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Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | September 30, 2023
Our proprietary cycle indicator is DOWN.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term sell signal.
GDX is on short term sell signal.
XGD.to is on short term sell signal.
GDXJ is on short term sell signal.
Analysis
Expect lower gold prices overall.
Our ratio is on a sell signal.
Trend is UP for USD.
Trend is DOWN for gold stocks.
Trend is DOWN for gold.
Gold stocks broke down this week.
In recent years, gold stocks have a tendency to bottom in the summer/fall time frame.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is down.
Trend is up for USD, and down for gold and gold stocks.
$$$ We shall wait for the next cycle bottom.
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Rally Time For Stocks & Gold?
By: Morris Hubbartt | September 29, 2023
Here are today's videos and charts. The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers. Double-click to enlarge the charts.
SGS Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
Super Force Signals (SFS) is being rebranded as Super Gold Signals (SGS at https://supergoldsignals.com), to reflect the growing global importance of gold.
At my SGS flagship newsletter, our focus is doing big picture trades on our winning core positions in gold, silver, commodities, and some Dow stocks too! At $229 a year the value is outstanding, and I have a special offer this week of just $199 for a full 14 months! Shoot me an email or click this link if you want the offer. Thanks!
SG60 Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
SGT Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
SGJ Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
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GDX’s Chronic Undervaluation
By: Adam Hamilton | September 29, 2023
The major gold stocks dominating their sector’s flagship GDX ETF have suffered chronic undervaluation over this past year. Traders simply haven’t been interested, starving gold stocks of the capital inflows necessary to normalize their prices with prevailing gold levels. But a momentous psychological catalyst is nearing that will force a violent mean reversion and overshoot in gold stocks, new nominal record highs in gold.
Financial markets are forever cyclical, perpetually oscillating between opposing extremes. Conditions constantly shift between bulls and bears, uplegs and corrections, overboughtness and oversoldness, herd greed and fear, and overvaluation and undervaluation. The longer any cyclical pendulum lingers at one end of its arc, the greater the odds a mean-reversion swing back is imminent. That’s the case in gold stocks.
Because gold-mining earnings amplify gold price trends, gold stocks are effectively leveraged plays on gold. So their price levels relative to gold’s are a great valuation proxy, revealing cycles when charted over time. The most-popular gold-stock benchmark today remains the GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF. Dividing its price by that of the mighty GLD SPDR Gold Shares gold ETF illuminates gold-stock valuations.
Mid-week GDX and GLD were slammed to $26.91 and $174.10, yielding a GDX/GLD Ratio of 0.155x. That’s on the lower side of recent years’ range, which hit an extreme 0.133x at its nadir during March 2020’s brutal pandemic-lockdown stock panic. Then the violent mean reversion and overshoot out of that was quick to catapult the GGR to a high of 0.241x in late July 2020. That gives some context for today’s valuations.
The major gold stocks are running about one-fifth up into their latest secular trading range relative to gold. While certainly not stock-panic-grade, these undervaluations have been chronic festering for this past year. The midpoint of that GGR range is 0.187x. From July 2022 to September 2023, GDX only traded above that level compared to GLD on 5 trading days out of 312! Gold stocks have been really out of favor.
From 2020 to 2022, this GDX/GLD Ratio averaged 0.195x through some major cyclical waves going both ways. Yet year-to-date in 2023, GDX’s closing prices have merely reached 0.171x GLD’s on average. So there’s no doubt gold-stock prices have lagged well behind gold’s recently. But this cyclical ebb can’t and won’t last, as the endless market waves soon force gold-stock prices to catch up with then surpass gold’s.
This chart superimposes the GGR and its key technicals over the raw GDX during the last several years or so. Gold-stock prices have really underperformed relative to gold in this span, carving the downtrend rendered here. But the cyclical pendulum has already started swinging back the other way, enjoying a mounting uptrend since the GGR plunged to deep secular lows in late September 2022. This ought to continue.
GDX’s major gold stocks have been losing ground relative to the metal they mine for years, as seen in this GGR downtrend. Gold-stock valuations have drifted lower deeper into undervalued territory as this sector’s popularity waned. It wasn’t just declining resistance and support lines defining this downtrend, but GGR’s 200-day moving average. These key technical lines distill out daily volatility to reveal trends.
This gold-stock valuation proxy’s 200dma peaked in early 2021, then relentlessly ground lower on balance into early 2023. But the cyclical tides subtly started shifting in March, when that 200dma slump bottomed. Then the GGR’s 200dma reversed decisively higher for the first time in years! That is a major technical reversal heralding a cyclical trend change. Gold-stock prices have finally started outperforming gold’s again.
