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The price of Gold in China just had its biggest drop in more than 3 years
By: Barchart | October 1, 2023
• The price of Gold in China just had its biggest drop in more than 3 years.
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Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | September 30, 2023
Our proprietary cycle indicator is DOWN.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term sell signal.
GDX is on short term sell signal.
XGD.to is on short term sell signal.
GDXJ is on short term sell signal.
Analysis
Expect lower gold prices overall.
Our ratio is on a sell signal.
Trend is UP for USD.
Trend is DOWN for gold stocks.
Trend is DOWN for gold.
Gold stocks broke down this week.
In recent years, gold stocks have a tendency to bottom in the summer/fall time frame.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is down.
Trend is up for USD, and down for gold and gold stocks.
$$$ We shall wait for the next cycle bottom.
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Rally Time For Stocks & Gold?
By: Morris Hubbartt | September 29, 2023
Here are today's videos and charts. The videos are viewable on mobile phones as well as computers. Double-click to enlarge the charts.
SGS Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
Super Force Signals (SFS) is being rebranded as Super Gold Signals (SGS at https://supergoldsignals.com), to reflect the growing global importance of gold.
At my SGS flagship newsletter, our focus is doing big picture trades on our winning core positions in gold, silver, commodities, and some Dow stocks too! At $229 a year the value is outstanding, and I have a special offer this week of just $199 for a full 14 months! Shoot me an email or click this link if you want the offer. Thanks!
SG60 Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
SGT Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
SGJ Key Charts, Signals, & Video Analysis
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 30, 2023
NY Gold Futures closed today at 18661 and is trading up about 2.18% for the year from last year's settlement of 18262. This price action here in October is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 1999 moving into a major high for 2020, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2022 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 16183. On the other hand, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 2020, which tends to warn that the 2020 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Notwithstanding, 2022 was, in fact, an outside reversal to the downside closing lower than the previous year. On the other hand, we have elected all four intermediate Yearly Bullish Reversals to date from the turning point of 2022 from this 2022 reaction low.
Curiously, the market has been only consolidating since that 2022 low and has been unable to exceed the high of that year while holding the low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 19172.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 31st at 20109, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 26th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 12 weeks reaching a high during the week of September 18th at 19331. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a significant move of 5.414% in a reactionary type decline.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 19689 made 1 week ago.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of September 18th reaching 19689 failed to exceed the previous high of 19802 made back during the week of August 28th. That rally amounted to only three typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
After closing above last year's low of 16733 when it was an outside reversal to the downside yet it did close lower. This immediate year, the market did open higher, thus far, but this market has rallied exceeding last year's high. and remains below last year's high of 20788. This market is still above the normal trading yearly envelope where the top remains at 17906. The last Breakout Mode indicator took place in during 2003.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 20854 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 18107 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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Bearish Momentum Engulfs Gold Markets Amid Volatile Swings
By: Bruce Powers | September 29, 2023
• Gold’s rollercoaster ride today, marked by a bullish surge followed by a sharp decline, hints at uncertainty for investors as it seeks support around 1,850 to 1,843.
Volatility spikes in gold as it triggers a bullish rally above yesterday’s high before quickly encountering resistance at 1,880. Selling pressure subsequently accelerated, dragging gold down to below its earlier trading range and triggering a bearish trend continuation as it fell below yesterday’s low of 1,858. Gold has seen only a minimal bounce since hitting the day’s low of 1,846, which is not a sign of strength. Further it is set to close weak, in the lower third of the day’s range.
Gold Reached Support Zone from 1,805 to 1,843
Today’s decline reached the next potential support zone, which is from around 1,850 to 1,843. We will be watching closely for signs of support within this range. It is derived from the 50% retracement, the completion of a measured move (red lines), and the target from an AB equals CD pattern where the CD leg is extended by the 161.8% Fibonacci ratio.
Downward Pressure Continues into the Close
Given the decisive decline today, a likely weak close, and signs of accelerating bearish momentum, the next lower target zone could be reached sooner rather than later. A larger and second measured move shows a target down at 1,803, which matches the swing low from last February. That begins a price zone the goes down to around 1,787 due to Fibonacci targets, along with prior monthly lows. The monthly low for February of this year is 1,809 and for March it is 1,805.
