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Cocoa declined 23.1% this week, its biggest weekly decline in history
By: Barchart | May 3, 2024
• Cocoa declined 23.1% this week, its biggest weekly decline in history.
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Check out $AMD from the wedge scanner, found support off the 200 SMA with bullish RSI divergence building.
By: TrendSpider | May 4, 2024
• Check out $AMD from the wedge scanner, found support off the 200 SMA with bullish RSI divergence building.
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$CVS Two insiders at CVS bought a combined $554K in shares yesterday after the -20% haircut from earnings.
By: TrendSpider | May 4, 2024
• $CVS BLOOD BUYERS SPOTTED.
Two insiders at CVS bought a combined $554K in shares yesterday after the -20% haircut from earnings.
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Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's Buys 318,776 Shares of Roblox Corp (RBLX)
By: Ark Invest Daily | May 3, 2024
• Cathie Wood and Ark Invest's trade activity from today 5/3.
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Is this a Dead-Cat Bounce or a Bounce with Legs?
By: Arthur Hill | May 3, 2024
• A key short-term breadth indicator became oversold in mid April.
• Stocks are bouncing after this oversold reading.
• Breadth, however, has yet to show a serious expansion in participation.
Stocks fell sharply into late April and then rebounded over the last two weeks. SPY fell 5.34% from March 28th to April 19th and then rebounded with a 3.26% gain the last two weeks. Does this bounce have legs? Chartists can separate serious bounces from dead-cat bounces using breadth. Today's example will use the S&P 500 and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks their 20 day SMAs.
There are two steps. First, the indicator needs to become oversold (setup). Second, we need to see a significant increase (breakout) in upside participation (signal). An oversold reading signals a significant decline and provides the setup for a bounce. Aggressive traders can trade the oversold condition. A subsequent move above the breakout level signals adequate participation to sustain the advance. Now comes the subjective part. We must choose our oversold and breakout levels. I am choosing 10 and 70 percent for SPX %Above 20-day SMA.
The green shading on the chart above shows when SPX %Above 20-day became oversold and the green arrow-lines mark the subsequent move above 70%. There were setup-signals in March-April and again in October-November. Both led to significant bounces. Notice the red shading where the indicator failed to clear 70% in mid October. This was a feeble bounce and SPY moved to a new low in late October. SPX %Above 20-day then surged above 70% in early November for a signal. Recently, the indicator became oversold here in mid April for a setup and moved back above 50% this week. An oversold bounce is indeed underway, but I need to see a move above 70% to show a participation breakout.
We are monitoring the rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at TrendInvestorPro (ChartTrader). Our 10 indicator composite indicator became oversold in mid April, but we have yet to see the required breadth thrust to signal a strong increase in participation.
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 4, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024.
WTI Crude Oil: Currently net long 259.7k, down 18.8k.
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped in all sessions this week, down 6.9 percent for the week to $78.11/barrel. This was the third down week in four. The crude rallied from $67.71 last December to $87.67 on April 12th before coming under pressure.
This week, both the 50- and 200-day were breached. WTI concurrently fell back into a well-established range between $71-$72 and $81-$82 that persisted for 19 months before the upper end gave way five weeks ago. Even more important, it ended the week right on a rising trendline from last December’s low. A likely breach can eventually open the door toward the lower end of the range in question.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to April 26th was unchanged for eight consecutive weeks at 13.1 million barrels per day; 10 weeks ago, output was at a record 13.3 mb/d. Crude imports increased 275,000 b/d to 6.8 mb/d. As did crude and gasoline inventory, which respectively rose 7.3 million barrels and 344,000 barrels to 460.9 million barrels and 227.1 million barrels. Distillate stocks, however, dropped 732,000 barrels to 115.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization declined one percentage point to 87.5 percent.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 4, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 204.2k, up 1.3k.
Bids showed up this week well before testing horizontal support at $2,240s, which is where the 50-day now lies. Gold dropped 1.6 percent this week to $2,309/ounce, with Friday’s low tagging $2,285. This was the second weekly decline in a row.
The metal has been unwinding the overbought condition it is in since bottoming at $1,824 last October and at $1,996 as recently as February 14th. On April 12th, the metal printed a new intraday high of $2,449 but only to then reverse hard to close the session at $2,361.
The weekly remains overbought. At some point, gold bugs will be forced to defend breakout retest at $2,080s, which the yellow metal broke out of in early March. Right here and now, they have an opportunity to put their foot down. Nearest resistance lies at $2,350s.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 4, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 204.2k, up 1.3k.
Bids showed up this week well before testing horizontal support at $2,240s, which is where the 50-day now lies. Gold dropped 1.6 percent this week to $2,309/ounce, with Friday’s low tagging $2,285. This was the second weekly decline in a row.
The metal has been unwinding the overbought condition it is in since bottoming at $1,824 last October and at $1,996 as recently as February 14th. On April 12th, the metal printed a new intraday high of $2,449 but only to then reverse hard to close the session at $2,361.
The weekly remains overbought. At some point, gold bugs will be forced to defend breakout retest at $2,080s, which the yellow metal broke out of in early March. Right here and now, they have an opportunity to put their foot down. Nearest resistance lies at $2,350s.