And this mounting wave lifting gold-stock valuations relative to gold is likely to continue. After regaining ground for an entire year now, this GGR uptrend is well-established. Once that happens, these valuation mean reversions tend to run to completion. And that’s not merely a return to average, but usually a proportional overshoot challenging opposing extremes. And the one birthing this reversal was extraordinary
The major gold stocks were slaughtered in mid-2022, with GDX plummeting 46.5% in 5.3 months on radically-unprecedented events! With inflation raging out of control, the Federal Reserve executed its most-extreme rate-hike cycle ever. Starting from zero, in just 6.2 months the Fed catapulted its federal-funds rate an incredible 300 basis points higher! Resulting soaring yields launched the US dollar stratospheric...
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 30, 2023
NY Gold Futures closed today at 18661 and is trading up about 2.18% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. This price action here in October is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. On the other hand, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. On the other hand, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.
Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 19172.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 31st at 20109, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 26th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 12 weeks reaching a high during the week of September 18th at 19331. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a significant move of 5.414% in a reactionary type decline.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 19689 made 1 week ago.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of September 18th reaching 19689 failed to exceed the previous high of 19802 made back during the week of August 28th. That rally amounted to only three typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
After closing above last year's low of 16733 when it was an outside reversal to the downside yet it did close lower. This immediate year, the market did open higher, thus far, but this market has rallied exceeding last year's high. and remains below last year's high of 20788. This market is still above the normal trading yearly envelope where the top remains at 17906. The last Breakout Mode indicator took place in during 2003.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 20854 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 18107 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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GDX #Miners - At the 62/Fib Is that close enough for my Red-Box Target?...
By: Sahara | September 28, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - At the 62/Fib
Is that close enough for my Red-Box Target?...
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The Ord Oracle: GDX Update
By: Tim Ord | September 27, 2023
SPX Monitoring Purposes: Short SPX on 9/1/23 at 4515.77; cover short 9/5/23 at 4496.83 = gain .43%.
Gain since 12/20/22: 15.93%.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We updated this chart from last Thursday, which is the Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index/GDX ratio. Last Thursday's chart took this ratio back to mid-2016; the above chart goes back to 2009. The top window is the 28-period RSI, and the next window down is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Minders index/GDX ratio. A bottom is in for GDX when the RSI of this ratio trades below 30 and than closes above 30. The blue and red lines on the chart above are previous signals. There were 18 signals generated with two failures (noted with red lines), which works out to a 89% success rate. We could see a "back and forth" period, but the chart above has a 89% success rate.
Tim Ord,
Editor
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GDX #Miners - There ae a few Pot'l Spprt Levels (Dotted Black Lines)
By: Sahara | September 27, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - There ae a few Pot'l Spprt Levels (Dotted Black Lines).
Otherwise the 62/Fib and my Lwr Red 'Pennant' Target Box come into focus...
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Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) Stock Could Soon Move Lower
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | September 25, 2023
• AEM has just come within one standard deviation of two historically bearish trendlines
• The stock's technical setup as well as surrounding sentiment paint a bearish picture
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (NYSE:AEM) has been chopping higher since its recent mid-August five-month lows. However, the stock has just run into two historically bearish trendlines that could cut its comeback short.
According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, AEM came within one standard deviation of its 100-day moving average six times in the past three years, after which the stock was lower one month later 83% of time, averaging a 4.1% loss. Walt Disney stock's 100-day trendline has seen seven similar signals, and was lower after the ensuing month 71% of the time to average a 2.7% drop.
An unwinding of optimism amongst options traders and analysts cut create headwinds as well. Of the 14 analysts in coverage, 13 carry a "buy" or better rating, while AEM's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 93rd percentile of its annual range.
When speculating on AEM, now looks like a good time to weigh in with puts. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 29% ranks in the low 10th percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations at the moment.
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GDX #Miners - Failed to clear the Confluence of Uppr-Band 'Cup' Line & Dotted Green 50/DMA equivalent that I mentioned prior
By: Sahara | September 25, 2023
• $GDX #Miners - Failed to clear the Confluence of Uppr-Band 'Cup' Line & Dotted Green 50/DMA equivalent that I mentioned prior. And has now slipped the Bear 'Pennant' (Red-Band) which favours the Red Arrowed Targets, unless it holds the Fractal 'Broadening' Target...
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Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | September 23, 2023
Our proprietary cycle indicator is DOWN.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term buy signal.
GDX is on short term buy signal.
XGD.to is on short term buy signal.
GDXJ is on short term buy signal.
Analysis
Current data is unclear.
Our ratio is on a buy signal.
Trend is UP for USD.
Trend is UP for gold stocks.
Trend is DOWN for gold.
GDX has broken resistance and now testing support.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is down.
Trend is up for USD, up for gold stocks and down for gold.
COT data is not helpful at this point.
$$$ We are partially invested and waiting for the next cycle bottom.
