is marked with purple lines. The confirmed breakouts of the channels showed strength in demand for gold, while the subsequent test of the top line, which previously represented resistance, is another step towards the potential continuation of the bull trend.



Short-term Weakness Below $3,194

Nonetheless, a drop below today’s low will show short-term weakness and further still on a decline below Monday’s low of $3,194. However, Fridays low of $3,173 is a better judge of support for the three-day price range. And it can be considered along with the April 3 high of $3,168. That was the most recent trend bull breakout level. Both the top purple channel line and the 20-Day MA, now at $3,086, are key potential support areas to watch.

Higher Targets Start at $3,298

On the upside, a decisive breakout above $3,246 has gold heading towards higher potential targets. First, there is a price zone from $3,298 to $3,306, identified from relatively short-term Fibonacci measurements. Subsequently, there are two higher targets at $3,335 and $3,355. The first higher target is a 261.8% extension of the decline from the 2011 peak. Given its very long-term nature, that price level may have greater significance. The next price level is a 200% extended target from a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the August 2018 low.

Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Weekly Chart

There is also a bullish pattern on the weekly chart (not shown) as last week completed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern with a new record high closing price. Given the reaction so far this week, the bulls remain in charge. Confirmed breakouts of two rising channels provide a similar bullish assessment of current demand.

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Gold Bulls Hold Control After Channel Breakouts
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025

🔸 Gold’s bullish posture remains intact following two key breakouts, as buyers defend support and prepare for potential gains toward $3,298, $3,335, and $3,355.

Gold retained a bullish posture on Tuesday as it consolidated within Monday’s price range with a high of $3,233 and a low of $3,208. Monday’s high reached a new record high of $3,246, which was only slightly above last week’s high of $3,245. Notice that support was seen today and yesterday at a top trend channel line (blue). A breakout of the channel triggered on Friday, and it was confirmed by both a daily and weekly close above the line.

Earlier last week there was a confirmed breakout above a larger trend channel that is marked with purple lines. The confirmed breakouts of the channels showed strength in demand for gold, while the subsequent test of the top line, which previously represented resistance, is another step towards the potential continuation of the bull trend.



Short-term Weakness Below $3,194

Nonetheless, a drop below today’s low will show short-term weakness and further still on a decline below Monday’s low of $3,194. However, Fridays low of $3,173 is a better judge of support for the three-day price range. And it can be considered along with the April 3 high of $3,168. That was the most recent trend bull breakout level. Both the top purple channel line and the 20-Day MA, now at $3,086, are key potential support areas to watch.

Higher Targets Start at $3,298

On the upside, a decisive breakout above $3,246 has gold heading towards higher potential targets. First, there is a price zone from $3,298 to $3,306, identified from relatively short-term Fibonacci measurements. Subsequently, there are two higher targets at $3,335 and $3,355. The first higher target is a 261.8% extension of the decline from the 2011 peak. Given its very long-term nature, that price level may have greater significance. The next price level is a 200% extended target from a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the August 2018 low.

Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Weekly Chart

There is also a bullish pattern on the weekly chart (not shown) as last week completed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern with a new record high closing price. Given the reaction so far this week, the bulls remain in charge. Confirmed breakouts of two rising channels provide a similar bullish assessment of current demand.

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Crude Oil Sharp Rebound Sets Stage for Further Upside
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025

🔸 After a 31.6% drop, crude rebounded sharply and is now consolidating, setting the stage for a possible second rally leg above resistance.

Crude oil has been consolidating for the past four days or so following a sharp one-day bullish reversal last Wednesday. A corrective low of $55.23 was established on that day thereby completing a $25.52 or 31.6% decline in the price of crude when measured from the most recent swing high of $80.76 from mid-January. That low completed a 127.2% extension (close enough) of the largest advance (from May 2023 swing low) since the 2022 peak and touched the lower line of a descending parallel trend channel.



Consolidation Sets Stage for Next Run

On Tuesday, the price of crude oil continued to compress as the day’s trading range was the smallest since the early-April interim swing high, which was followed by a sharp drop to $55.23. At the time of this writing, crude is set to end the day’s session with a narrow range inside day with a low of $60.92 and a high of $62.12.

A decline below the low of the day has Monday’s low of $60.68 as the next lower target, followed by Friday’s low of $59.54. On the upside, there is initial potential resistance around Monday’s high of $62.74, followed by last Thursday’s high of $63.45. Thursday’s high just about completed a 50% retracement of the latest downswing.

Second Leg up on Horizon?

An intraday chart (not shown) provides more clues about what price levels to watch. There has been one sharp rally from the lows so far followed by a pullback that completed a little more than a 50% retracement before crude began to strengthen. Once the current consolidation phase is complete it looks like there could be a continuation of the rally from the bottom.

There has been only one leg up from that $55.23 low so far, and at least a second leg up would better complete the counter-trend rally. A breakout above today’s high could begin the next leg up. However, that depends on support being retained at or above last Thursday’s low of $58.86.

Largest Bearish Correction Since May 2023

The recent decline was the largest bearish correction in crude oil since May 2023, and it ended with a sharp rally and one-day bullish reversal with a strong closing price. It seems like there is a good chance that the subsequent rally may eventually test resistance around the 20-Day MA, currently at $66.18, or the 50-Day MA, now at $68.29. Since support was seen at the bottom of the trend channel, there is a chance that resistance may be tested around the top channel line. Nevertheless, channel analysis is one piece of technical evidence for at least a second leg up for the rally.

