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$QQQ Call Sweepers Stepping in
By: Cheddar Flow | September 3, 2024
• $QQQ Call Sweepers Stepping in
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | September 3, 2024
• Today (8:35 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the S&P 500 Index.
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The 10 Top/Bottom NASDAQ 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | September 3, 2024
• Today (8:35 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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What a Heavily Shorted Market Could Mean for Bears
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | September 3, 2024
• In non-presidential election years, the odds of a higher September drop to 42%
• The SPX has chopped around the 5,600-century mark since Aug. 19
"…the SPX has covered considerable ground, traveling more than 1,050 points from its mid-July closing high to the Aug. 5 intraday low and back to Friday’s close in a ‘V-shaped’ pattern...a s equity option buyers grow more optimistic, the SPX is only one-half percentage-point below its all-time closing high of 5,667, which is the next obvious level of potential resistance."
- Monday Morning Outlook, August 26, 2024
The final two weeks of August both mirrored and significantly contrasted the first half of the month. If you compare the S&0 500 Index (SPX–5,648.40) closes going into August with the mid-month close, they are about the same. And if you compare the mid-August SPX price with the end price, they are also similar.
It is the contrasting path the SPX took in the first two weeks relative to the second that intrigues me. Per last week’s observation, the first half of the month was characterized by the SPX traveling approximately 1,050 points from high to low, and back to the mid-month high in a “V-shaped” rally.
But since the “V” rally was completed, the SPX has chopped around the 5,600-century mark, with multiple touches of this level from Aug. 19 into the month’s end. Plus, there have been equidistant moves above and below this level of roughly 40 points, defining the range high and low of 5,560 and 5,640.
In fact, the 5,560 level that marked the bottom of the two-week narrow range was the intraday high on the morning of Aug. 1 before vicious selling took place, with the SPX troughing just two trading days later at 5,120.
As such, the first levels of support and resistance are at 5,560 and 5,640. Another layer of potential resistance is around 5,670, or the mid-July all-time high. If the range low of 5,560 breaks to the downside, another layer of potential support sits in the 5,500-5,510 range, the site of its advancing 50-day moving average and the level that's 20% above the July 2023 closing high.
Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings last week, which was billed as the most important earnings report of the season, given its artificial intelligence (AI) technology and market cap. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently made comments that it’s time to adjust the interest rate policy, amid reports on inflation and employment. None of these had the muscle power to move the SPX out of its narrow range in the second half of August, though.
Now what? We are moving into September, a month that has tended to be more rewarding for bears than bulls. Ironically, amid the uncertainty of presidential election years, the odds that September ends higher is the best, relative to non-election years, with a 50% chance September ends higher in presidential election years.
In non-presidential election years, the odds of a higher September drop to 42%, driven primarily negative returns in the September that precedes a presidential election year. In fact, the SPX was lower 4.6% in September 2023, on cue with the low chance it had of being profitable.
The bad news and good news is that while September is negative on average, whether it's a presidential election year or not, the average loss is less severe during presidential election years.
Looking ahead, we are all wondering how the SPX will work itself out of the current range, with the arrival of negative September seasonality. One clue as the benchmark enters the week at the top of its range could be in the candle that emerged on Aug. 22 -- a bearish outside day, as defined by the intraday high above the prior day’s intraday peak, but the intraday low and close being below the prior day’s intraday low.
On the SPX chart above, I differentiated bearish outside days with small arrows and large arrows, the latter of which means the distance between the high and low was 100 points or more. In the bearish outside days, when the difference between the high and low was 100 points or more this year, intense selling soon followed. This is a risk that bears are watching.
In possibly better news, it has been six trading days since the bearish outside day surfaced without immediately triggering intense selling. But bulls are not yet out of the woods in terms of the implications of the Aug. 22 candle until new highs are carved out.
Perhaps the most important technical observation of all is that the SPX is trading within a chip shot of its all-time high. The direction of the 10-day buy-to-open put/call volume ratio on SPX components continues to favor the bulls, even though there was a slight uptick in this ratio just ahead of NVDA's earnings last week. This caution proved to be a little excessive as the broader market held its ground, even as NVDA pulled back after its report.