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CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 4, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net long 43.1k, down 24.5k.
Equity bulls should be very happy with how things turned out this week. The S&P 500 rallied 0.6 percent but at Thursday’s low of 5011 was down 1.7 percent for the week. That low was bought, with the bulls gapping up the index (5128) on Friday to close out the week at the 50-day (5130). Earlier on Monday, their advance was stopped at that average. In the likely event the average gets taken out next week, the next layer of resistance lies at 5170s.
The large cap index peaked at 5265 on March 28th and the subsequent selling stopped at 4954 on April 19th.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 2.8k, down 3.4k.
Tech bulls got help from both the FOMC and earnings this week (more on this here). On Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell shot down the idea of the possibility of a rate hike (more on this here). Then, March-quarter results from both Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) pleased investors. The rally in the last two sessions culminated in a one-percent gain for the week, which at one point was down 2.4 percent.
When it was all said and done, the Nasdaq 100 (17891) finished just under the 50-day (17927). The tech-heavy index peaked at 18465 on March 21st, failing to sustainably break out of 18300s for seven weeks before rolling over. Before this resistance gets tested, tech bulls will first have to clear 18100, which represents trendline resistance from that high.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 40.3k, up 4.2k.
The Russell 2000 rallied 1.7 percent for the week, but small-cap bulls are probably not happy with how Friday fared; the session gapped up to add 1.9 percent intraday but only to reverse to end up one percent to 2036 – just under the 50-day at 2039.
On a closing basis, support at 2000 was breached both Tuesday and Wednesday, touching 1968 intraday Wednesday. At the same time, the small cap index retreated well before reaching 2100 resistance, ticking 2055 on Friday.
The index remains rangebound.
US Dollar Index: Currently net short 35, down 178.
On Wednesday, the US dollar index rallied as high as 106.38 but only to retreat. By Friday, it was down 0.8 percent for the week to 104.92. This was the fourth week in a row the index stalled just north of 106.
Earlier, the index bottomed at 100.32 last December, followed by a takeout three weeks ago of 103-104, which goes back to December 2016.
A crucial test lies ahead. A rising trendline from the December low draws to 104. It is unlikely this support is lost right away. Even on Friday, the intraday low of 104.41 – barely above the 50-day at 104.39 – was bought. That said, the weekly remains way overbought and it is just a matter of time before this trendline is compromised.
VIX: Currently net short 22.4k, up 4.4k.
The last time VIX’s weekly RSI rallied above 70 was March 2020; since then, the momentum metric has struggled to rally above 63. This was also true this time, when it turned back down three weeks ago; this was when the volatility index tagged 21.36 and retreated. VIX fell in the subsequent two weeks, with this week’s close of 13.49 comfortably breaching the 50- and 200-day.
VIX is oversold on the daily, and this could very well be a make-or-break moment for volatility bulls. The index closed the week right on a rising trendline from last December when it ticked 11.81 and rallied. This is a must-save.
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NY Crude Oil Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2024
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7811 and is trading up about 9.01% for the year from last year's settlement of 7165. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 4 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 7796 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 8070.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 8095.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 8767, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 8070. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 3070 made 1197 weeks. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7960 made back during the week of November 27th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of October 16th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 6771 made the week of December 11th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 20 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in September 2023 at 9503. After a four month rally from the previous low of 8346, it made last high in September. Since this last high, the market has corrected for four months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in May, this market has held above last month's low of 8070 reaching 8070.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 9503 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September 2023. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 12368 back during June 2022. Critical support still underlies this market at 6700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 26690 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into May reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 27090 and support forming below at 26515. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 29905, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 26715. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29905 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 19758 and 31122. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 25975 made back during the week of March 18th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 21975 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 22030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23086 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23380 and support forming below at 22962. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 17100 and 27120. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of December 25th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23086 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been rising for 6 months going into May suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23380 and support forming below at 22962. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 17100 and 27120. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of April 8th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of December 25th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 20030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2024
S&P 500 Cash Index opened above the previous high and closed above it as well warning of a bullish posture right now. It closed today at 512779 and is trading up about 7.50% for the year from last year's settlement of 476983. This price action here in May is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 513877 and support forming below at 512349. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 25th at 526485, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of April 15th, which has been a move of 3.745%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of March 25th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 479330 made back during the week of December 25th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of October 16th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 410378 made the week of October 23rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 17 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of March at 495356. The fact that the market for April close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. So far here in May this market has held above last month's low reaching 501105.
Critical support still underlies this market at 438504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2024
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 1615465 and overhead resistance forming above at 1625141. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 18th at 1653886, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of April 15th, which has been a move of 6.450%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of March 18th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 1515007 made back during the week of December 25th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of October 9th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 1254386 made the week of October 23rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 1604656. Additional support is to be found at 1586263. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 17 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of March at 1522278. The fact that the market for April close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. So far here in May this market has held above last month's low reaching 1555764.
Critical support still underlies this market at 1405840 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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$AMD big bounce off the $140 confluence area this week
By: TrendSpider | May 3, 2024
• $AMD big bounce off the $140 confluence area this week.