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Crude Oil Sharp Rebound Sets Stage for Further Upside
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025

🔸 After a 31.6% drop, crude rebounded sharply and is now consolidating, setting the stage for a possible second rally leg above resistance.

Crude oil has been consolidating for the past four days or so following a sharp one-day bullish reversal last Wednesday. A corrective low of $55.23 was established on that day thereby completing a $25.52 or 31.6% decline in the price of crude when measured from the most recent swing high of $80.76 from mid-January. That low completed a 127.2% extension (close enough) of the largest advance (from May 2023 swing low) since the 2022 peak and touched the lower line of a descending parallel trend channel.



Consolidation Sets Stage for Next Run

On Tuesday, the price of crude oil continued to compress as the day’s trading range was the smallest since the early-April interim swing high, which was followed by a sharp drop to $55.23. At the time of this writing, crude is set to end the day’s session with a narrow range inside day with a low of $60.92 and a high of $62.12.

A decline below the low of the day has Monday’s low of $60.68 as the next lower target, followed by Friday’s low of $59.54. On the upside, there is initial potential resistance around Monday’s high of $62.74, followed by last Thursday’s high of $63.45. Thursday’s high just about completed a 50% retracement of the latest downswing.

Second Leg up on Horizon?

An intraday chart (not shown) provides more clues about what price levels to watch. There has been one sharp rally from the lows so far followed by a pullback that completed a little more than a 50% retracement before crude began to strengthen. Once the current consolidation phase is complete it looks like there could be a continuation of the rally from the bottom.

There has been only one leg up from that $55.23 low so far, and at least a second leg up would better complete the counter-trend rally. A breakout above today’s high could begin the next leg up. However, that depends on support being retained at or above last Thursday’s low of $58.86.

Largest Bearish Correction Since May 2023

The recent decline was the largest bearish correction in crude oil since May 2023, and it ended with a sharp rally and one-day bullish reversal with a strong closing price. It seems like there is a good chance that the subsequent rally may eventually test resistance around the 20-Day MA, currently at $66.18, or the 50-Day MA, now at $68.29. Since support was seen at the bottom of the trend channel, there is a chance that resistance may be tested around the top channel line. Nevertheless, channel analysis is one piece of technical evidence for at least a second leg up for the rally.

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Natural Gas Bulls Eye Breakout from Support of Falling Channel
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025

🔸 Natural gas found support near $3.22, forming a bullish hammer that suggests potential reversal, with upside targets near moving averages and prior highs.

Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Tuesday before finding support at $3,22 and bouncing. Support was seen at a lower descending channel line (red highlight) established by extending the original channel (blue trendlines) by 25%. The low for the day essentially completed an 88.6% Fibonacci extension of the prior upswing. Natural gas is on track to close in a bullish position, in the top third of the day’s trading range. If it does so, a bullish hammer candlestick pattern will be generated.



Bull Hammer Breakout Above $3.38

An upside breakout will be triggered on a rally above today’s high. That would put natural gas in a position to eventually test resistance around the top of the channel. For now, the intersection of two trendline at $3.80 can be used as a proxy for the top of the channel. That price level is another price level defined by last Wednesday’s high of $3.83.

Furthermore, better clarity is provided by potential resistance around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.82, and the 50-Day MA at $3.90. Note that the 20-Day MA is falling and will continue to represent a lower price area. It becomes a more significant potential resistance zone if a similar price level is indicated by other analysis.

Rally From Bottom of Channel Targets Top of Range

There is a chance that bullish signs following the completion of an 88.6% retracement may mark the end of the bearish correction. Keep in mind that advances from current levels are counter-trend rallies within a decline trend channel. A rally above the 20-Day MA, followed by a daily close above it would be supportive of the bullish thesis. Earlier signs of strength would be indicated on a rally above Monday’s high of $3. 61. That price would be an initial short-term target following a breakout above today’s high.

Bullish Signs Need Confirmation

Despite the potential for a bullish reversal from a key support zone, a trigger above today’s high is needed for confirmation of strength. There is always a possibility that the bulls cannot maintain control and the bearish correction continues to lower prices. An area of potential support confluence is shown on the chart from $3.08 to $2.99. That price range includes the potentially significant 200-Day MA as possible support at $3.05.

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$NFLX Relative Performance sticking out like a sore thumb
By: TrendSpider | April 15, 2025

🔸 Relative Performance sticking out like a sore thumb.

$NFLX +5.60%



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Silver $SLV - Hows it Doin...
By: Sahara | April 15, 2025

🔸 $SILVER $SLV - Hows it Doin...



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$SPY Millions Worth of 1DTE ATM Puts Lighting Up the Tape
By: Cheddar Flow | April 15, 2025

🔸 $SPY Millions Worth of 1DTE ATM Puts Lighting Up the Tape

Mix between bid/ask and significant volume spike on this contract

Majority (~65%) were sold to open





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$QQQ Millions worth of OTM May Puts
By: Cheddar Flow | April 15, 2025

🔸 $QQQ Millions worth of OTM May Puts

Bearish short-dated flow on QQQ + Bullish short-dated flow on $SPY typically means Chop



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$NVDA Unusual $700M Dark Pool Mid-day Activity
By: Cheddar Flow | April 15, 2025

🔸 $NVDA Unusual $700M Dark Pool Mid-day Activity.



