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$Silver - After topping at 33.39 it closed the week at 32.13. Friday's bearish reversal indicates that the 14 week cycle high is probably in...
By: CyclesFan | February 15, 2025
• $Silver - After topping at 33.39 it closed the week at 32.13. Friday's bearish reversal indicates that the 14 week cycle high is probably in. We should see a pullback to the 10 week MA or lower by the next 14 week cycle low that is due in the 1st week of March.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 15, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 34240. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 14 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 3 daysNonetheless, the market remains neutral on our system indicators yet the immediate indicator is positive right now.
Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 32660 and overhead resistance forming above at 33165. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 10th at 34240, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 16th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 34240 to 31650. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 34240 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 26763 and 35737. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 10th reaching 34240 has exceeded the previous high of 33330 made back during the week of December 9th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in February, this market has held above last month's low of 29270 reaching 31610.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
Silver $SLV - $32.91 Target Hit Came close to the 33.50 Target earlier too...
By: Sahara | February 14, 2025
• $SILVER $SLV - $32.91 Target Hit
Came close to the 33.50 Target earlier too...
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Silver $SLV - Held its Daily 12/MA (Mustard) Also holding its 8/MA (Ivory)...
By: Sahara | February 12, 2025
• $SILVER $SLV - Held its Daily 12/MA (Mustard)
Also holding its 8/MA (Ivory)...
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Silver Faces Key Resistance, Possible Pullback Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | February 10, 2025
• Silver struggles near $32.65 resistance, with recent pullbacks indicating potential for deeper corrections towards $31.18 before a bullish continuation.
Silver has been testing resistance around a $32.65 swing high for the past four days or so as it consolidated around the highs. The resistance zone is represented by an internal uptrend line, a prior swing high from early-December at $32.33, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near the high at $32.53. In other words, a likely solid resistance zone. On Monday, silver pulled back and generated a lower daily low and lower high, reflecting short-term weakness.
Since the pullback originates from a likely resistance zone, the price of silver may get weaker before attempting to go higher. It is also interesting to note that Friday’s price action had characteristics of a key reversal day. A new trend high was reached earlier in the session, but it was followed by sellers taking control and driving the price to the lows of the day by the end of the day.
Bull Breakout Failed to Hold
Moreover, notice the advance triggered a bull breakout above the trendline and then closed above the line for two days. That was a sign of strength. However, subsequent price action did not confirm strength and last Friday silver closed below the trendline. It looks ready to do the same today.
There is an increased chance that there has been a failed bullish breakout of the trendline and therefore that is supportive of a deeper pullback to test lower price levels, before the bull trend may be ready to continue. Further, during the advance a prior swing high at $32.33 was exceeded, which is a sign of strength. But that strength was not confirmed by a daily close above that interim swing high.
Bearish Decline Towards Support
A decline below Monday’s low of $31.71 is a sign of weakness and a likely precursor to lower prices. The first lower target is around the 50% retracement level at $31.18. Also, the 20-Week MA shows potential support at the same price area. Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is rising and close to converging with the 50% retracement level.
That relationship should be watched as it develops further since the closer those two price levels are to one another if approached, the strong the potential support. A test of support at the 20-Day line would be the first swing back since the line crossed above the 50-Day MA (orange) late last month.
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Precious Metals Sector update - Spectacular Advance Soon - here's why...
By: Clive Maund | February 9, 2025
The purpose of this Precious Metals sector update is to make two points clear in as short order as possible. The first is to explain why gold’s current powerful uptrend, that began less than a year ago, has much further to run. The second is to demonstrate that silver’s corresponding powerful uptrend has barely begun yet and that therefore silver and silver investments are outstandingly attractive now with almost everything to go for and also to point out that the related imminent powerful uptrend in Precious Metals stocks has not even started yet, but is about to.
With regards to the first point, consider the following long-term arithmetic gold chart going back to the start of this millenium, i.e. to the start of the year 2000. It looks like gold has risen quite a lot over the past year, doesn’t it?...