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$GLD Price is nearing the apex of a tight flag setup on descending volume + the TTM Squeeze has begun
By: TrendSpider | May 3, 2024
• Will this year's Gold Rush continue? $GLD
Price is nearing the apex of a tight flag setup on descending volume + the TTM Squeeze has begun.
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Gold’s Pullback and Miners
By: Adam Hamilton | May 3, 2024
After blasting higher in a remarkable breakout surge, gold is pulling back. Such mid-upleg selloffs are normal and healthy, rebalancing sentiment to maximize uplegs’ longevity. Gold’s pullback is naturally weighing on gold stocks, fueling some bearishness. But since they didn’t soar to extremely-overbought levels like gold, their downside leverage should prove modest. The gold miners could just consolidate high.
This is definitely atypical, as normally gold stocks amplify their metal. The leading GDX gold-stock ETF dominated by major gold miners tends to leverage material gold moves by 2x to 3x. During gold’s previous upleg from late September 2022 to early May 2023, it powered 26.3% higher. GDX’s parallel upleg in that span ran 63.9%, making for solid 2.4x upside leverage. This fundamental relationship holds in selloffs too.
Before today’s mighty breakout upleg was born, gold corrected 11.3% into early October 2023. GDX dutifully sold off in sympathy, plunging 27.7% in that span for typical 2.5x downside leverage. Examples of this are legion, ultimately driven by gold-mining earnings amplifying gold price trends. Traders expect the same during gold’s current pullback, as this relationship is thought to be ironclad. But today is rather unique.
A few weeks ago I wrote an essay on the overboughtness in gold and gold stocks. Then gold had just hit $2,374, its ninth nominal record close in just eleven trading days! Euphoria was really mounting then, so my contrarian conclusion wasn’t popular. “...gold is extremely overbought today, warning of high risks for a sharp selloff.” That necessary sentiment-rebalancing process has begun, but is moving in fits and starts.
Gold crested two trading days later at $2,388, and drifted sideways for a few more. Then gold was slammed 2.4% lower on no news on Monday the 22nd, spawning flaring bearishness. Later gold plunged another 1.9% this Tuesday to $2,292. That extended gold’s overall pullback to 4.0% across two weeks, material but not excessive. If gold stocks were behaving normally, GDX should’ve fallen 8% to 12% in sympathy.
Plenty of newsletter subscribers and consulting clients have been writing me worrying gold stocks are due for a sizable selloff. That’s rational based on gold-stock precedent. Yet during those same couple weeks since gold’s last interim high, GDX has actually edged up 0.3%! The gold stocks have been holding their own so far in gold’s pullback, consolidating high. And just one day earlier, they had been looking way better.
During the first nine trading days of gold’s pullback, it fell 2.2%. Amazingly GDX defied that to rally 5.3%! What kind of sorcery is this? Over 2/3rds of GDX’s counter-gold rally came on one trading day, where GDX shot 3.7% higher. That was fueled by the world’s largest gold miner’s Q1 results. Newmont’s stock rocketed 12.5% higher that day after reporting its production last quarter soared 32.3% YoY to 1,680k ounces!
Newmont has always been GDX’s largest holding, weighing in at 12.2% midweek. So one could argue GDX has resisted gold’s pullback mostly because of NEM’s output surge. That’s actually pretty bullish for gold stocks though, because for years hardly anyone even paid attention to gold-stock quarterlies. The fact enough investors were watching to catapult NEM sharply higher proves gold-stock awareness is growing.
But there’s a more-important reason gold stocks are likely to remain way more resilient in gold’s pullback than normal. I discussed this in depth several weeks ago in that overboughtness essay. That analyzed the following updated gold and GDX charts, which include my bespoke Relativity indicator. That divides prices by their 200-day moving averages, and charts the resulting multiples over time illuminating trading ranges.
Over the past half-year or so, gold rocketed vertical in a massive upleg to extremely-overbought levels. The resulting surging greed is why a rebalancing selloff is essential. But the gold stocks have greatly lagged gold’s advance, their parallel upleg staying anemic leaving GDX far from challenging materially-overbought levels. That left gold-stock sentiment fairly-bearish, so the miners have no need to sell off like gold.
After bottoming near $1,820 in early October, gold mean-reverted sharply higher embarking on a new upleg. That powered higher into early December, with gold achieving its first new nominal record close in 3.3 years. Gold had rallied a normal 13.8% in this upleg then, and subsequently mostly consolidated high into late February. There was a mild pullback from late December to mid-February, which grew to 4.2% at worst.
Throughout that entire early-upleg span, gold was nowhere near overbought. At most it merely stretched 6.6% above its 200dma. Relative to that key baseline, gold’s trading range in recent years ran from 0.90x on the oversold side to 1.15x on the high side. Gold hadn’t yet grown overbought by then simply because it hadn’t surged fast enough. Overboughtness happens when prices rally too far too fast to be sustainable.