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$SPY $1.9 Million OTM Call ...
By: Cheddar Flow | April 15, 2025

🔸 $SPY $1.9M OTM Call

They want UP in the short-term

*Above the Ask*



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This whale bought $2.2 Million worth of $SPY puts that have a 400 strike
By: Cheddar Flow | April 15, 2025

🔸 Wow. This whale bought $2.2M worth of $SPY puts that have a 400 strike

This is SUPER far OTM and likely a hedge

It's not every day you see that much premium go into -30 delta puts.



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S&P 500 Performance During the Week of Easter
By: Bespoke Investment Group | April 15, 2025

🔸 With all the craziness of the past few weeks, many investors could use a day off to catch their breath, and that's what we'll get later this week. Equity markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. So far during the season of Lent—the more than 40-day period between Ash Wednesday and Easter—markets have appeared to have given up buying. Historically, the bulk of this period (the last close before Ash Wednesday through the last close before Good Friday) has had a positive seasonal bias with an average gain of 1.83% and positive performance 67% of the time. While there are still a few days left, the 5.68% decline this year puts the S&P on pace for the fourth worst performance during Lent of all years since the start of the five-day trading week in 1953. The only years with larger declines were a 10.86% drop in 1980, a 10.82% decline in 2020, and a 5.92% decline in 2001. Again, there are still a few days left, and the elevated volatility recently could change that ranking, but we'd also note in 1994 there was a similar-sized drop to now at 5.66%.



In the chart below, we show the average daily change in the S&P 500 for each day during the holiday-shortened week in addition to Easter Monday. We also include a look at full-week performance for the week and the following week. As shown, the week of Easter has typically held a positive tone with the largest and most consistent gains coming right before the long weekend on Thursday. Monday and Tuesday, on the other hand, have seen the S&P 500 fall more often than not. Regardless, for the full span of "Holy Week", the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.66% gain with positive returns just under two-thirds of the time. After coming back from the holiday, stocks haven't tended to continue rallying. Easter Monday has averaged a decline of 16 bps with positive performance less than half of the time. Once again though, the full week after Easter has seen the S&P 500 generally trade higher.



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Precious Metals Sector Update - Big Golds Major Breakout...
By: Clive Maund | April 14, 2025

The main purpose of this update is to make the point that for the first time since this major bull market phase began early last year, investors are starting to take a serious interest in Precious Metals’ stocks with major breakouts in a range of large and mid-cap gold stocks last week. This means that the sector advance has much further to go, a point that is rammed home by the almost tragic reading of the silver / gold ratio which we will have a look at in this update. We’ll start by swiftly reviewing the latest gold charts, then silver, then the revealing ratio charts, then Precious Metals’ charts (GDX) and lastly take a quick look at the dollar index.
We will begin with a 2-year chart for SPDR Gold Shares which is a reliable proxy for gold and the reason for using this chart instead of the gold chart is that it shows volume, which is important at this juncture. We are looking at a 2-year chart because it shows all of the bull market from when it broke out of its giant Cup & Handle consolidation pattern to begin this major bull market phase. On this chart we can that it has arrived at the upper rails of two channels in an overbought state, and with volume having become heavy, it looks like it is in need of a rest. However, it may not get much of one given the likelihood of an attack on Iran in coming weeks. At the time of writing on Monday morning it is reacting back and it is entitled to, and dips may be bought. Note that the uptrend may be becoming steeper, hence the steeper channel drawn on the chart.



On gold’s 6-year log chart we see that it has risen to the upper rail of its orderly strong uptrend, hence this morning’s creation. So it could use a rest here, although as mentioned above, given what’s going on in the world it may get much of one and before long this uptrend could accelerate and get even steeper. It’s worth observing on this chart that gold was not bothered at all by the recent selloff in the stock market (S&P500 index is shown at the top) – on the contrary, it rose.



The long-term log chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of 2000, gives broader perspective and enables us to see that gold is advancing away in an orderly uptrend from a Cup & Handle continuation pattern that is so gigantic it can clearly support a bull market that will take it much higher than the current price.



Silver meanwhile continues to “drag its feet” like an unwilling child being taken for a walk by gold and it’s remarkable to see on its 2-year chart that it is no higher than it was 11-months ago. This is actually normal early on in a growth phase for the sector and it’s what you want to see, for its a reliable sign that the sector is going much higher.



On its 7-year log chart it is again remarkable to see that silver is still only a shade higher than its mid-2020 and early 2021 highs. However it is “slowly getting with the plot” and is actually in position to slingshot higher which would certainly catch a lot of people by surprise.



The long-term log chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of 2000, gives broader perspective and enables us to see that silver is just starting to advance out of a gigantic Cup & Handle base that is similar to the gigantic Cup & Handle continuation pattern that launched gold higher and a base of this magnitude can clearly support a massive bull market. So there is everything to go for with silver which is viewed as the best investment of all at this time, although gold is where the action is right now.