Now look at a chart for the same time period on a log scale – see the difference? Compared to the Great 2000’s bull market in proportional terms, i.e. in percentage terms, gold has hardly risen at all over the past year. This means that this major uptrend is still in its early stages and has much, much further to go, hardly surprising considering that under a year ago it broke out of a massive 12-year long consolidation pattern and it’s even less surprising when you also consider that with currencies collapsing due to Central Bank profligacy, we are headed in the direction of hyperinflation, which of course also means that the uptrend could accelerate dramatically to the upside.
Now to the second point. We see on gold’s 6-year chart that, having broken out of the massive 12-year Cup & Handle consolidation pattern under a year ago, gold is now forging ahead within a powerful uptrend and we also see that it found support at the lower rail of this channel at the end of last year which launched it into the current upleg.
But what about silver? While gold has been romping ahead over the past year, silver has been “dragging its feet” and has scarcely gotten above its 2020 and 2021 highs, as we can see on its latest 6-year chart below. However, this is not a cause for concern for silver investors because, as we can see on the chart, it has just poked its nose out of the top of a big bullish Bowl pattern that has built out since mid-2020 that promises to slingshot silver initially to resistance at its 2011 highs at $50 and in any case it is perfectly normal for gold to take the lead during the early stages of a sector advance. We should also be cognizant of the fact that the sideways pattern that has formed in silver over the past 8 months or so with it perched just above the boundary of the Bowl may constitute the “Handle” of a big Cup & Handle consolidation pattern that has formed since mid-2020.
As for Precious Metals stocks we know that they have been seriously underperforming gold for the past year, but again, we see on the 6-year chart for GDX that it is in the latest stages of a big Cup & Handle consolidation pattern that is remarkably similar to the one that has formed in silver over the same period, but in the case of GDX it has yet to break out of it. The importance of this cannot be overstated – it means that with regards to Precious Metals stocks there is everything to go for once GDX breaks out the top of this big Bowl pattern it can be expected to slingshot higher resulting in spectacular gains in many PM stocks, especially in large and mid-cap stock in the early stages in the early stages of the runup.
What about the argument and the fear that the stock market is going to crash and take down the PM sector with it? This is an argument that keeps replaying like one of those old 78 rpm records that is set to replay endlessly. It doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. Here’s why – roughly 90% of the stock market is now owned by the wealthiest 1 to 2% of the population who have the most political power and ability to exert influence. The system is therefore organized to protect their interests and the way it works is that the Fed creates new money in ever increasing amounts to backstop the increasingly fragile debt market to stop it imploding and in this manner protect the stock market. The new money eventually feeds through into higher inflation so that the middle and lower classes end up footing the bill for it all. This is why we are headed for hyperinflation, because perpetuation of the current system best serves the interests of the ruling class for as long as possible.
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$SILVER $SLV - Lets Get Physical
By: Sahara | February 9, 2025
• $SILVER $SLV - Weekend Special
Lets Get Physical
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Silver’s Cautious Climb
By: Ayesha Tariq | February 9, 2025
Silver is quite different.
Silver is usually driven by actual industrial demand, which accounts for about 55% of the consumption. The Silver Institute’s recent report suggests that there is an undersupply and is projected to continue in 2025, for the 5th consecutive year. This will likely mean that there is a floor when it comes to silver prices.
The Institute discusses demand for about 1.20 billion ounces, mostly driven by a 3% increase in industrial use. Supply is also forecasted to grow at about 3% delivering 1.05 billion ounces, still falling short of the demand.
“Concerns about President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff policies have fueled short covering and deliveries of silver (and other precious metals) into CME warehouses since late 2024. This, coupled with rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties, has underpinned a healthy recovery in silver prices since the start of 2025.” - Silver Institute
Silver prices have seen a gradual uptrend since late 2022, with current prices around $31 per ounce. Given the demand-supply imbalance, there is room to the upside, perhaps until $38/oz. This trend could mean that we start to see more mining investments, leading to increased supply, and potentially putting a cap on prices at around $40/oz.