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Gold, Miners Weather Fed
By: Adam Hamilton | September 22, 2023
Fed hawkishness has been the rankling thorn in gold’s side for 18 months now. Since the Fed started this monster rate-hike cycle, every material gold and gold-stock selloff has been driven by the threat of more rate hikes. Those boost the US dollar, triggering gold-futures selling. But the Fed’s hawkish spell over traders is waning. Gold and the miners weathered this week’s latest hawkish FOMC meeting pretty well.
The Federal Open Market Committee catapulted its federal-funds rate up an extreme 525 basis points off zero in just 16.3 months into late July! That blasted the FFR to a lofty 22.4-year secular high of 5.38%. And this scorching rate-hike cycle was even more violent internally, with over 4/5ths of it happening in just 9.0 months into mid-December! The Fed has never before hiked so big and fast from such low levels.
The resulting higher US yields ignited a parabolic moonshot in the US dollar. In just 6.0 months into last September, the benchmark US Dollar Index skyrocketed 16.7%! The leveraged gold-futures speculators who dominate gold’s short-term price action closely watch the dollar’s fortunes for their trading cues, and do the opposite. So gold plummeted 20.9% in 6.6 months on heavy and relentless gold-futures dumping!
The mean-reversion rebounds out of those extreme anomalies were fierce, with gold fully recovering in a powerful 26.3% upleg over the subsequent 7.2 months into early May. Since then gold has drifted lower in a stubborn pullback fueled by dollar bear-market rallies. My essay last week analyzed this whole Fed-dollar-gold dynamic in depth if you need to get up to speed. The latest FOMC meeting this week builds on that.
After eleven rate hikes since mid-March 2022 including four 75bp behemoths, the FOMC wasn’t expected to hike again Wednesday with futures-implied odds near zero. The FOMC statement itself released after that meeting was virtually unchanged from the prior one in late July. Traders were far more interested in top Fed officials’ federal-funds-rate projections, which are published quarterly after every-other FOMC meeting.
This latest Summary of Economic Projections proved very interesting and somewhat contradictory. In just one quarter since their last forecasts, these elite Fed guys more than doubled their 2023 US GDP-growth outlook to 2.1%. With the economy strong, their expected unemployment rate this year retreated from 4.1% to 3.8%. They even saw core PCE inflation excluding energy and food moderating from 3.9% to 3.7%!
With continuing disinflation forecast despite a stronger US economy, you’d think top Fed officials would soften their uber-hawkish stance. They could project fewer additional rate hikes, or not holding the FFR as high for as long. But they did neither, with the 2023-year-end FFR forecast staying at the prior dot plot’s 5.63%. The FOMC views the FFR as a 25-basis-point target range, so dots are the midpoint average.
That implied one more 25bp hike later this year, at either the early-November or mid-December FOMC meetings. Traders had long expected that, since the mid-June dot plot also showed a 5.63% FFR exiting 2023. Traders weren’t looking for more-hawkish dots, as the USDX slumped 0.4% that day leading into that latest SEP. Gold really outperformed, with nice 0.8% intraday gains to $1,947 before that FOMC decision.
But despite no rate hike and no change to year-end-2023 projected FFR levels, Fed officials still managed to pull a hawkish rabbit out of their hats. Their year-end-2024 FFR forecast surged 50bp from 4.63% in mid-June to 5.13% this week! So the previous 100bp of rate cuts implied next year were slashed in half to 50bp. I didn’t expect that to change at all, though consensus was for trimming one of those cuts to 75bp.
As far as dot-plot surprises go, that was fairly mild. Top Fed officials’ FFR projections have long been notorious for proving wrong, as the Fed chair himself often emphasizes in his post-FOMC-meeting press conferences. So depending on the tenor of major economic data like jobs, GDP, and inflation during the coming few months, the next dot plot in mid-December will likely change again. Projections are always in flux.
There are many examples of dots being far from subsequent reality. A recent one is the mid-March-2022 SEP accompanying the Fed’s maiden rate-hike of this cycle. Then top Fed officials expected to see the FFR leave 2022 and 2023 at 1.88% and 2.88%. Yet merely nine months later the federal-funds rate was actually running far higher at 4.38% leaving last year, and is again just 25bp away from 5.63% exiting 2023!
So the currency and gold-futures speculators who closely watch the dots should know better than to put too much stock in them. They’ll look different next quarter and continue to greatly diverge from the actual FFR trajectory like usual. Yet starting with Wednesday’s SEP, sizable US-dollar buying erupted fueling gold-futures selling. The USDX reversed sharply, staging a 0.7% intraday surge into a new rally closing high.