Now we will look at a couple of ratio charts and start by looking at what is probably the most important chart in this update, which is the long-term chart showing the silver to gold ratio. The rationale behind interpreting this chart is this; when there is a lot of speculative interest in the PM sector, investors favor silver over gold, because it has the capacity to make bigger percentage gains faster – this is what we saw when the sector peaked in 2011 with silver hitting $50 in the late Spring of that year and gold topping out later in the year in September which is why the silver over gold ratio hit a peak. When, on the other hand, the silver over gold ratio is at a low level it means that speculative interest in the sector is at a low ebb, investors have no interest in it, which is very bullish as it means that there is the potential for it to go much higher. This is what we saw at the ratio lows in 2003 before the sector headed much higher, at the lows of the 2008 broad market crash which dragged the PMs down with it (that won’t happen this time as we have seen in recent weeks) and at the time of the Covid Crash in the Spring of 2020 when we saw a freak low as the Goyim thought that the world was coming to an end. As we can see on this chart the ratio dropped to a very very low level just last week as gold soared and silver didn’t do much, not so far from the Covid Crash freak lows. This sort of low reading means that there remains very little retail interest in the sector – this is very bullish for the sector and for silver in particular which is regarded as a “steal” at these prices. As Mike Maloney pointed out in a recent video “I’m Saddened…Whales Are Scooping Up Gold and Silver Not the Middle Class “ Big Money is mopping up gold and silver as fast as it can while the middle class are for the most part just standing around gaping like frightened rabbits.



Now to our other ratio chart that we have been tracking for a while the ratio of gold to the S&P500 index which shows that gold’s big rise over the past year has “barely moved the needle” on the long-term chart compared to the broad US stock market against which it is still at a low historic valuation. This started to change just this year…



On the shorter-term 2-year chart for the ratio of gold to the S&P500 index however we can see that there has been a dramatic shift just this year in favour of gold and while there may be some rebalancing of this ratio as it is so overbought short-term, it is expected to continue to much higher levels as implied by the long-term chart above.



Now we come to the main subject of this article which is the sudden increase in interest in the Precious Metals sector, and it’s about time, considering how much gold has risen.

We can see this sudden increase in interest on the year-to-date chart for GDX on which we can observe that, after trending steadily higher from the start of this year, it suddenly zoomed higher last week in a straight up move, which was the result of a number of major breakouts by large and mid-cap gold stocks. Whilst it is clearly overbought here with the gap up on Friday suggesting temporary exhaustion and a possible reaction, the move itself has strongly bullish implications.



The 6-year chart for GDX is most illuminating as it reveals that the PM sector has only just started to advance in a serious manner following its recent breakout from a giant Bowl pattern that has been forming from mid-2020 and is only just completing now. A Bowl of this magnitude can support a major bull market and it is clear, looking at this chart, that a major bull market has only just begun and also that there is plenty of scope for the sector to accelerate away to the upside from here…



Lastly, the 5-year chart for the US dollar index shows us a big reason why the Precious Metals are likely to accelerate away to the upside. Last week the dollar broke down from a large top area and having done so is vulnerable to a severe decline. This is hardly surprising given that the rest of the world is looking to ditch the dollar after Trump’s tariff rampage of the past several weeks and bearing in mind that trillions more dollars are set to be spirited into existence to effect a massive bailout of failing hedge funds.



As mentioned above, one of the reasons for the strong performance by GDX last week was that several gold stocks are breaking out of giant base patterns. An example is IAMGOLD which was recommended for purchase on the site in February at $6.24. Here is the chart for IAMGOLD posted on the site last Friday showing how it is on the point of breaking out of the top of a giant Double Bottom base pattern and once it succeeds in breaking clear out of it, it should rise very rapidly as indicated and of course many large golds will probably do likewise. If we do see it slip back into pattern on a minor sector reaction it will provide an excuse to buy more.



So, in conclusion, it looks like we are still in the early stages of what should prove to be an epochal bull market for the Precious Metals sector, that could dwarf all previous ones.

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Precious Metals Sector Update - Big Golds Major Breakout...
By: Clive Maund | April 14, 2025

The main purpose of this update is to make the point that for the first time since this major bull market phase began early last year, investors are starting to take a serious interest in Precious Metals’ stocks with major breakouts in a range of large and mid-cap gold stocks last week. This means that the sector advance has much further to go, a point that is rammed home by the almost tragic reading of the silver / gold ratio which we will have a look at in this update. We’ll start by swiftly reviewing the latest gold charts, then silver, then the revealing ratio charts, then Precious Metals’ charts (GDX) and lastly take a quick look at the dollar index.
We will begin with a 2-year chart for SPDR Gold Shares which is a reliable proxy for gold and the reason for using this chart instead of the gold chart is that it shows volume, which is important at this juncture. We are looking at a 2-year chart because it shows all of the bull market from when it broke out of its giant Cup & Handle consolidation pattern to begin this major bull market phase. On this chart we can that it has arrived at the upper rails of two channels in an overbought state, and with volume having become heavy, it looks like it is in need of a rest. However, it may not get much of one given the likelihood of an attack on Iran in coming weeks. At the time of writing on Monday morning it is reacting back and it is entitled to, and dips may be bought. Note that the uptrend may be becoming steeper, hence the steeper channel drawn on the chart.



On gold’s 6-year log chart we see that it has risen to the upper rail of its orderly strong uptrend, hence this morning’s creation. So it could use a rest here, although as mentioned above, given what’s going on in the world it may get much of one and before long this uptrend could accelerate and get even steeper. It’s worth observing on this chart that gold was not bothered at all by the recent selloff in the stock market (S&P500 index is shown at the top) – on the contrary, it rose.



The long-term log chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of 2000, gives broader perspective and enables us to see that gold is advancing away in an orderly uptrend from a Cup & Handle continuation pattern that is so gigantic it can clearly support a bull market that will take it much higher than the current price.