It's worth noting this ratio still has room to decline before we get to a measured level of optimism that historically puts the market at increased odds of a pullback. Plus, a risk to bears in the context of the SPX knocking on the door of all-time highs is that it remains a heavily shorted market -- especially after a 4% increase in total SPX component short interest in the last report.
As we move out of earnings season, companies with buyback programs could rev up the “buyback engine” and, at the very least, keep pullbacks tempered relative to the timeframe before earnings releases.
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CBOE Put/Call Modal Analysis vs S&P 500 Index
By: Nautilus Research | September 3, 2024
• CBOE Put/Call Modal Analysis.
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Improving Global Breadth
By: Nautilus Research | September 3, 2024
• Improving Global Breadth.
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Sentiment: Currently valued at 75.58, the Market Greed/Fear Index reflects a strong sentiment of greed among investors, indicating their willingness to embrace higher risks in the US stock market.
By: Isabelnet | September 3, 2024
• Sentiment
Currently valued at 75.58, the Market Greed/Fear Index reflects a strong sentiment of greed among investors, indicating their willingness to embrace higher risks in the US stock market.
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The S&P 500 is expected to face a period of weakness until the US elections, followed by a potential rally towards the end of the year
By: Isabelnet | September 3, 2024
• The S&P 500 is expected to face a period of weakness until the US elections, followed by a potential rally towards the end of the year.
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The largest companies in the S&P 500 by...
By: Charlie Bilello | September 1, 2024
• The largest companies in the S&P 500 by...
-Market Cap (Apple)
-Net Income (Apple)
-Revenue (Walmart)
-# of Employees (Walmart)
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$CRM Really struggling to reclaim that 200D SMA...
By: TrendSpider | September 2, 2024
• $CRM Really struggling to reclaim that 200D SMA...
Proceed with caution.
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Silver Tests Key Support, Eyes Potential Bullish Reversal
By: Bruce Powers | September 2, 2024
• Following a pullback to 28.33, silver tests its 20-Day MA for support, potentially setting up a bullish reversal towards a 32.05 target.
Silver dropped to a retracement low of 28.33 on Monday and thereby completed a 50% retracement of the most recent advance. Support was subsequently seen leading a bounce intraday. Nevertheless, the drop today took silver below the 20-Day MA (purple), and it may close near it today. At the time of this writing silver is trading around the 20-Day line, currently at 28.63.
The relationship to the 20-Day line may provide clues relative to changes in supply and demand for silver. A daily close above the 20-Day MA, currently at 28.63, would indicate stronger demand than a close below the line. It may be significant because it is a clue that the price of silver may continue to head in the direction indicated by the daily closing price.
20-Day MA Should Be Watched
Notice the recent sharp rally and breakout through both a lower trend channel line and the 20-Day MA. That advance peaked last week at 30.19 and was followed by the current pullback. Therefore, the 20-Day line is given added attention because silver traded below it for around 20 days. Today’s pullback is the first test of the line since the bull breakout of the 20-Day MA on August 15. Therefore, if it holds as support and leads to a bullish reversal, the developing uptrend can continue higher to challenge last week’s high.
Potential Breakout of Falling Channel
If today’s low is sustained it may end up as a higher swing low relative to the August 8 bottom at 26.47. That would make the low the C point of a rising ABCD pattern with an initial target at 32.05. The target provides a guide as to what might be possible as ABCD patterns have a habit of reaching a key pivot once there is symmetry between the price change in two sequential swings in the same direction.
Watch 27.89 For Lower Support
Regardless of the potential for a bullish reversal off today’s lows, silver may yet pullback further. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 27.89 along with top of a lower channel line point to the next likely support area if silver falls below the day’s low of 28.33. Strength indicated by the rally from the August low point increases the chance for a second enthusiastic advance once a retracement is complete.
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Natural Gas Nears Critical 50-Day MA Test Amid Rally
By: Bruce Powers | September 2, 2024
• As natural gas continues to rally, key resistance at the 50-Day MA looms, with a double bottom pattern hinting at further upside potential.