But boy as March dawned that dramatically changed! After a top Fed official hinted at monetizing more US Treasuries, gold leapt higher. The resulting upside momentum drove gold’s remarkable breakout surge, which wasn’t fueled by gold’s normal drivers. Speculators weren’t flooding into gold futures, and American stock investors weren’t buying gold ETFs. Instead Chinese investors and central banks rushed in...
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Natural Gas Eyes on Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | May 3, 2024
• Natural gas breaks to a new trend high of 2.16, triggering a monthly breakout. It is likely to close strong, hinting at a continuation higher into next week.
Natural gas breaks out to a new trend high of 2.16 on Friday and it is on track to close strong, in the upper quarter of the day’s range. If it does, a continuation higher heading into next week looks to be on the table. The weekly chart is also set to end strong for the second week in a row.
Further, a monthly breakout triggered today on a move above April’s high of 2.09. Today’s high approached a resistance zone from late-January and early-February with a high for the range at 2.17. If that high gets busted, higher price levels become targets.
Improvement in Momentum
Given the improvement in momentum and the likely strong closing price for the week, the initial targets could eventually be exceeded. That is, if demand remains strong. The next target zone begins with the completion of an extended rising ABCD pattern at 2.20. That is where the CD leg of the advance is 127.2% of the AB leg.
Nonetheless, an initial Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% is at 2.24, with that price level confirmed by previous support from the December 11 swing low. If natural gas can get through that price level and keep rising it may have a chance to eventually test resistance around the 200-Day MA, which is currently at 2.47.
Signs of Strength in Monthly Chart
Confirmation of strength on both the monthly and weekly charts provides further evidence for a bullish reversal of the bottom from February. This means that that rally should have more to go, and it may just be getting started. Today’s price action extends an advance off support around the lower blue dash trend channel line.
In general, once prices rise above from support at the bottom of a channel, an eventual target is the top channel line. This doesn’t mean it will be reached, just that it could be. Of course, the price represented by the upper line will depend on when it is reached, given that it is downward sloping. However, given that it is now a potential target, it may make the lower price targets more likely to be reached.
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Natural Gas Eyes on Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | May 3, 2024
• Natural gas breaks to a new trend high of 2.16, triggering a monthly breakout. It is likely to close strong, hinting at a continuation higher into next week.
Natural gas breaks out to a new trend high of 2.16 on Friday and it is on track to close strong, in the upper quarter of the day’s range. If it does, a continuation higher heading into next week looks to be on the table. The weekly chart is also set to end strong for the second week in a row.
Further, a monthly breakout triggered today on a move above April’s high of 2.09. Today’s high approached a resistance zone from late-January and early-February with a high for the range at 2.17. If that high gets busted, higher price levels become targets.
Improvement in Momentum
Given the improvement in momentum and the likely strong closing price for the week, the initial targets could eventually be exceeded. That is, if demand remains strong. The next target zone begins with the completion of an extended rising ABCD pattern at 2.20. That is where the CD leg of the advance is 127.2% of the AB leg.
Nonetheless, an initial Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% is at 2.24, with that price level confirmed by previous support from the December 11 swing low. If natural gas can get through that price level and keep rising it may have a chance to eventually test resistance around the 200-Day MA, which is currently at 2.47.
Signs of Strength in Monthly Chart
Confirmation of strength on both the monthly and weekly charts provides further evidence for a bullish reversal of the bottom from February. This means that that rally should have more to go, and it may just be getting started. Today’s price action extends an advance off support around the lower blue dash trend channel line.
In general, once prices rise above from support at the bottom of a channel, an eventual target is the top channel line. This doesn’t mean it will be reached, just that it could be. Of course, the price represented by the upper line will depend on when it is reached, given that it is downward sloping. However, given that it is now a potential target, it may make the lower price targets more likely to be reached.
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Gold Technical Signals Point to Potential Downside
By: Bruce Powers | May 3, 2024
• Despite holding support around the 50% retracement level, gold faces more technical bearish signs, with a bear flag pattern indicating potential for lower levels ahead.
Although gold reached a new retracement low of 2,277, it continues to find support around the 50% retracement level. It is set to end Friday above the 50% retracement for the third day in a row, which is at 2,289. However, there remains more technical bearish signs than bullish indications currently, as it is in the process of retracing prior gains.
Bear Flag Continuation Potential Remains
A bear flag trend continuation pattern triggered on Tuesday and gold closed weak, near the low of the day and below the prior April 23 (B) swing low. That is a bearish sign indicating that it wants to go lower. However, rather than continue lower following the bearish signal, for the past three days gold has been consolidating around Tuesday’s price range instead. Nonetheless, price patterns are indicating lower support levels will likely be tested before the larger bull trend is ready to resume. An advance above last week’s high of 2,352 (C) would be needed to change that outlook.
Several Lower Targets
The next potential support area below this week’s low is a range of Fibonacci levels from 2,261 to 2,255. But that may be an interim level as the 50-Day MA has not been tested as support since the February 29 symmetrical triangle breakout. Since the 20-Day MA has failed to hold as support, the 50-Day line becomes a target. It is currently at 2,234, and very close to an initial target derived from the bear flag measurements. That pattern indicates a potential target of 2,238. Be aware that April saw support at a low of 2,228.