Silver meanwhile continues to “drag its feet” like an unwilling child being taken for a walk by gold and it’s remarkable to see on its 2-year chart that it is no higher than it was 11-months ago. This is actually normal early on in a growth phase for the sector and it’s what you want to see, for its a reliable sign that the sector is going much higher.



On its 7-year log chart it is again remarkable to see that silver is still only a shade higher than its mid-2020 and early 2021 highs. However it is “slowly getting with the plot” and is actually in position to slingshot higher which would certainly catch a lot of people by surprise.



The long-term log chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of 2000, gives broader perspective and enables us to see that silver is just starting to advance out of a gigantic Cup & Handle base that is similar to the gigantic Cup & Handle continuation pattern that launched gold higher and a base of this magnitude can clearly support a massive bull market. So there is everything to go for with silver which is viewed as the best investment of all at this time, although gold is where the action is right now.



Now we will look at a couple of ratio charts and start by looking at what is probably the most important chart in this update, which is the long-term chart showing the silver to gold ratio. The rationale behind interpreting this chart is this; when there is a lot of speculative interest in the PM sector, investors favor silver over gold, because it has the capacity to make bigger percentage gains faster – this is what we saw when the sector peaked in 2011 with silver hitting $50 in the late Spring of that year and gold topping out later in the year in September which is why the silver over gold ratio hit a peak. When, on the other hand, the silver over gold ratio is at a low level it means that speculative interest in the sector is at a low ebb, investors have no interest in it, which is very bullish as it means that there is the potential for it to go much higher. This is what we saw at the ratio lows in 2003 before the sector headed much higher, at the lows of the 2008 broad market crash which dragged the PMs down with it (that won’t happen this time as we have seen in recent weeks) and at the time of the Covid Crash in the Spring of 2020 when we saw a freak low as the Goyim thought that the world was coming to an end. As we can see on this chart the ratio dropped to a very very low level just last week as gold soared and silver didn’t do much, not so far from the Covid Crash freak lows. This sort of low reading means that there remains very little retail interest in the sector – this is very bullish for the sector and for silver in particular which is regarded as a “steal” at these prices. As Mike Maloney pointed out in a recent video “I’m Saddened…Whales Are Scooping Up Gold and Silver Not the Middle Class “ Big Money is mopping up gold and silver as fast as it can while the middle class are for the most part just standing around gaping like frightened rabbits.



Now to our other ratio chart that we have been tracking for a while the ratio of gold to the S&P500 index which shows that gold’s big rise over the past year has “barely moved the needle” on the long-term chart compared to the broad US stock market against which it is still at a low historic valuation. This started to change just this year…



On the shorter-term 2-year chart for the ratio of gold to the S&P500 index however we can see that there has been a dramatic shift just this year in favour of gold and while there may be some rebalancing of this ratio as it is so overbought short-term, it is expected to continue to much higher levels as implied by the long-term chart above.



Now we come to the main subject of this article which is the sudden increase in interest in the Precious Metals sector, and it’s about time, considering how much gold has risen.

We can see this sudden increase in interest on the year-to-date chart for GDX on which we can observe that, after trending steadily higher from the start of this year, it suddenly zoomed higher last week in a straight up move, which was the result of a number of major breakouts by large and mid-cap gold stocks. Whilst it is clearly overbought here with the gap up on Friday suggesting temporary exhaustion and a possible reaction, the move itself has strongly bullish implications.



The 6-year chart for GDX is most illuminating as it reveals that the PM sector has only just started to advance in a serious manner following its recent breakout from a giant Bowl pattern that has been forming from mid-2020 and is only just completing now. A Bowl of this magnitude can support a major bull market and it is clear, looking at this chart, that a major bull market has only just begun and also that there is plenty of scope for the sector to accelerate away to the upside from here…



Lastly, the 5-year chart for the US dollar index shows us a big reason why the Precious Metals are likely to accelerate away to the upside. Last week the dollar broke down from a large top area and having done so is vulnerable to a severe decline. This is hardly surprising given that the rest of the world is looking to ditch the dollar after Trump’s tariff rampage of the past several weeks and bearing in mind that trillions more dollars are set to be spirited into existence to effect a massive bailout of failing hedge funds.



As mentioned above, one of the reasons for the strong performance by GDX last week was that several gold stocks are breaking out of giant base patterns. An example is IAMGOLD which was recommended for purchase on the site in February at $6.24. Here is the chart for IAMGOLD posted on the site last Friday showing how it is on the point of breaking out of the top of a giant Double Bottom base pattern and once it succeeds in breaking clear out of it, it should rise very rapidly as indicated and of course many large golds will probably do likewise. If we do see it slip back into pattern on a minor sector reaction it will provide an excuse to buy more.



So, in conclusion, it looks like we are still in the early stages of what should prove to be an epochal bull market for the Precious Metals sector, that could dwarf all previous ones.

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Boeing Stock Glides Lower on China Delivery Halt
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | April 15, 2025

🔸 China suspended jet deliveries from Boeing amid a trade war with the U.S.

🔸 BA is down over 8% since the start of April

Aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) is pumping the breaks on its recent rally. The security was last seen down 1.8% at $156.50, after Bloomberg reported that China ordered carriers to suspend jet deliveries amid the trade war with the U.S. The country's top three airliners, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, had planned to take delivery of a combined total of 179 Boeing planes in the next two years.

It's worth noting that Morgan Stanley stated there was minimal downside risk from China's delivery halt. The country only makes up 6% of total Boeing deliveries, compared to 10 years ago when it was easily 20% on any given year.