While we’ve seen some support in the early parts of 2025, as the Silver Institute notes above, much of it has been driven by the policies directed towards Mexico, which remains the largest producer of silver on record.
Increased policy uncertainty is unlikely to support prices for too long, unlike with gold. If we look at the ratio of Silver prices to Gold prices, it’s quite clear that we had a run-up into the elections last year and since then we’ve seen a downward trend.
Tariffs and a stronger USD could actually weigh on demand and consequently prices.
So the bottom line is, while there is room to the upside in Silver prices, there is a cap on how far prices can go. Gold is likely to run further.
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$Silver - The rally continued this week but it closed the week off the high after reaching the 0.618 retracement of the October-December downtrend...
By: CyclesFan | February 8, 2025
• $Silver - The rally continued this week but it closed the week off the high after reaching the 0.618 retracement of the October-December downtrend. A daily close above 32.52 will lead to 33.55. The next 14-16 week cycle low is probably due in the 1st week of March.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures - Turning Back UP »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 8, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 32443 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. This price action here in February is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33215 intraday and is still trading above that high of 32920.
Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 32225 and overhead resistance forming above at 32920. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 3rd at 33215, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 16th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 33215 to 31610. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 33215 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 29047 and 33081. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 3rd reaching 33215 has exceeded the previous high of 31985 made back during the week of January 13th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in February, this market has held above last month's low of 29270 reaching 31610.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
Silver Continues to Pressure Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | February 7, 2025
• During the trading on Friday, we saw the silver market initially dip, only to turn around and show signs of strength yet again. Because of this, I think the market is likely to continue to be bullish.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially pulled back just a bit against the US dollar after the non-farm payroll announcement came out. But as you can see, we have turned around to show signs of life again. This suggests that we could break out to the upside given enough time, but I also recognize that there is a lot of noise all the way up to the $33 level.
The daily close on the chart for Friday will be very important to pay attention to, because it’s one thing to impulsively jump into an asset, but it’s a completely different set of circumstances to buy that asset and simply hang on to it through the weekend. So, I think this is something that we need to pay attention to.
I do think short-term pullbacks will continue to be looked at favorably for buying opportunities, with the 50-day EMA reaching towards the $31 level. In general, this is a market that’s been in an uptrend for quite some time and if we are in fact going to continue to see inflationary issues, things like silver, commodities and stuff could get a little bit of a bid. We’ll just have to wait and see.
A break above the $33 level could certainly open up the possibility of a much bigger leg higher to at least the $35 level, where we had peaked previously. The $31 level being violated to the downside could be a major shift in attitude, but right now it doesn’t look like a very likely outcome. I still believe that buyers are willing to come in and pick up cheap ounces of silver anytime they get the chance.
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Soon you won't find gold and silver in the jewelers or the bullion dealers
lol
Silver $SLV - Both Bullish Patterns In-Play $33.50 is a Confluence of Targets...
By: Sahara | February 4, 2025
• $SILVER $SLV - Both Bullish Patterns In-Play
$33.50 is a Confluence of Targets...
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Silver Bullish Hammer Signals Strength, Targets Higher Resistance Levels
By: Bruce Powers | February 3, 2025
• Silver reversed from key support near $30.69, holding the 20-Day MA. A breakout above $31.74 could confirm further gains toward Fibonacci resistance levels.
Despite weakness earlier in Monday’s session, silver is on track to close in a bullish position and possibly ending the day with bullish hammer candlestick pattern. It shows weakness to a three-day low earlier in the session before support was seen at the day’s low of 30.69. Since that low was relatively close to the 20-Day MA at 3.56, and given the subsequent bullish reaction following the low, a successful test of support around the 20-Day line was completed.