Natural gas continued to rally on Monday with a new trend high of 2.20. It is now very close to completing a test of resistance around the 50-Day MA, currently at 2.215. There is a chance that the moving average line may be exceeded, especially given today’s advance and the early successful test of support at the 20-day MA.
The 20-Day line was busted seven days ago and today will be the first day with a low above the 20-Day line. That is a sign of strength that needs further confirmation. Tuesday’s session may be more telling as both the United States and Canada are on holiday today and that takes liquidity out of the market.
Next Pivot, 50-Day Moving Average
Nonetheless, today’s price action looks like it may lead to the first touch of the 50-Day MA since July 2, the day natural gas fell below both the 50-Day MA and 200-Day MA on the same day. That is because they were crossing, the 50-Day line rising above the 200-Day. Note that the recent swing high, a key pivot, is also located at an intersection of the 50-Day MA crossing below the 200-Day MA. Moreover, the breakdown on July 2 also triggered a decline below a previous swing low that had significance of its own.
The same thing may be about to happen soon as natural gas looks poised to attempt to recapture the August high of 2.30. If it does, a breakout through the intersection of the 50-Day and 200-Day MAs will also occur. That would mirror what happened during the bearish reversal from the June 3.16 peak.
Double Bottom Pattern Forming
In addition, there is a double bottom bullish reversal pattern setting up in the daily chart of natural gas. A breakout of the pattern would also occur on a rise above the 2.30 swing high. Subsequently, a daily close above that level would confirm that breakout and put the price of natural gas back above both the 50-Day and 200-Day MAs. That would leave it in a strong position to eventually challenge potential resistance around the top trendline. Depending on when it is approached, there are two Fibonacci retracement levels for reference. The 61.8% retracement is at 2.87 and the 78.6% retracement at 2.89.
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Silver $SLV - Waves I-II (1)-(2) 1-2 (i)-(ii). Which if correct would be ready to unlleash W- (iii) of 3 of (3) of III...
By: Sahara | September 2, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Waves I-II (1)-(2) 1-2 (i)-(ii).
Which if correct would be ready to unlleash W- (iii) of 3 of (3) of III...
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When we filter $QQQ seasonality for election years only, then next two months look bleak:
By: TrendSpider | September 1, 2024
• Was August warning shots of what's to come?
When we filter $QQQ seasonality for election years only, then next two months look bleak:
September: 50% win rate, -4.75% average return
October: 17% win rate, -4.69% average return
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How does $NVDA usually perform in September during election years? 67% win rate, average return of +2.06%
By: TrendSpider | September 1, 2024
• How does $NVDA usually perform in September during election years?
67% win rate, average return of +2.06%
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Is Amazon $AMZN cheap here at 42 times earnings?
By: TrendSpider | September 1, 2024
• Is Amazon cheap here at 42 times earnings?
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Remember this $SQ insider buy from August 5th that we alerted a few weeks back? Already up +20% on his $25M position.
By: TrendSpider | September 1, 2024
• Remember this $SQ insider buy from August 5th that we alerted a few weeks back?
Already up +20% on his $25M position.
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$GOOG Just a S/R flip at the multi-year breakout zone until proven otherwise
By: TrendSpider | September 1, 2024
• $GOOG Just a S/R flip at the multi-year breakout zone until proven otherwise.
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$NVDA Where does the higher low form? (if at all)
By: TrendSpider | September 1, 2024
• $NVDA Where does the higher low form? (if at all)
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Your barometer for risk on / risk off sentiment in the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ
By: TrendSpider | September 2, 2024
• Your barometer for risk on / risk off sentiment in the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ
< 30% look for opportunity
> 80% proceed with caution
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 31, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 294.4k, up 3.2k.
Going into this week, gold went sideways at $2,540s-50s for six sessions. This continued this week before suffering a 1.3-percent tumble on Friday, losing 0.7 percent for the week to $2,528/ounce. This preceded last week’s spinning top.
Earlier, the metal posted a fresh record of $2,570 on the 20th. Before that, it went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. It is probable the yellow metal is headed for a breakout retest. Non-commercials do not seem much worried about a breach; they are net long gold futures the most since March 2020.