Support From April at 2,228
If the next lower price zone is to be reached this month, a bearish month signal will have triggered. If that happens, sellers could get more aggressive and drive prices lower. Below the 50-Day line there is the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at 2,212 and a 50% retracement level at 2,208. That would be the price area to watch for support if the 50-Day line is broken followed by April’s low.
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Gold Technical Signals Point to Potential Downside
By: Bruce Powers | May 3, 2024
• Despite holding support around the 50% retracement level, gold faces more technical bearish signs, with a bear flag pattern indicating potential for lower levels ahead.
Although gold reached a new retracement low of 2,277, it continues to find support around the 50% retracement level. It is set to end Friday above the 50% retracement for the third day in a row, which is at 2,289. However, there remains more technical bearish signs than bullish indications currently, as it is in the process of retracing prior gains.
Bear Flag Continuation Potential Remains
A bear flag trend continuation pattern triggered on Tuesday and gold closed weak, near the low of the day and below the prior April 23 (B) swing low. That is a bearish sign indicating that it wants to go lower. However, rather than continue lower following the bearish signal, for the past three days gold has been consolidating around Tuesday’s price range instead. Nonetheless, price patterns are indicating lower support levels will likely be tested before the larger bull trend is ready to resume. An advance above last week’s high of 2,352 (C) would be needed to change that outlook.
Several Lower Targets
The next potential support area below this week’s low is a range of Fibonacci levels from 2,261 to 2,255. But that may be an interim level as the 50-Day MA has not been tested as support since the February 29 symmetrical triangle breakout. Since the 20-Day MA has failed to hold as support, the 50-Day line becomes a target. It is currently at 2,234, and very close to an initial target derived from the bear flag measurements. That pattern indicates a potential target of 2,238. Be aware that April saw support at a low of 2,228.
Support From April at 2,228
If the next lower price zone is to be reached this month, a bearish month signal will have triggered. If that happens, sellers could get more aggressive and drive prices lower. Below the 50-Day line there is the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at 2,212 and a 50% retracement level at 2,208. That would be the price area to watch for support if the 50-Day line is broken followed by April’s low.
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$AAPL $2.8 Million Unusual ITM Calls Most of these orders have been above the ask
By: Cheddar Flow | May 3, 2024
• $AAPL $2.8M Unusual ITM Calls
Most of these orders have been above the ask
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Disney (DIS) Stock Hoping For Another Post-Earnings Pop
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | May 3, 2024
• Disney stock has scored a positive post-earnings reaction in four of its last eight reports
• DIS options traders are betting bullishly ahead of the event
Apple (AAPL) is propping up the Dow to end the week after the tech titan's blowout corporate report. The next blue-chip to step into the earnings confessional will be Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS), set for its quarterly report before the market opens on Tuesday, May 7. Ahead of the event, options traders are betting bullishly, perhaps hoping the stock's recent post-earnings history skews to the upside.
Walt Disney stock closed higher the session after earnings in four of its last eight quarters, but finished positive after its last three, including a 11.5% pop in February. The shares averaged a 6.5% swing, regardless of direction, after their last eight earnings events. This time around, the options market is pricing in a larger post-earnings move of 7.5%.
DIS was last seen trading at $113.79, up 1% on the day. The shares are up 26% in 2024, with their 7% quarterly drawdown finding historical support at the site of that post-earnings bull gap from February. Don't expect much unwinding of pessimism from the blue-chip next week, considering there's only one "sell" rating on the stock, and a slim 1.1% of its total available float is sold short.
Echoing this, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Volatility Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), DIS' 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.30 sits higher than 93% of readings from the past year. But with the equity sporting a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 16 out of 100 -- which indicates consistently realized lower volatility than its options have priced in -- a premium-selling strategy could be the move for the entertainment giant.
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Block (SQ) Stock Higher on Quarterly Beat, Forecast
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | May 3, 2024
• The fintech company plans to buy more Bitcoin (BTC)
• Analysts and options traders are responding to the results
Fintech stock Block Inc (NYSE:SQ) is up 3.8% to trade at $72.98 at last check, after the company announced better-than-expected first-quarter earnings of 85 cents per share on $5.96 billion in revenue. In addition, Block revealed plans to buy more Bitcoin (BTC) and hiked its annual forecast.
Needham raised its priced target to $105 following the results, and TD Cowen adjusted up to $92, both of which are healthy premiums to SQ's current perch. The majority of analysts are bullish on the equity, with 29 of 37 in coverage recommending a "buy" or "strong buy."
Options traders are piling on as well, with 41,000 calls and 23,000 puts exchanged so far -- overall volume that is six times the intraday average amount. The most popular contract is the weekly 5/3 75-strike call.
On the charts, today's pop is losing steam at Block stock's 30-day moving average -- a trendline that acted as resistance for most of April. Nevertheless, the equity still boasts a more than 24% year-over-year lead, and added roughly 53% during the past six months.
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Italy reported 345 Tesla sales and 0.3% market share for April
By: Roland Pircher | May 2, 2024
• Italy reported 345 Tesla sales and 0.3% market share for April.