This could clear the way for a continuation of the bull trend that triggered a new bull breakout last week, above a downtrend line. Also, note that the 20-Day line crossed back above the 50-Day MA, which is also a sign of a strengthening trend.
Bull Hammer Shows Failed Selloff
If the day does end with a bullish hammer, a breakout above today’s high of 31.68 will be a sign of strength and it should be followed by an advance above last week’s high of 31.74. The high met resistance around the 50% retracement level at 31.81 and an uptrend line that previously indicated support for the rising trend. Therefore, a bullish breakout above last week’s high should quickly exceed the 50% level. And the trendline could continue to mark potential resistance since it is at an angle.
Next Higher Target is 32.53
Nonetheless, above the 50% retracement is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target at 32.53. That target can be watched along with a prior interim swing high at 32.33. Further up from there is the 78.6% retracement at 33.56, also a target. Notice that it coincides with the area around a top rising channel line. There were two failed attempts last year to break out above the line. The first was in May and the second was in October.
Long-term Weekly and Monthly Breakouts
Keep in mind that a breakout above 31.74 triggers a weekly breakout and therefore a bull trend continuation signal on a larger time frame than the daily chart. Moreover, it will also trigger a monthly breakout as the month of January has just completed. The trading range for January was inside the range from November, therefore, January completed an inside month.
There are two other indications on the weekly chart of interest. First, the recent swing low in late-December successfully tested support around the 50-Week MA. Further, silver reclaimed the 20-Week MA last week after it had been dynamic resistance for around six weeks.
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$Silver - Found support at the 12 month MA and had a bullish month but it has retraced only 50% of the October-December downtrend...
By: CyclesFan | February 1, 2025
• $Silver - Found support at the 12 month MA and had a bullish month but it has retraced only 50% of the October-December downtrend. In 2021 it retraced 78.6% of the initial decline before turning down again, so it has to move higher to convince me that it's headed to a new high.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 1, 2025
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 32265 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 29242. This price action here in February is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
Up to now, we still have only a 3 month reaction decline from the high established during October 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 4 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 31685.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 16th at 29145, which was down from the week of December 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past 6 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 12.95%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 29145 made 6 weeks .
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 33330 failed to exceed the previous high of 35070 made back during the week of October 21st. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 35070. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 30345, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 29270 reaching 29270.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
Silver $SLV - Bullish Mthly Candle...
By: Sahara | January 31, 2025
• $SILVER $SLV - Bullish Mthly Candle
Of course we have to await the close of business today, but so far. Note also it has moved up out of the Dn/Trend Channel which recall I wanted to see, & holding its 12/MA (Mustard)...
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Silver Continues to See Noisy Bullish Behavior
By: Christopher Lewis | January 31, 2025
• The silver market initially fell a bit in the early hours of Friday, but at this point in time is looking to go higher, as we have bounced back quite nicely by the time that New York came online for trading.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has pulled back during the trading session on Friday but found enough buyers to turn things around yet again. What’s interesting to me is that the previous uptrend line that had been resistance now has offered support. Somewhat interesting. At this point, the market looks like it could go higher and with the threat of tariffs coming out of the United States on Canada and Mexico, that does suggest that people are going to be protecting their portfolios, perhaps with precious metals.
Now, having said that, what’s interesting is that gold has broken out to a fresh new high, and silver is a bit of a lagger, but that does make sense due to the fact that silver is also an industrial metal. Quite frankly, I think you’ve got a situation where silver might try to play catch-up, and the first target will be the $32.35 level, an area that’s seen a lot of noise in the past.
If we do pull back from here, I would expect both the $31 level and the 50-day EMA to offer support from a technical analysis standpoint. In general, this is a market that I think remains bullish, but it probably lags gold as it just simply isn’t as much of a precious metals trade only at this point. It has more to do with industry and obviously tariffs could be a bit of a negative factor here, as the industrial use scenario could counterbalance the bullishness of the precious metals side of the equation.
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