If a Rally Comes
Holders of gold are being flushed out with this week’s rapid decline. Today’s price action does not show that it is over. Nevertheless, a rally, when it comes may be sharp given the pickup in volatility. In this case, the prior swing low of 1,885 is a price area to watch. It was support and could now be resistance on the way back up. In addition, the 1,900 area was also a previous swing low support and could see resistance on the way. Further details will be looked at once there are signs that a bottom might be in. Although it doesn’t mark a bottom, the RSI is getting more extreme to the downside and has reached the lower levels seen in July 2022.
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Potential Death Cross (50D crossing below 200D moving average) Formation for Gold
By: Barchart | September 29, 2023
• Potential Death Cross (50D crossing below 200D moving average) Formation for Gold
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Gold’s Downswing Intensifies: Is the Precious Metal Nearing a Bottom?
By: Bruce Powers | September 28, 2023
• With the RSI hitting oversold territory and approaching extreme levels, gold may be nearing a potential bottom, but the next support zone at 1,850/1,843 remains crucial.
That didn’t take long. Gold continued its descent today, quickly reaching its next identified support zone starting at 1,866. It then kept falling, breaching the low of the range at 1,853. Support was subsequently seen at the day’s low of 1,858, leading to a bounce. Today’s low could be the low for the correction or gold may keep falling to the next potential support zone.
Relative Declines
At today’s low, gold was down by 4.6% from the top of the current downswing at 1,947. When looking at the downswings from the May swing high, there are swings that range from 2.7% to 7.2%. The current decline is the third largest indicating there may still be more downside to go.
Continued Weakness Targets 1,850
The next lower price zone to watch for support is at 1,850/1,843, and it includes the 50% retracement for the uptrend begun from the November 2022 lows. Also, that price zone completes the shorter measured move that is shown on the chart with red arrows. Around 1,850 is where the first downswing (1) matches the decline in the second (2). Certainly, given the strong downside momentum seen in the past few days, and the break below today’s price zone, the next lower level has a chance of being reached before the correction is complete.
RSI Falls Further than Prior Two Major Corrections
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) oscillator has reached oversold as it dipped below the 30 level. Notice that the RSI is now below the level reached in the two prior corrections (August, February/March). And it is approaching the 26.30 RSI reading that was reached at the trend bottom, hit a year ago. This means that gold looks to be getting closer to the bottom as it is approaching relatively extreme levels on the RSI.
Rally Above 1,880 Points to a Bounce
Nevertheless, today’s bottom could hold and lead to a bounce. In that case, a rally above today’s high of 1,880 shows strength and could see gold continue higher in the short term. The previous swing low of 1,885 would then be the first target and area for potential resistance. A daily close above that level will show strength, at least enough for gold to keep bouncing.
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Gold $GLD - Depending whether it can hold the Daily/Purple...
By: Sahara | September 28, 2023
• $GOLD $GLD - Depending whether it can hold the Daily/Purple...
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Gold Markets Stabilize
By: Christopher Lewis | September 28, 2023
• Gold markets stabilized during the trading session on Thursday, as we are waiting to see whether or not the gold markets will truly break down.
Gold Market Technical Analysis
The gold market certainly looked miserable at the moment, and it also is likely to be a situation where the rallies will continue to be sold into now that we are well below the 200-Day EMA, and of course the $1900 level. The market will continue to pay close attention to inflation in the United States and of course interest rates, so therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we could see this market continue to drop toward the $1800 level, and the size of the candlestick during the trading session on Wednesday certainly shows just how negative things are at the moment.
In order to start buying gold, you would need to see interest rates start to drop rather significantly, and of course the market take out the 200-Day EMA. Breaking above that opens up an even bigger move, but you can also see that there is a wedge on the chart that people can plainly see, and that of course could offer a bit of resistance above. Ultimately, this is a market that remains “fade on the rally”, at least until something changes from a longer-term macroeconomic standpoint. As things are currently looking, gold is going to suffer at the hands of the US government interest rates. However, there will come a time where buying gold will be a great value, and it could end up being a massive investment.
It’s also worth noting that we are starting to see the 50-Day EMA slope lower, which means that it could cross the 200-Day EMA, kicking off the so-called “death cross.” At this point, it seems like the real safety play is in the bond market, because you can get well over 5% for short duration bonds instead of taking any risk at all, and as long as that’s the case there’s really not much of a point in chasing speculative assets. However, sooner or later the safety aspect of gold will come back into favor, so I think that even if we do sell off at this point, it’s more of a swing trade than anything else. I do not think that we are heading into a cyclically negative market.
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Gold’s Sharp Decline Triggers Bearish Signal, Eyes Lower Support Zones
By: Bruce Powers | September 27, 2023
• Gold is experiencing a rapid decline, breaching the August 21 swing low and triggering a new bearish signal.