• 69% Model Y and 29% Model 3
• 5th best first month of the quarter ever and -15% vs. the previous one
• Second best April ever
• Last three months -10.6% vs. November - January
• Year-to-date -23% over same period last year
• Year-to-date is 24% or 2.9/12 of last year's total
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Belgium reported 1,276 Tesla sales and 3.2% market share for April
By: Roland Pircher | May 2, 2024
• Belgium reported 1,276 Tesla sales and 3.2% market share for April.
• Second best first month of the quarter ever and -30% vs. the previous one
• Best April ever
• Second best quarter ever after first month of quarter and -30% vs. the same period last quarter
• Last three months +42.8% vs. November - January
• Year-to-date +59% over same period last year
• Year-to-date is 53% or 6.4/12 of last year's total
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Australia reported 2,077 Tesla sales and 2.1% market share for April
By: Roland Pircher | May 2, 2024
• Australia reported 2,077 Tesla sales and 2.1% market share for April.
• 56% Model Y and 44% Model 3
• 4th best first month of the quarter ever and +88% vs. the previous one
• Second best April ever
• Last three months +90.1% vs. November - January
• Year-to-date +6% over same period last year
• Year-to-date is 32% or 3.9/12 of last year's total
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South Korea reported 1,722 Tesla sales for April
By: Roland Pircher | May 2, 2024
• South Korea reported 1,722 Tesla sales for April.
• 99.6% Model Y
• Second best first month of the quarter ever and +172100% vs. the previous one
• Best April ever
• Second best quarter ever after first month of quarter and +172100% vs. the same period last quarter
• Last three months +72.7% vs. November - January
• Year-to-date +459% over same period last year
• Year-to-date is 48% or 5.8/12 of last year's total
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Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Continues to Look For a Base
By: Christopher Lewis | May 3, 2024
• The silver market has fallen a bit during the week, as we continue to pay close attention to the $26 level, an area that has been important multiple times in the past.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
And you can see that we spent most of the week falling. At this point, we are testing the $26 level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure that has been important multiple times. The $26 level is an area that was previously the top of a major resistance barrier.
But at this point, if we break down below $26, this will just simply be the latest throw over. Alternatively, if we turn around and rally from here, we could see a rather significant move to the upside in silver. Perhaps trying to get back to the crucial $28.50 level. The $28.50 level, of course, is an area that’s been important multiple times going back, so it should not be a huge surprise to see that we have pulled back from there.
That being said, keep in mind silver is not gold and therefore it reacts a little bit differently to a lot of the crosscurrents that currently cause havoc in the markets. Interest rates, of course, have a major influence, but there’s also industrial demand, as silver is considered to be a fairly important industrial metal. Geopolitics can come into play, but silver is basically playing little brother to gold in that argument as well. It’s not really a safety asset, it’s more or less a highly speculative one and therefore much more volatile. Because of this, position sizing is paramount in general, and therefore we have to look at this through a lens of caution more than anything else.
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Crude Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Falls Hard to Test Support
By: Christopher Lewis | May 3, 2024
• The oil markets have fallen a bit during the trading week, as we are now looking for some kind of reason to get long again. Remember, there are a multitude of noisy reasons to be in this market at the moment.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market has plunged for the week, but quite frankly, at this point in time, I think it continues to see a lot of support underneath, as a lot of questions are now being asked about whether or not there is going to be a geopolitical risk premium attached to this market.
I think it’s a huge mistake to take that out and all it would take is one errant headline to send this market straight back up in the air. Typically, this time of year, we do see a bit of a demand increase for crude oil due to driving and flying. And now the questions around jobs have come into the fray.
As of Friday, we saw the US print much less than anticipated. So, the question will be whether or not demand will pick up or fall if the Federal Reserve cuts rates. Typically, that means oil goes higher over the longer term. And although I don’t call for that, I recognize that if we could reach the $80 level and recover that to the upside, we could see buyers come back in.
Brent Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
Brent markets look very much the same, with the $84.50 level being a significant barrier that if we can overcome, I think a lot of traders will get involved and try to run Brent to the $90 level. I have no interest in shorting the oil markets, although it doesn’t look as bullish as it once did. I think this is a situation where if oil starts to fall apart, you’re probably going to have better short trades against other things because if oil falls apart, that means the economic conditions are probably falling apart as well. That being said, I expect a little bit of a recovery, but whether or not we break out to the upside remains to be seen.
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Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Continues to See a Lot of Volatility
By: Christopher Lewis | May 3, 2024
• Gold markets have been all over the place during the course of the week, as we continue to see a lot of noise from various input factors.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
We have fallen rather significantly to break below the $2300 level. At this point we have turned around to show signs of life and the $2300 level I think is going to continue to be a situation where we will have to see if we can recover.
If we can recover from here, then it’s likely that we will make a move to the $2,400 level. In general, this is a market that remains bullish so even though we sold off the way we did, I don’t really have any interest in trying to get involved. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week then it could open up a move down to the $2,200 level. In general, there are a lot of things to worry about when it comes to gold markets and what could be driving them. So do be aware of the fact that we might have a situation where traders start to worry about geopolitical issues, perhaps interest rates. We’ll just have to wait and see.