During this past month's tariff-related volatility, Boeing stock saw a sharp selloff followed by an extended bounce starting April 7. Familiar pressure at the $160 level seems to have kept the rally in check, however. The equity is historically an April underperformer, down 8.5% since the start of the month, and also carrying an 11.9% year-to-date deficit.

Calls have been more popular than usual in the options pits. BA's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.02 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 84% of readings from the past year. Should some of this optimism start to unwind, it could provide further headwinds.

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$BRK.B $1.2 Million Call
By: Cheddar Flow | April 15, 2025

🔸 "Buy American, I am".



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China reports 5.4k Tesla registrations for the week of April 7-13
By: Roland Pircher | April 15, 2025

🔸 China reports 5.4k Tesla registrations for the week of April 7-13.

The week is up 49.6% from last week and -12.2% year-over-year. The quarter is -32.3% QoQ and +12.2% YoY and -49.7% vs. 24Q3 the best quarter after 2 weeks. YTD is at +2.4% YoY. Highest week of the quarter.



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Crude Oil Continues to See Basing Pattern
By: Christopher Lewis | April 15, 2025

🔸 The crude oil market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as the market continues to see a lot of traders trying to form a bottom in this market that has been slammed as of late.

CL/WTI Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but has turned right back around. I really think at this point in time, we are probably more or less looking at this as a potential consolidation area, maybe a basing pattern. It is worth noting that the volume has picked up a little bit. So that helps with the idea of accumulation as well.

I think the $63 level remains somewhat important, and I’m pretty sure we’re $60 itself as well. If we can break above $63, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $65 level, which, of course, had previously been support and should now be resistant. There are still a lot of concerns about global demand, so that, of course, continues to keep this market somewhat subdued.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent looks very much the same as it is trading just below the $65 level, an area that of course has a little bit of psychology attached to it, but if we can break above $66, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $70 level. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time are buying opportunities, especially with the $60 level hanging out just below, which, of course, is a large round psychologically significant figure that a lot of people would be paying close attention to.

And of course, an area where we had seen a lot of volume the last time we were there. So, with that being said, I think you have to like the idea of a consolidation area here. Now we have to see if we can get some type of good news to get the idea of demand picking up to drive prices higher.

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Gold Continues to Look Bullish
By: Christopher Lewis | April 15, 2025

🔸 The gold market continues to see a lot of buying pressure, as we are levitating to high levels again. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see “buy on the dip” mentality.

Gold Technical Analysis

The gold market has rallied slightly during the trading session here on Tuesday in the early hours, but we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. This looks like a market to me that is doing everything it can to build up a little bit of consolidation, maybe digesting some of those massive gains that we had previously. Regardless, it’s obvious that you cannot be a seller of gold. Most of the selling in gold at the moment is probably more along the lines of profit taking, which makes sense because we had a $250 move in just three trading sessions.

Gold, of course, has seen the 3000 level be fairly important and now we have the 50 day EMA sitting there as well. So, I think all things being equal, it’ll be an interesting setup, but I do believe that gold will continue to be one that you’re looking for dips in order to take advantage of. When you look at the bullish flag that we had been in previously, the measured move was for $3300. And at this point in time, there’s literally nothing on this chart that even remotely suggests we can’t get there.

Ultimately, I don’t even think we can reach the $3000 level to find that support, at least not unless something drastic happens out there because, quite frankly, markets have been so bullish for gold that I just don’t see how that changes. With this, the market is likely to continue to see more of that sudden pullback, a sudden rally type of situation on shorter term charts.

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$SIL $SILVER #Miners - Poppin Charging toward that $47.50 Target...
By: Sahara | April 15, 2025

🔸 $SIL $SILVER #Miners - Poppin

Charging toward that $47.50 Target...



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Technical Overbought/Sold Composite Chart
By: Isabelnet | April 15, 2025

🔸 S&P 500

Currently at 7.71, the S&P 500 is in deeply oversold territory, increasing the likelihood of a bounce-back in the US stock market.



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S&P 500: NYSE's surging advancing volume on Wednesday is highly bullish, with historical data since 1980 showing the S&P 500 consistently gaining over 3-, 6-, and 12-month periods afterward, averaging a 29.2% annual return
By: Isabelnet | April 15, 2025

🔸 S&P 500

NYSE's surging advancing volume on Wednesday is highly bullish, with historical data since 1980 showing the S&P 500 consistently gaining over 3-, 6-, and 12-month periods afterward, averaging a 29.2% annual return.



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Equity: Consolidated equity positioning at the 2nd percentile highlights elevated risk aversion in today's market, suggesting significant upside potential should trade tensions ease
By: Isabelnet | April 15, 2025

🔸 Equity

Consolidated equity positioning at the 2nd percentile highlights elevated risk aversion in today's market, suggesting significant upside potential should trade tensions ease.



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Today Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is the best performer in the DJIA
By: Thom Hartle | April 15, 2025

🔸 Today (8:32 CST), the best performer in the DJIA is Goldman Sachs Group. GS.



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$GOOG Long-term Alphabet investors have happily paid 17–18x earnings for a decade...
By: TrendSpider | April 15, 2025

🔸 Long-term Alphabet investors have happily paid 17–18x earnings for a decade...

We’re nearing that valuation again right now. $GOOG



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Nothing but lower highs on $NVDA since the all-time high over 3 months ago…
By: TrendSpider | April 15, 2025

🔸 Nothing but lower highs on $NVDA since the all-time high over 3 months ago…

Needs a breakout above $122 to flip the script.