Gold accelerates its decline, falling sharply and breaking below the August 21 swing low thereby triggering a new bearish signal. It is set to close below that low and looks to be heading towards the next lower support zone. Selling pressure continues to dominate at the time of this writing as gold continues to trade near the lows of the day. It is currently down 1.4% for the day, which looks like the largest percentage decline since at least early June and was down as much as 1.6% at today’s low of 1.872.
Monthly Bearish Signal Triggers
Today’s selloff also triggered a bearish signal on the monthly chart as gold fell below August’s low of 1,885. A break of the monthly level increases the chance for gold to reach lower potential support levels before bottoming and completing the current correction.
Fibonacci Confluence Marks Next Support Zone
The next lower price zone of interest is identified from Fibonacci confluence, where several price levels congregate from different measures. It runs from around 1,866 to 1,863 and includes the completion of a falling ABCD pattern extended by the 161.8% Fibonacci ratio at the low end of the range. If this range is exceeded to the downside, gold is likely falling to the next lower support zone as shown on the chart.
Measured Moves Confirm Price Zones
There are two measured moves marked on the chart. The shorter move is in red and the larger in purple. A range from 1,850 to 1,849 is the next lower price zone where support might be seen. The shorter measured move, and therefore more likely to be reached, completes in this next lower price zone. At 1,850 symmetry is represented between the two bear moves as the current decline, measured by the falling red line (2), matches the drop in the first move (1). Nevertheless, potential support zones just tell us to be on the lookout for a bullish reversal setup that may begin a rally.
Today’s Lows Sitting at Trendline Support
We will have to watch how price behaves once it reaches a price zone, and always be prepared for the unexpected. For example, Today’s low has stalled at the bottom trendline that starts from the June 29 swing low. It represents potential support as well. Although there are no signs of a reversal that could change quickly and lead to a bounce.
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$GLD Shorter dated opening sweepers in to the 10/06 $176 Calls ~ over $600K premium/9.6K contracts
By: FLOWrensics | September 27, 2023
• $GLD Shorter dated opening sweepers in to the 10/06 $176 CALLS ~ over $600K premium/9.6K contracts.
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Keep Your Eyes On Gold Prices Heading Into October
By: Phil Carr | September 27, 2023
• After an explosive start to September, Gold prices have finally pulled back on routine end of quarter profit-taking as traders square up their positions – ready to capitalize on the precious metals next big move.
Navigating the Gold Rush: Why the Rally Isn’t Over Yet Amidst Economic Uncertainty
These big market moves have presented savvy traders with a series of highly lucrative opportunities to profit from the recent macro-driven rally as well as the huge price reversal that has subsequently followed.
Is the rally over and has all the money been made?
Not by a long shot!
Right now, Gold prices are spending very little time below the key psychological level of $1900 an ounce, which ultimately suggests that there’s still plenty of upside ahead.
Once you step back and take a look at the bigger macro picture that is currently unfolding, you’ll see the stars are aligning for gold.
Less than four days before the United States government faces a potential shutdown – U.S national debt has surpassed an historic milestone of $33 trillion for the first time ever.
Put another way, that’s $14.3 billion being added to U.S debt per day. Add on another $3 billion per day of interest payments and that’s well over $17 billion per day.
Under normal circumstances, this might not be that big a deal, but these are not normal circumstances.
According to economists, the timing of the government shutdown couldn’t be worse and may lead to a sequence of catastrophic consequences for an economy already faced with surging gasoline prices, autoworker strikes and re-accelerating inflation – with some saying it could even increase the possibility of another “black swan event”.
Precious Metals Shine Bright Amid U.S. Credit Rating Concerns and Market Volatility
On Monday, Moody’s rating agency warned that the U.S will be slapped with a “negative credit rating” if a government shutdown were to occur.
Back in August, Moody’s rival Fitch Ratings downgrading the U.S credit rating from AAA to AA+ due to successive government standoffs over the nation’s debt ceiling. A move which sent precious metal prices skyrocketed to multi-month highs – with many notching up spectacular double digit gains – literally in a matter of days.
Right now we have crisis on top of crisis, which as traders know – translates to opportunity on top of opportunity. While precious metals certainly don’t need a crisis to move higher, they definitely love a crisis!
Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. The case for precious metals in a well-diversified portfolio has never been more obvious than it is right now. Any substantial pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities because prices won’t stay low for long!
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Gold $GLD - If it fails to maintain above the Daily Purple/MA then that Red Arrowed Target comes into focus...
