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Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow: Mali Dispute Could Reshape Africa’s Mining Outlook
Gold Monthly Breakout Eyes Higher Prices
By: Bruce Powers | January 21, 2025
• Gold surged above $2,726, confirming a bullish reversal and setting the stage to challenge $2,790, with extended targets pointing toward $2,846 and beyond.
Gold strengthened on Tuesday as it broke out above the 2,726-swing high from December 12 and advanced to a high of 2,746 before stalling. The advance triggered a bullish trend reversal as the December lower swing high was exceeded. Also, gold is on track to end today’s session above that price, at the time of this writing.
If it does so, that will be a stronger close than a close below 2,726. In addition, gold looks likely to end the day strong, in the top third of the day’s price range. Either way, today’s bullish price action sets the stage for gold to challenge the record high of 2,790 that was hit at the end of October. In addition to a swing high breakout, the 78.6% retracement at 2,734 was also breached during today’s rally.
Heading Towards 2,772
The next higher target from chart analysis looks to be around 2,772. That is the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern (purple). At that price the two upswings in the pattern would match and generate a potential pivot. A pullback could follow or a breakout through that price zone if buyers remain in charge. Notice the acceleration in momentum as the angle of ascent for the near-term uptrend increases, along with today’s wide range green candle.
This reflects improving demand that may continue to improve. That could lead to an acceleration in the advance as market participants jump on board following the bullish reversal signal above a prior swing high.
Above Record High Points to 2,846
If gold can get above and stay above the record high of 2,790, it heads towards a target zone at 2,846, which is the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern beginning from the February 2024 swing low of 1,984. It is quickly followed by the 227.2% extended target at 2,874 for a rising ABCD pattern that began from September 2022 low. It is also worth watching the rising trendline connecting the August swing low. In junction with other indicators, it can help provide guidance if approached.
Monthly Bullish Reversal Triggered
Finally, today’s bull breakout triggered a monthly reversal as last month’s high of 2,726 was exceeded. December was an inside month. Since the longer time frame takes precedence, a bull trend continuation signal was generated today, which increases the chance of gold reaching new record highs.
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It’s a Buyer’s Market for Bullion
By: Clint Siegner | January 21, 2025
Most of the past five years in the retail bullion markets were a sellers’ market. Buyers faced hefty premiums and demand outstripped supply.
Over the past few months, that dynamic turned 180 degrees in the U.S. retail market.
A whole lot more people are inclined either to sell the metal that they have – or simply hold.
Ask premiums – the amount buyers pay in addition to the metal value for coins, rounds, and smaller bars – are at the lowest levels in years.
That is good news for buyers, but lower premiums aren’t the only reason that now could be a good time to buy.
The market is showing some tightness where it really matters in terms of metal prices. There aren’t enough COMEX deliverable bars at the moment, at least not inside the U.S. The potential for a short squeeze exists, driving spot prices higher.
Over the past week, the premium for “registered” bars in a COMEX vault has ranged from 50 cents to a dollar per ounce for silver. At the same time, premiums for deliverable gold bars made a big move higher, topping $40 per ounce.
So far, these premiums haven’t shown up in the retail physical market. They are primarily being paid by shorts who have to deliver actual metal in Comex deliverable bar form.
The difference between COMEX futures prices and the price of physical metal will eventually either push spot prices higher or futures prices lower as arbitrageurs play the spread.
Readers may remember the “Silver Squeeze” in 2021. It was a grassroots effort by retail investors to create a short squeeze in the futures markets and force prices higher.
While the effort was certainly successful in driving demand for retail bullion products, it did not drive futures higher. Thousand-ounce silver bars and kilo gold bars remained plentiful and the market price never really took off.
The current situation is different. The shortage in COMEX bar inventory available for delivery is having an impact behind the scenes and may soon burst into the public markets.
The trigger for the recent events is tariffs. President Trump is expected to levy tariffs on a variety of imports, including potentially precious metals. This threat has caused a global scramble to get gold and silver inside the United States before any tariffs take effect.
Vault inventories in London and elsewhere are not exactly plentiful. They’ve actually been declining for years.
A lot of the reported London inventory is allocated to gold and silver exchange traded fund (ETF) holdings. Some of what remains is held in “strong hands” – owned by investors who aren’t willing to sell at all, or who are holding out for much higher prices. It isn’t clear how much of a “free float” of bars is available for export.
There is also a supply deficit in silver. While mine output for gold has risen recently, silver production is expected to decline and remains 200 million ounces short of annual demand.
Producers have yet to respond to somewhat higher prices with more production. That means traders who need physical silver to cover a short position won’t be the only ones bidding for the available above-ground supply.
For anyone planning to buy physical gold or silver, now could be the best opportunity in years. Considering premiums by themselves, it definitely is.
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Gold $GLD - Continuing to hold above those Lesser/MA's...