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Gold’s Defiant Summer
By: Adam Hamilton | August 31, 2024
Gold is finishing one of its most-defiant summers in memory. Gold rallied to new record highs in recent months despite odds stacked against it. Gold was extremely overbought heading into summer 2024, its primary drivers weren’t performing well or really favorable, and the AI stock bubble continued to distract investors. Yet gold defied all that to power higher on balance through June, July, and August, a bullish omen.
When thinking about my weekly web essays, the ideas come before the titles. I knew what I wanted to write about this week, but hadn’t figured out the right word. To concisely describe gold’s latest summer, I thought about elevated, outperforming, remarkable, record, and awesome, but nothing was quite right. Then it came to me as I was pondering long-weekend activities for my family in the Colorado mountains.
In addition to the usual hiking and exploring, whitewater rafting came to mind. The first time my kids did that was near Glenwood Springs on the Colorado River. While that town and surrounding mountains are fun, its name is unfortunate. As a silver-mining camp in the late 1800s, it was originally called “Defiance”! That’s far cooler, but was lost after the founder changed its name to remind his wife of her boring Iowa hometown.
Gold’s summer has truly been defiant, boldly resisting opposing forces. Market summers run June, July, and August proper. As of midweek, gold had rallied an excellent 7.7% summer-to-date with just a couple trading days left. Annualize that, and gold has been powering higher at a blistering 30%+ pace in recent months! This proved gold’s fifth-best summer performance in the modern era of the past quarter-century.
Normally gold mostly drifts sideways to lower in early summers before its autumn rally gets underway in July then accelerates in August. On average during gold’s 20 bull-market years since 2001, it rallied 2.6% through the entire market summer. But during summer 2024 gold tripled this seasonal average! That exceptional strength is evident in this chart updated from my latest gold-summer-doldrums essay.
My first one this summer, it was published in early June. This chart individually indexes each gold-bull summer to 100 as of May’s final close. Then all these summer indexes are averaged together to distill out summer seasonality. This year’s indexed action is rendered in dark blue, last year’s in light blue, previous years’ in yellow, and the pre-2024 average of all of them in red. Gold certainly outperformed this summer!
Normally gold meanders in a summer trading range of +/-5% from May’s final close. That was the case for much of summer 2024, until gold’s upside breakout in recent weeks. Gold poked its head above that resistance briefly in mid-July, surging to a single nominal record before pulling back considerably. That driving big 1.8% up day was defiant, as that morning saw a Fed-hawkish upside surprise in US retail sales.
But gold failed to hold that mid-summer breakout, and fell 4.2% over the next week or so. A few weeks later in early August, gold caught a strong 1.6% bid on festering higher levels of US weekly jobless claims. Then two trading days later it surged another 1.7% to its second summer-2024 nominal record on geopolitical news. Israeli intelligence warned that it believed Iran was preparing a major strike against Israel.
The US responded by ordering a carrier strike group steaming towards the Middle East to “accelerate its transit”, and said a guided-missile submarine was already in that theater. Gold would achieve four more nominal record closes in subsequent weeks, for six total in summer 2024 as of midweek. Those mostly came on mounting Fed-rate-cut odds, which were usually driven by weaker economic data or Fedspeak.
Gold’s primary short-term driver is speculators’ gold-futures trading. That has an outsized impact on gold prices due to the extreme leverage inherent in it. Each contract controls 100 ounces of gold, which at $2,500 are worth $250,000. Yet those traders are only required to keep $10,500 cash margins in their accounts for each contract traded. That enables maximum leverage of 23.8x today, and is often even higher!
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 31, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024.
WTI Crude Oil: Currently net long 216.4k, down 3.6k.
West Texas Intermediate crude began the week strong with a rise of 3.7 percent at Monday’s high, but sellers showed up just under the 200-day ($77.71), with the average once again attracting offers on Tuesday. In the end, the crude finished the week down 1.7 percent to $73.55/barrel.