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Bullish Percent Index Confirms Short-Term Rebound
By: David Keller | April 14, 2025

🔸 The Bullish Percent Index for both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have made moves similar to previous swing lows.
🔸 A long-term review of these signals yields mixed results, especially during sustained bearish market regimes.

One of my favorite market breadth indicators remained in an extreme bearish reading through the end of last week, standing in stark contrast to growing optimism after last Wednesday's sudden spike higher. Monday's session saw the Bullish Percent Indexes cross above the crucial 30% level for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. While I remain skeptical of meaningful upside without further confirmation, this bullish rotation does seem to confirm a short-term tactical rally for stocks.

Bullish Percent Index Shows Improved Breadth for S&P 500

The Bullish Percent Index uses point & figure charts to analyze the percentage of stocks in a universe that are in uptrends. By looking at the most recent buy or sell signal on each individual point & figure chart, the indicator can help validate when a critical mass of stocks have rotated from a bearish phase to a bullish phase.



At the end of September 2024, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index showed a reading just above 80%. By early December, the indicator was down to around 70%, and, at the February 2025 high, had reached 55%. Last week, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index was just above 10%. Indeed, almost all of the S&P 500 members were in confirmed point & figure downtrends.

Breadth Surge Similar to Previous Lows

The Bullish Percent Index for the Nasdaq 100 as well as the S&P 500 both spiked higher by the end of last week following the latest changes to US tariff policy. As of Monday's close, the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index had reached 39%, up from 6% a week earlier.



We can see four other times in the last two years where the Bullish Percent Index has touched the 30% level, and in three of the four times this reversal marked a significant low for the Nasdaq 100. The most recent observation was last month, which saw a brief upswing before the latest downturn for the major equity averages.

So for both the Nasdaq 100 as well as the S&P 500, a move back above the 30% threshold appears to indicate a decent chance at a tradable move higher. But will that upswing necessarily lead to sustainable gains?

Long-Term Review Yields Mixed Results

Let's take a longer look back to the year 2000 and see what has happened following a move below the 30% level for the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index. Now we can see that while major lows often coincide with the indicator moving back above 30%, and we can also see plenty of times where an initial bounce higher was eventually met with further selling.



Note the extreme low readings in June 2022, August 2015, and January 2009. Even though there was an initial swing higher in all three cases, the market made a new swing low before achieving an eventual bottom for the bear cycle.

With the Bullish Percent Indexes rotating back to a more neutral reading this week, we are seeing plenty of signs of a tactical rally. We may even see our Market Trend Model turn bullish on the short-term time frame as early as this Friday. But with the major averages still making a clear pattern of lower lows and lower highs, we feel further confirmation is necessary before declaring any sort of "all clear" for US stocks.

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$TSLA bulls holding the line at the most traded price since the COVID crash: $245 — the Volume PoC
By: TrendSpider | April 14, 2025

🔸 $TSLA bulls holding the line at the most traded price since the COVID crash:

$245 — the Volume PoC



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Silver Rally Faces Key Resistance Near 50-Day Moving Average
By: Bruce Powers | April 14, 2025

🔸 Silver reached a new rally high of $32.39 as it continued to challenge a potential resistance zone represented by the 50-Day moving average.

Silver advanced to a slightly higher high of $32.39 on Monday and further tested a potential resistance zone first reached last Friday. The sharp rise observed last week occurred after a brief undercut of the higher swing low recorded in December. Support was seen at a low of $28.32 before buyers took back control, which led to a strong rally.

Strength was confirmed during the subsequent advance that continued throughout the week, with a reclaim of the 200-Day MA on Wednesday, now at $30.93, and a rise above another trendline on Friday. Furthermore, last Friday’s low of $30.92 tested support at the 200-Day MA before silver continued higher into a potential resistance zone.



Signs of Strength Remain

Friday’s advance to a high of $32.31 completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $32.19 and tested resistance at another trendline. The day ended at the high of the day and at the trendline but above the Fibonacci level. Signs of strength continued Monday, today, as silver traded in the top half of last Friday’s wide range day. It is on track to close strong, near the highs of the day and possibly above last week’s high. Therefore, a daily close above $32.31 will confirm the bull trend continuation signal.

Momentum Slows

Nevertheless, in the short-term silver may be extended as it challenges a key resistance zone. In particular, the 50-Day MA is at $32.51. It was a key trend indicator showing potential support until it failed on April 3, as silver fell sharply through the 20-Day MA, the 50-Day MA, and an uptrend line in one day. The decline was confirmed with a daily close below the trendline.

Prior support of the uptrend was successfully tested as resistance last Friday and then again today. Since silver has advanced by as much as $4.08 or 14.4% as of today’s high, bullish momentum may not be strong enough to reclaim the 50-Day MA and keep rising. A pullback or consolidation may come first. That was a relatively sharp advance in a short amount of time.

50-Day Line Challenges the Advance

However, if silver can reclaim the 50-Day line and then keep rising, the 20-Day MA could see signs of resistance, now at $32.66, and the 78.6% retracement is at $33.25. Either price level could see signs of resistance. A daily close above the 50-Day MA will show continued strength and improve the chance of siler continuing higher.

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Natural Gas Slumps Toward 200-Day Moving Average Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 14, 2025

🔸 Natural gas broke to $3.31 with bearish signals increasing, likely setting up a test of multi-indicator support around the 200-Day MA near $3.05.