So gold dropped from $1,947 leading into the FOMC to a flat close of $1,931. That still wasn’t bad, much better than other gold plunges after other FOMC hawkish surprises in the past 18 months or so. Gold weathered Fed officials implying higher-for-longer with half the previously-projected rate cuts in 2024 well. And gold-stock traders didn’t freak out, with the leading GDX gold-stock ETF climbing 1.1% to $29.71 that day.
The USDX’s post-dots reversal extended its relentless gains since mid-July to 5.7%, which is gigantic for a major world currency! Yet gold continued to overcome the dollar as it only slumped 1.5% in that same span. Gold shows relative strength when falling less than the dollar surges during its material rallies. Often post-FOMC price trends aren’t apparent until the following day, after foreign traders have a chance to react.
Both gold and GDX were weaker Thursday morning as I penned this essay, dragged down by stock markets falling on higher-for-longer fears. But again those latest dots shouldn’t be taken too seriously. All it will take for top Fed officials to pencil in more rate cuts in 2024 is weaker-than-expected jobs reports or cooler-than-expected inflation ones. We should see some before mid-December, pushing the dots back lower.
No matter what the Fed did this week, gold wasn’t likely to plunge because speculators’ gold-futures positioning remained quite bearish. This chart is updated from my gold-shorting-spike-bullish analysis as September dawned. Total spec longs remained relatively-low while total spec shorts stayed relatively-high leading into this latest FOMC meeting, leaving way more room for gold-boosting buying than selling.
The weekly Commitments of Traders reports current to Tuesday closes aren’t released until late Friday afternoons. So the latest data before this essay was published was current to Tuesday the 12th, a week before the FOMC. Then total spec longs and shorts were running 282.4k and 137.6k contracts, leaving massive room to buy back futures. Those bearish collective bets were bullish for gold on mean-reversion buying.
The first month of the USDX’s recent big surge into mid-August shook loose huge gold-futures shorting. That left total spec shorts at their highest levels since early November 2022, early in this large 26.3% gold upleg’s life. Excessive shorts guarantee proportional near-future buying to cover and close those risky leveraged downside bets on gold. Spec shorts averaged 94.1k contracts from late March to early August.
To mean revert back down to those levels would require 43.5k contracts of short covering, the equivalent of 135.4 metric tons of gold. Had top Fed officials not changed their 2024 federal-funds-rate outlook this week, big gold-futures short covering likely would have ignited. That quickly becomes self-feeding, as the resulting surging gold prices pressure more shorts into buying offsetting contracts to close out their bets.
But since spec longs well outnumber spec shorts, they are proportionally more important for driving short-term gold trends. Over the past 52 CoT weeks, longs have run 2.4x shorts on average. Spec longs have a well-defined secular trading range, with lower support near last September’s 247.5k contracts that birthed this strong gold upleg. Upper resistance in recent years has run near 413.0k, implying buying exhaustion...
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | September 23, 2023
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 19, 2023.
Gold: Currently net long 135.2k, up 11.3k.
Gold bugs continued to defend the 200-day, with Thursday’s low of $1,933 kissing the average ($1,934). On Wednesday, the metal rallied as high as $1,969 – past the 50-day at $1,954 – but the average was lost in the very next session. It closed out the week at $1,946/ounce.
In essence, gold is stuck between these averages, with a downward bias toward must-save $1,920s.
Bulls had a tremendous opportunity in May this year to stage a major breakout, but gold headed lower as soon as $2,085 was ticked on the 4th. In the past, $2,089 was tagged in August 2020 – an all-time high – and $2,079 in March 2022. Concurrently, gold bears have been unable to convincingly reclaim $1,920s.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 23, 2023
NY Gold Futures closed today at 19456 and is trading up about 6.53% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. Immediately, this market has been rising for 2 months going into September reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. Distinctly, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. Distinctly, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.
Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 19506 and support forming below at 19335. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 31st at 20109, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 26th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 9 weeks reaching a high during the week of August 28th at 19401. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 3 weeks, which has been a reasonable move of 2.378% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 19006 as it has fallen back reaching only 2660 which still remains -86.0% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 19802 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 18839 and 20197.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of August 28th reaching 19802 failed to exceed the previous high of 20109 made back during the week of July 31st. That rally amounted to only four weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 19401. Additional support is to be found at 19142.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
After closing above last year's low of 16733 when it was an outside reversal to the downside yet it did close lower. This immediate year, the market did open higher, thus far, but this market has rallied exceeding last year's high. and remains below last year's high of 20788. This market is still above the normal trading yearly envelope where the top remains at 17906. The last Breakout Mode indicator took place in during 2003.
Critical support still underlies this market at 18708 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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gold is looking so good, best in years. very exciting times.
FYI i left several indicators off, aint no body but my business, so sorry. wont respond to the lame, grasshoppers, or market illiterate.