Monday’s high $77.60 did not quite test the top end of a months-long range between $71-$72 and $81-$82. WTI just bounced off the bottom of the range in the prior week. Odds favor a test – again – of the support in the sessions ahead.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to August 23rd decreased 100,000 barrels per day from the prior week’s record output of 13.4 million b/d. Crude imports declined 92,000 b/d to 6.6 mb/d. As did stocks of crude and gasoline, which respectively fell 846,000 barrels and 2.2 million barrels to 425.2 million barrels and 218.4 million barrels. Distillate inventory, on the other hand, grew 275,000 barrels to 123.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization grew one percentage point to 93.3 percent.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 31, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 294.4k, up 3.2k.
Going into this week, gold went sideways at $2,540s-50s for six sessions. This continued this week before suffering a 1.3-percent tumble on Friday, losing 0.7 percent for the week to $2,528/ounce. This preceded last week’s spinning top.
Earlier, the metal posted a fresh record of $2,570 on the 20th. Before that, it went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. It is probable the yellow metal is headed for a breakout retest. Non-commercials do not seem much worried about a breach; they are net long gold futures the most since March 2020.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 31, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 294.4k, up 3.2k.
Going into this week, gold went sideways at $2,540s-50s for six sessions. This continued this week before suffering a 1.3-percent tumble on Friday, losing 0.7 percent for the week to $2,528/ounce. This preceded last week’s spinning top.
Earlier, the metal posted a fresh record of $2,570 on the 20th. Before that, it went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. It is probable the yellow metal is headed for a breakout retest. Non-commercials do not seem much worried about a breach; they are net long gold futures the most since March 2020.
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CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 31, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 81.9k, down 2.9k.
The week swung between weekly gains and losses, in the end favoring the bulls. The S&P 500 edged up 0.2 percent to 5648. At Wednesday’s low (5561), the large cap index was down as much as 1.3 percent. On the weekly, a dragonfly doji formed.
On the 16th last month (July), the index peaked at 5670, which is now merely 22 points away. A test is all but certain. The S&P 500 has essentially gone sideways at 5640s the last seven sessions, and a breakout looks imminent. More important is what follows once this resistance gets taken out and the index proceeds toward the July peak.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 21.4k, up 10.1k.
After three up weeks in a row post-August 5th trough, the Nasdaq 100 gave back 0.7 percent to 19575 this week. That said, the tech-heavy index was down as much as 2.5 percent at Wednesday’s low, so bulls deserve kudos for buying the weakness.
Nonetheless, tech is no longer leading. The sector was not giving out good vibes heading into this week’s July-quarter results from Nvidia (NVDA), which disappointed.
If there is any consolation in how the index traded this week, it is that the daily RSI just turned up at the median; the last time the metric hit 70s was last month when it was peaking, with the index recording 20691 on the 10th. Tech bulls might argue this means there is room for positive momentum to build, although the fact remains that the rally from earlier this month ran out of steam sooner than, let us say, it did for the S&P 500.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 15.3k, down 11.8k.
Small-caps joined their tech cousins in registering a down week. The Russell 2000 inched lower 0.05 percent to 2218. And, as was the case with tech, Wednesday’s low was bought, as the small cap index was down 1.7 percent for the week at that point.
In the event of a rally, what transpires at 2260s will be crucial. In the second half last month, there were several unsuccessful attempts at that price, including a run to 2300 on the 31st but only to end the session with a sharp reversal lower.
Earlier, the Russell 2000 broke out of 2100 on July 11th, reacting favorably to softer-than-expected CPI for June. This had been an important level for bulls and bears alike. After that, within merely 15 sessions of the 2100 breakout, the Russell 2000 added 200 points and retreated after ticking 2300 intraday.
The index has had trouble at 2100 going back to early March. To boot, 2144 represents a 61.8-percent Fibonacci retracement of the drop between the November 2021 peak (2459) and the June 2022 trough (1641); 2100 also represents a measured-move price target post-breakout at 1900 last December, as the index was trapped between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 18.9k, up 1.3k.
Dollar bulls have managed to defend horizontal support at 100-101, which goes back years. After 5 down weeks in succession – and seven out of eight – the US dollar index rallied one percent this week to 101.62. More gains probably lie ahead.
Previously, nine or 10 weeks ago, the bulls were denied at a falling trendline from last October when the index peaked at 107.05. Eight weeks ago, it fell out of a symmetrical triangle consisting of a rising trendline from last December when it bottomed at 100.32. Last week, it breached trendline support from July last year when it bottomed at 99.22.