With the jobs number coming in weaker than anticipated, it looks like people are taking a little bit of a breather, perhaps selling some of the gains in the gold market to finance new positions in places like NASDAQ. We will have to wait and see, but this is obviously a very bullish market, and I don’t need to Look at any indicators to sort this out sooner or later we balance and once we start to bounce, I’m going to be on the other side of it and start buying gold at that point again for a longer-term trade If you like the video, give me a thumbs up and subscribe.
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$NVDA $34 Million worth of bullish premium today, the highest by far
By: Cheddar Flow | May 3, 2024
• $NVDA Back on top of the podium again
$34M worth of bullish premium today, the highest by far
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Play It! The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | May 3, 2024
I was shocked to hear there was gambling going on at Ricks Café and equally shocked to hear that Biden’s price caps on Russian oil have failed. In 2022 the administration of Joe Biden tried to impose a price cap to cut oil revenues for Russia, a major source of funding for its war against Ukraine. Now as my buddy Anas Alhajji points out, the Russian Urals crude price is about $15 above the price cap and is very concerned about who is going to tell Treasury Secretary Yellen or Biden.
Of course if Ms. Yellen or Biden read my report back then, I could have saved them the trouble of putting on the ill-fated price cap in the beginning. I predicted that the price caps would fail and if they asked me, who knows, it could have been the start of a beautiful friendship.
I’m no good at being noble, but it doesn’t take much to see that the problems with price caps are that they never work, and never have worked. People will either find a way around them or if they are truly enforced, it will lead to shortages. You show me a price cap, then I will show you a shortage. Yet the shortage did not happen because the price caps were never enforced.
This week Reuters reported that a group of Western insurers said a Russian oil price cap has become unenforceable and only pushed more ships into joining a shadow fleet, delivering one of the harshest rebukes to the measure that had been meant to cut revenue to the Kremlin. Now there are more calls in congress to lift the Russian oil price caps and try – maybe – some sanctions that might work.
First the Biden administration has been trying to convince people over the last couple of years that the price caps were working. Now it’s clear that they never really did work and I told them that.
Biden’s spendthrift ways of throwing money at the electric car industry, as we said, was doomed to fail and it is failing. Biden’s attacks on the US oil and gas industry and the reversal of many of Trump’s policies on energy was the start of his problems. Killing pipelines, drilling moratoriums and extreme regulations are some of the factors that is causing inflation. His tapping of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for purely political purposes was part of his ill fated energy policy. Biden’s foreign policy in the Middle East by going hard on Saudi Arabia and soft on Iran has had devastating consequences for the globe. Biden’s energy policies may very well be the reason why he could lose his reelection. Maybe he’ll always have Paris. Paris, as in the Paris Climate accord, at least until the next president pulls out of it. Here’s looking at you, kid.
Yet this week it was the Fed that did more to bring down oil prices than anything Biden or Janet Yellen did. This week the story was bigger than expected increase in crude oil supplies, disappointing gasoline demand and real concerns that the Federal Reserve was going to have to induce a recession to get inflation under control. The problems are being complicated by a slowdown in US manufacturing and talk of the possibility of stagflation is permeating the marketplace. This puts emphasis on today’s jobs report. The other thing that we’ve seen in oil this week is the unwinding of geopolitical risk factors. It’s almost amazing to me that oil prices took seriously the possibility that ceasefire talks were going anywhere, but they obviously did.
It’s going to be interesting to see how oil traders will prepare for what may be coming this weekend as many sources believe that Israel will start to move into Rafah this weekend. This comes as the Wall Street Journal reports that, “The Pentagon is shifting jet fighters, armed drones and other aircraft to Qatar, repositioning its forces to get around restrictions on conducting airstrikes from an air base long used by the U.S. in the United Arab Emirates. The U.A.E. informed the U.S. in February that it would no longer permit American warplanes and drones based at Al Dhafra air base in Abu Dhabi to carry out strikes in Yemen and Iraq. That has prompted U.S. commanders to send the additional aircraft to Al Udeid air base in Qatar, the small Persian Gulf monarchy that hasn’t imposed similar restrictions, U.S. officials said.”
Oil should be close to the low and the correction should be over. If the jobs market is not too hot, then the bottom should be in as the risk premium goes back in.
Natural gas is putting up a good fight in the face of an overwhelming supply. Codes for the US domestic natural gas market is in fact that natural gas prices are historically cheap and data centers unquenchable demand for power continues to grow to incredible heights. With the emergence of cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, electricity demand is going to be going through the roof and is it possible that the US natural gas market will be saved by this incredible surge and demand. More on that next week.
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Play It! The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | May 3, 2024
I was shocked to hear there was gambling going on at Ricks Café and equally shocked to hear that Biden’s price caps on Russian oil have failed. In 2022 the administration of Joe Biden tried to impose a price cap to cut oil revenues for Russia, a major source of funding for its war against Ukraine. Now as my buddy Anas Alhajji points out, the Russian Urals crude price is about $15 above the price cap and is very concerned about who is going to tell Treasury Secretary Yellen or Biden.