By: Sahara | January 21, 2025
• $GOLD $GLD - Continuing to hold above those Lesser/MA's.
Tho not out of the woods just yet. As extending that Bear 'Pennant' shows it could still be active...
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Gold News: Safe-Haven Demand Pushes Prices Higher Amid Trade Uncertainty
By: James Hyerczyk | January 21, 2025
Key Points:
• The breakout above $2,726 suggests bullish momentum, with gold poised to test its all-time high of $2,790.
• Gold prices surge to $2,733, a 2-month high, fueled by a weak dollar and safe-haven demand amid trade policy uncertainty.
• Falling Treasury yields and a risk-off sentiment bolster gold, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.
• Trump’s tariff threats on Mexico, Canada, and China drive safe-haven buying as geopolitical tensions rise.
• Support levels at $2,693 and $2,645 could provide buying opportunities if gold retraces from current levels.
Gold Prices Hit 2-Month High as Dollar Weakens
Daily Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold prices advanced on Tuesday, reaching $2,733.06, their highest level since November 24, before trimming some gains later in the session. The rally saw gold surpass the December 12 peak of $2,726.30, which acted as a key resistance level. The breakout signals strong momentum, with room for prices to climb toward the all-time high of $2,790.17, last reached on October 31.
Traders are eyeing immediate support at $2,693.40, with further downside levels at $2,663.50, a significant 50% retracement level, and $2,645.78, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. Any pullback into these zones could provide buying opportunities.
At 12:04 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2723.29, up $15.39 or +0.57%.
Weaker Dollar Fuels Gold’s Strength
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.6% on Tuesday, trading near a two-week low. A weaker dollar made gold more attractive to foreign investors, as bullion becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Later in the day, the dollar regained some ground as President Donald Trump floated the possibility of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. While this prompted a temporary rebound in the greenback, gold’s safe-haven appeal remained intact, supported by lingering concerns over trade policy uncertainty.
Safe-Haven Demand Drives Gold Higher
Gold’s role as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty has been a driving factor in its recent performance. Trump’s comments about potential tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China heightened fears of global trade disruptions, prompting investors to shift capital into safe-haven assets like gold.
In addition, U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as markets absorbed the economic implications of Trump’s policy announcements. Investors showed risk-off sentiment following his signing of more than 40 executive orders, which has added to uncertainty surrounding his administration’s economic agenda.
Market Forecast for Gold Prices
Gold’s upward momentum and the breakout above $2,726.30 suggest a bullish outlook for the near term. If prices continue to rise, the market could test the all-time high of $2,790.17. However, resistance could emerge if the U.S. dollar strengthens further or if markets anticipate prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Traders should closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, including housing statistics and PMI releases, as well as any developments in Trump’s trade policies, which could provide additional catalysts for gold prices.
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Gold Market Drifts Higher in Holiday Trading
By: Christopher Lewis | January 20, 2025
• The gold market managed to drift a little higher in the shortened holiday session on Monday, as Martin Luther King Jr Day had the futures markets closed for about half of the session. At this point, the market will look like it will break out of consolidation.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold markets have been a little bit choppy in the early hours of Monday, but keep in mind, it’s also Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in the United States and therefore, you’ve got a situation where the liquidity in the futures market would have been limited not only by volume, but also by time, as it wasn’t open for the entire session. So, with that, you can only read so much into this. But it does look overall like the market’s trying to get above the $2,725 area, which if it does, it allows gold to continue going much higher.
Short-term pullbacks, albeit likely, should be thought of as potential buying opportunities as long as we can stay above the 50-day EMA. If we were to break down below there, then it could open up a move down to the $2,600 region, which has been support so far. There are plenty of reasons to think that gold goes higher, not the least of which is that we have massive amounts of debt around the world that is a major problem, but we also have plenty of geopolitical concerns as well.
I mean, those really haven’t gone anywhere. So, with that being said, it looks to me like a market that is trying to digest a lot of the gains from last year as it drifts sideways and overall, I do think that eventually it takes off to the upside. But the question is, how long does it need to work off the froth? The answer is, of course, you never really know. But there’s nothing on this chart that suggests that you should get short of this market anytime soon.
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"Those who have short positions in the New York market are in the process of getting squeezed, especially if they are having trouble getting their hands on physical metal to deliver into their short positions. Or get it into the right form."
That's the big shoe to drop.
There is not enough physical silver mined in a year to cover this short.
If they get called, citi bank could go insolvent. JP Morgan too.
$200oz silver is not out of the question in the short term. Next 18 months.
To throw into the mix, war will end under Trump, but nations will run to rebuild their war capacity and will take massive amounts of silver.
And don't forget Samsungs silver battery.
That alone can be a massive silver rush. If that cat gets out of the bag, I don't know how they can artificially continue to keep silver low for industry. If Elon makes a bid to buy Samsung, it's game on. This battery can be the wet dream EVs need. It's way more sling in development than the graphene battery.