The level to watch now is 103-104, which goes back to December 2016. The support was lost early this month.
VIX: Currently net short 30.5k, up 5.9k.
VIX is caught between the 50- and 200-day. In the last 12 sessions, the volatility index has tested but remained above the 200-day (14.39). Concurrently, it closed above the 50-day (16.40) in a couple of sessions but only to get pushed under right away.
This week, the daily RSI on Wednesday approached the median from underneath and retreated. Volatility lacks momentum. On August 5th, when VIX surged to north of 65, the metric hit mid- to high-80s; Friday, it was under 45.
If the volatility bears play their cards right, there is room for VIX to head lower – at least near term.
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'The estimated loss in the S&P 500 that would be needed for MarketCap/GVA to reach run-of-the-mill valuation norms historically associated with subsequent total returns averaging 10% annually is about -70%.'
By: Jesse Felder | August 30, 2024
• 'The estimated loss in the S&P 500 that would be needed for MarketCap/GVA to reach run-of-the-mill valuation norms historically associated with subsequent total returns averaging 10% annually is about -70%.' https://hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240830/
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Tesla $TSLA NOD Final: +2.7 Million shares
By: Theta Warrior | August 30, 2024
• $TSLA NOD Final: +2.7M shares.
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$AMZN Net Options Delta: +702K shares
By: Theta Warrior | August 30, 2024
• $AMZN Net Options Delta: +702K shares.
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Goldman Sachs $GS plans to cut more than 1,300 employees from its global workforce as part of an annual review process to cull the low performers
By: Evan | August 30, 2024
• Goldman Sachs $GS plans to cut more than 1,300 employees from its global workforce as part of an annual review process to cull the low performers
Goldman will likely cut between 3% -4% of its workforce which would affect between 1,300-1,800 people - WSJ
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Total Put/Call Ratio drops to 0.70, the 2nd lowest level since November 2021
By: Barchart | August 30, 2024
• Total Put/Call Ratio drops to 0.70, the 2nd lowest level since November 2021.
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Gold Poised for Pullback Before Potential Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | August 30, 2024
• Gold completes an inside week amid consolidation, facing a potential dip to key support levels before momentum may return for a bullish continuation.
This week is set to complete an inside week for gold. Friday was the third day in a row of lower highs and gold is on track to end the day in a weak short-term position, below yesterday’s low and it is set to close in the lower quarter of the day’s range. Further, it may close today’s session below yesterday’s low.
Low Volatility Prolongs Uncertainty
Given the lack of momentum as gold has been consolidating in a tight range for 10 days, it looks like it may dip again to test support around the top of a symmetrical triangle pattern. The most recent minor swing low of 2,471 along with the 20-Day MA at 2,474 can be watched along with the top line of the triangle (purple). If the top of the triangle fails to hold as support a test of the lower 50-Day MA may occur. It is currently at 2,421 and can be watched along with an internal uptrend line.
Waiting for Follow-though After Bull Breakout
Gold trigged a breakout of a symmetrical triangle into new record high two weeks ago. And it was confirmed by a daily close near the highs of the breakout day and at a new record high. Volatility has since diminished resulting in a 10-Day price range from 2,471 to 2,532. If it can’t get going soon there is an increasing likelihood that another pullback lower may come before momentum returns.
Inside Week Sets Up
The highest price for gold this week was 2,529 and it provides an initial price level to signal an upside breakout that could see a bullish continuation. An inside week represents consolidation on that time frame. Gold is set to complete the month in a bullish position, above the halfway point of the month’s trading range. Not as strong of a bullish indication as it could be but still bullish, nonetheless.
Bullish Above 2,532
A rally above the August high of 2,532 will signal a continuation of the bull trend. There is an initial upside target at 2,566, which comes from a long-term indicator. An extended target of a large rising ABCD pattern completes there. There could be signs of resistance once reached or gold could continue higher to complete a small ABCD pattern (purple) at 2,595 and possibly reach the initial target from the symmetrical triangle pattern at 2,604.
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