By: Sahara | September 27, 2023
• $GOLD $GLD - If it fails to maintain above the Daily Purple/MA then that Red Arrowed Target comes into focus...
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Gold $GLD - Still under that 2-Day 'Shooting Star' Kosh
By: Sahara | September 27, 2023
• $GOLD $GLD - Still under that 2-Day 'Shooting Star' Kosh.
And now has slipped that Lwr-Band. Meaning the Aug-Low is under pressure. If that fails then it will cascade to the Dotted-Grey & Pink/MA's at the 50/Fib...
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Gold Markets Break Down Significantly
By: Christopher Lewis | September 27, 2023
• The gold market broke down significantly during the trading session on Wednesday, as it looks like we are getting ready to take a serious plunge.
Gold Market Technical Analysis
Gold markets fell significantly during the trading session again on Wednesday, as the US dollar continues to work against almost everything. The market is well below the 200-Day EMA, which of course is a large indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to for trend direction. The market has broken out of a triangle as well, and it does suggest that we are getting ready to test the $1900 level. The $1900 level underneath is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore should attract a lot of attention. If we were to break down below there, then the market is likely to open up even more selling to go down toward the $1800 level. The $1800 level obviously would attract a lot of attention as well.
Short-term rallies at this point in time probably get sold into, with the 200-Day EMA offering a bit of resistance at this point. Furthermore, I think that the interest rate situation coming out of the Federal Reserve will continue to push gold lower, and bond traders are selling bonds off drastically, making rates rise even faster than the Fed wants. In other words, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of downward pressure, and I do think that every time we rally, you have to look at it with a certain amount of suspicion at this point. You can even make an argument for a large “M pattern”, which is also sometimes called a double top above.
While I do recognize that gold could bounce from time to time, I don’t necessarily think that we are going to see a complete change in trend any time soon, at least not until the bond market calms down. I do expect a bit of a fight at the $1900 level, which is an area where we have seen a bounce from previously, and of course there will be a certain number of options barriers in that area as options traders will have something to say. The last couple of days have been pretty brutal, and it looks like we are accelerating to the downside.
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Gold Markets Test Major Moving Average
By: Christopher Lewis | September 26, 2023
• The gold markets drifted a little bit lower during the trading session on Tuesday early, but it looks as if the 200-Day EMA continues to be a major influence.
Gold Market Technical Analysis
Gold markets fell a bit during the trading session on Tuesday to reach toward the 200-Day EMA. The 200-Day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that there would be support here. Furthermore, you can also make an argument for a trendline sitting just below, so it would not be surprising at all to see gold rally a bit from here. However, there are a lot of crosscurrents right now that gold has to deal with, not the least of which of course are going to be bond yields in America which continue to rise.
This is not the best of setups for gold, but there is the possibility of people starting to look to gold for safety. If that’s the case, then we can see this market take off. The market continues to see a lot of consolidation and massive pressures. The 2 trendlines that I have shown on the chart suggest that we are squeezing in order to go in one direction or the other. This somewhat symmetrical triangle suggests that we are going to continue to see a lot of indecision, but if we turn around and break to the upside, clearing the $1965 level, then it would make a certain amount of sense that gold would go to the $2000 level.
Underneath, the $1900 level continues to offer support in an area that has been important more than once. If we break down below the $1900 level, then it’s likely that the market could go down to the $1800 level. The $1800 level is a major support level on the longer-term charts, and that of course is an area that a lot of people would pay close attention to as well. Anything below there would open up the trapdoor of selling that could send gold rushing to the downside. On the other side, if the market were to break above the $2000 level, then the market could go much higher at this point, and therefore it could really start to take off, but we need to clear the $2000 level for a bit of a “formal trade”, at least not without bond markets and yield suddenly turning around drastically.
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Gold Trust $IAU *SIZE* 18 Million Shares at $36.32 #darkpool activity ~ 355% of 30D Avg Vol
By: FLOWrensics | September 25, 2023
• $IAU SIZE #darkpool activity
18 mil shares at $36.32 ~ 355% of 30D Avg Vol
$GLD
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Gold $GLD - That 'Shooting Star' Candle at the Uppr-Band & Twin Grey/MA's I showed prior is still in control
By: Sahara | September 25, 2023
• $GOLD $GLD - That 'Shooting Star' Candle at the Uppr-Band & Twin Grey/MA's I showed prior is still in control.
Now p to the Lwr Spprt-Band to show its resilience...
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