Further bearish signs were indicated for natural gas on Monday as it dropped to a new corrective low of $3.31. Signs of weakness will likely to be confirmed today by a new lower daily closing price, which may be below the 78.6% support zone at $3.40, and possibly below the lower line of a falling trend channel. Note that the channel is extended on the bottom by 25%. The extended lower line is where support for the decline was previously, from last Wednesday.



Bearish Momentum Dominates

Trading continues near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and natural gas looks poised to close in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Currently, the low for the day is $3.31. Monday’s session began with a brief rally above Friday’s high to a high of $3.61. A retest of resistance around the center line of a falling parallel trend channel occurred before sellers took back control. A bearish outside day subsequently formed as Friday’s low was busted. Furthermore, the lower line of the descending parallel channel has also failed to hold as support.

Test of 200-Day Moving Average Likely

This puts natural gas in a position to possibly test support around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.05. There are several other indicators pointing out that price zone as possible support. A falling ABCD pattern completes at $3.08, while a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at $3.03, coinciding with support from the January 31 swing low at $2.99. In addition, a breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern triggered on a move above $3.02 in November. Therefore, along with the last-January swing low, the current decline may provide a retest of that breakout zone.

Multiple Signs of Support Around $3.05

The 200-Day MA was last reclaimed in September of last year and that was followed by a successful test of the line as support later in October. Since then, the price of natural gas has not approached the 200-Day line. Therefore, given the indicator confluence around the 200-Day line, the expectation is for support to be seen. Moreover, although a decline below the line is a bearish sign. Natural gas has been falling since a high of $4.90 and it may run out of bearish momentum by the time it tests the 200-Day MA.

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Natural Gas Slumps Toward 200-Day Moving Average Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 14, 2025

🔸 Natural gas broke to $3.31 with bearish signals increasing, likely setting up a test of multi-indicator support around the 200-Day MA near $3.05.

Further bearish signs were indicated for natural gas on Monday as it dropped to a new corrective low of $3.31. Signs of weakness will likely to be confirmed today by a new lower daily closing price, which may be below the 78.6% support zone at $3.40, and possibly below the lower line of a falling trend channel. Note that the channel is extended on the bottom by 25%. The extended lower line is where support for the decline was previously, from last Wednesday.



Bearish Momentum Dominates

Trading continues near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and natural gas looks poised to close in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Currently, the low for the day is $3.31. Monday’s session began with a brief rally above Friday’s high to a high of $3.61. A retest of resistance around the center line of a falling parallel trend channel occurred before sellers took back control. A bearish outside day subsequently formed as Friday’s low was busted. Furthermore, the lower line of the descending parallel channel has also failed to hold as support.

Test of 200-Day Moving Average Likely

This puts natural gas in a position to possibly test support around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.05. There are several other indicators pointing out that price zone as possible support. A falling ABCD pattern completes at $3.08, while a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at $3.03, coinciding with support from the January 31 swing low at $2.99. In addition, a breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern triggered on a move above $3.02 in November. Therefore, along with the last-January swing low, the current decline may provide a retest of that breakout zone.

Multiple Signs of Support Around $3.05

The 200-Day MA was last reclaimed in September of last year and that was followed by a successful test of the line as support later in October. Since then, the price of natural gas has not approached the 200-Day line. Therefore, given the indicator confluence around the 200-Day line, the expectation is for support to be seen. Moreover, although a decline below the line is a bearish sign. Natural gas has been falling since a high of $4.90 and it may run out of bearish momentum by the time it tests the 200-Day MA.

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Oil rises marginally on tariff exemption, Chinese crude imports
By: Reuters | April 14, 2025

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices settled slightly higher on Monday on exemptions for some electronics from U.S. tariffs and data showing a sharp rebound in China’s crude imports in March, but gains were limited by concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand.

Brent crude futures closed 12 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $64.88 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3 cents higher at $61.53.

Late on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods imported largely from China. It was the latest in a series of policy announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back, spurring uncertainty for investors and businesses.

Trump said on Sunday he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week.

Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries.

However, Brent and WTI have lost about $10 a barrel since the start of the month and analysts have lowered oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies has intensified.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report on Monday that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, down by 150,000 bpd from last month’s forecast, citing trade tariffs among the reasons.

"OPEC cutting its global demand forecast just underscores the troubled outlook we have here from the tariffs and all the other uncertainty in the market," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.

"Markets are still continuing to sort out the impact of the tariffs and this escalation with China," Kilduff said.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026.

It sees global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 rising by only 300,000 bpd year on year, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note, adding that slowing demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical feedstocks.

UBS reduced its Brent forecasts by $12 a barrel to $68. At the same time, it expects WTI to trade at $64 a barrel. JPMorgan lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and next year, citing higher production from OPEC+ and weaker demand.

The Brent price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 has flipped into contango as investors have priced in oversupply and demand concerns, said BMI, part of Fitch Solutions. In a contango market, front-month prices are lower than those in future months, indicating no shortage of supply.

Potentially supporting oil prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday the United States could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump’s plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme.

Iran and the U.S. held "positive" and "constructive" talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to reconvene next week, officials said over the weekend.

Also hurting prices, South Bow detailed plans for a controlled restart of the Keystone pipeline on Monday after an oil leak last week forced it to shut the key conduit for crude oil between Canada and the United States.

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