We might see a day where we stop making fun of EV drivers.
I think this is why China has told its people to stop buying gold and load silver. That cursed them back in the day when all nations were loading gold. China took it up the butt hoarding silver. That and opium has had them sucking wind in the world stage untill now. Now that they own the US congress..
And I'd love to see all the paper gold called too. That's almost as bad.,
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 18, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 279.4k, up 24.5k.
Gold has rallied the last three weeks, with this week adding 1.2 percent to $2,749/ounce. This brings the metal to an important juncture, as $2,750s has seen a genuine bull-bear duel the past three months. Last October, gold did proceed to rally past this level and tag $2,802 – a record – on the 30th, but only to then soon lose momentum. By November 14, gold was down to $2,542, before rallying. A rising trendline from that low extends to $2,640s, which is the line in the sand should gold bugs fail to reclaim $2,750s and the yellow metal comes under pressure. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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$Gold - Still facing the resistance at 2726 but it could hit the weekly upper BB by the end of January...
By: CyclesFan | January 18, 2025
• $Gold - Still facing the resistance at 2726 but it could hit the weekly upper BB by the end of January. In any case I think it's unlikely to make a new ATH and once it turns down I expect it to decline into the next 14 week cycle low that is due in the 2nd half of February.
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Gold Continues to See a Barrier
By: Christopher Lewis | January 17, 2025
• The gold market has pulled back a bit in the early hours of Friday in order to confirm the top of the overall consolidation area that we have been in for a while. At this point in time, the market is likely to continue to find buyers on dips.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold has pulled back just a bit in the early hours of Friday as we are testing the top of a larger consolidation range. The $2,720 level is a significant barrier that we need to pay close attention to. If we can break above there, then the market is likely to go looking towards the $2,800 level again. However, I think we’re probably more likely to see a short term pullback and really, that’s not a bad thing. I think it gives you an opportunity to take advantage of cheap gold and buy the dip.
After all, we had been in a very bullish run for some time and therefore, the sideways action, I think, is likely to continue to have to work off some of this froth from what was a really big move during the year 2024.
The bottom of the range extends all the way down to at least the $2,600 level, if not a little bit lower than that. So, I think really, it’s almost impossible to short gold at this point, even if you knew it was going to fall for a couple of days. All things being equal, gold will have to deal with interest rates, but it also will have to deal with geopolitical issues around the world. So, I think there are a lot of things going on at the same time, and that’s part of why we are taking this break here. Nonetheless, when you look at the chart, it is most certainly in an upward trajectory, and therefore gold remains bullish longer term.
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Unusual Situation in Gold & Silver Market May Spark Big Price Moves
By: Money Metals Exchange | January 16, 2025
The monetary metals pulled back sharply yesterday but have entered Tuesday on stable footing. Silver is trading at $29.90 –and gold is $2,674.
The ongoing volatility is a reflection of uncertainty in the gold and silver markets globally, including fears of import tariffs from the incoming Trump administration.
If Trump slaps a tariff of, say, 10% on precious metals coming into the U.S., that would have a huge impact. 10% on silver would amount to $3 per ounce!
As a result of this worry, the price of gold and silver – as traded on the New York futures market – has risen sharply above the prices for the same metals seen simultaneously in other markets across the globe.
In silver, for example, the spread between London spot and New York futures has recently reached as high as $1 per ounce!
This spread has also created a big incentive for parties all over the world to get their gold and silver into the U.S. before any tariffs are imposed.
Traders are buying metal in London, simultaneously selling in the NY futures market (and pocketing a tidy profit), withdrawing the metal from London vaults, and transporting the metal to the U.S. to deliver onto the exchange to close out the futures position.
This dynamic is having the effect of draining London vaults of gold and silver at an unusually fast rate –and at some point, these lower levels of vaulted metal in London could create price dislocations in that major market too.
Those who have short positions in the New York market are in the process of getting squeezed, especially if they are having trouble getting their hands on physical metal to deliver into their short positions. Or get it into the right form.
This situation could lead to big price swings and even a major short squeeze event in gold and/or silver, so you can be confident we'll keep our customers updated at MoneyMetals.com.
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Reminds me of Trump taking on Biden's DOJ
This is what the World should expect now that the French have been kicked out of West Africa and America won't fight French wars either. It's a new dawn.
My prediction, gold production will come to a halt in thst region of the world. You won't be able do business with them.
Best pack your tools and get the hell out. Greenland will become the new West Africa.,
Barrick Gold suspends operations in Mali
The real run hasn’t even started. Silver always leads gold, gold follows, then miners finish.
The relative strength in Gold tells you just how much demand there amid headwinds that ordinarily cause bigger drawdowns
By: Markets & Mayhem | January 15, 2025
• The relative strength in gold tells you just how much demand there amid headwinds that ordinarily cause bigger drawdowns.
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