Of course if Ms. Yellen or Biden read my report back then, I could have saved them the trouble of putting on the ill-fated price cap in the beginning. I predicted that the price caps would fail and if they asked me, who knows, it could have been the start of a beautiful friendship.
I’m no good at being noble, but it doesn’t take much to see that the problems with price caps are that they never work, and never have worked. People will either find a way around them or if they are truly enforced, it will lead to shortages. You show me a price cap, then I will show you a shortage. Yet the shortage did not happen because the price caps were never enforced.
This week Reuters reported that a group of Western insurers said a Russian oil price cap has become unenforceable and only pushed more ships into joining a shadow fleet, delivering one of the harshest rebukes to the measure that had been meant to cut revenue to the Kremlin. Now there are more calls in congress to lift the Russian oil price caps and try – maybe – some sanctions that might work.
First the Biden administration has been trying to convince people over the last couple of years that the price caps were working. Now it’s clear that they never really did work and I told them that.
Biden’s spendthrift ways of throwing money at the electric car industry, as we said, was doomed to fail and it is failing. Biden’s attacks on the US oil and gas industry and the reversal of many of Trump’s policies on energy was the start of his problems. Killing pipelines, drilling moratoriums and extreme regulations are some of the factors that is causing inflation. His tapping of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for purely political purposes was part of his ill fated energy policy. Biden’s foreign policy in the Middle East by going hard on Saudi Arabia and soft on Iran has had devastating consequences for the globe. Biden’s energy policies may very well be the reason why he could lose his reelection. Maybe he’ll always have Paris. Paris, as in the Paris Climate accord, at least until the next president pulls out of it. Here’s looking at you, kid.
Yet this week it was the Fed that did more to bring down oil prices than anything Biden or Janet Yellen did. This week the story was bigger than expected increase in crude oil supplies, disappointing gasoline demand and real concerns that the Federal Reserve was going to have to induce a recession to get inflation under control. The problems are being complicated by a slowdown in US manufacturing and talk of the possibility of stagflation is permeating the marketplace. This puts emphasis on today’s jobs report. The other thing that we’ve seen in oil this week is the unwinding of geopolitical risk factors. It’s almost amazing to me that oil prices took seriously the possibility that ceasefire talks were going anywhere, but they obviously did.
It’s going to be interesting to see how oil traders will prepare for what may be coming this weekend as many sources believe that Israel will start to move into Rafah this weekend. This comes as the Wall Street Journal reports that, “The Pentagon is shifting jet fighters, armed drones and other aircraft to Qatar, repositioning its forces to get around restrictions on conducting airstrikes from an air base long used by the U.S. in the United Arab Emirates. The U.A.E. informed the U.S. in February that it would no longer permit American warplanes and drones based at Al Dhafra air base in Abu Dhabi to carry out strikes in Yemen and Iraq. That has prompted U.S. commanders to send the additional aircraft to Al Udeid air base in Qatar, the small Persian Gulf monarchy that hasn’t imposed similar restrictions, U.S. officials said.”
Oil should be close to the low and the correction should be over. If the jobs market is not too hot, then the bottom should be in as the risk premium goes back in.
Natural gas is putting up a good fight in the face of an overwhelming supply. Codes for the US domestic natural gas market is in fact that natural gas prices are historically cheap and data centers unquenchable demand for power continues to grow to incredible heights. With the emergence of cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, electricity demand is going to be going through the roof and is it possible that the US natural gas market will be saved by this incredible surge and demand. More on that next week.
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Markets Monthly Pattern »» Watchlist - Top 10
By: Marty Armstrong | May 3, 2024
• Dow Jones Industrials Index »» Still Under Pressure
• NASDAQ Composite Index »» New Pattern Forming
• NASDAQ 100 Index »» New Pattern Forming
• S&P 500 Index »» New Pattern Forming
• Russell 2000 Index »» Neutral at this time
• US Dollar Index »» Temp Pause
• CBOE VIX Index »» Turning BACKDOWN
• NY Gold Futures »» New Pattern Forming
• NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Holding
• NY Crude Oil Futures »» Turning BACKDOWN
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$SPX Woah $Millions of Calls
By: Cheddar Flow | May 3, 2024
• $SPX Woah
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$GLD $5+ Million Aggressive OTM Calls (Very Unusual)
By: Cheddar Flow | May 3, 2024
• $GLD $5M+ Aggressive OTM Calls (Very Unusual)
These are abnormally large prints for the Gold ETF and came in above the ask, signaling urgency
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The 10 Top/Bottom NASDAQ 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | May 3, 2024
• Today (8:34 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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Dovish Message Likely To Ignite Positive Wealth Effect From Equities And Home Prices
By: Hedgopia | May 2, 2024
Markets were on pins and needles as to if Powell would be open to the possibility of a rate hike. He hardly sounded hawkish Wednesday. A dovish message hardly helps cool down the positive wealth effect coming from equities and home prices. It could rather be helping inflation remain sticky.
A day prior to the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting, the employment cost index for the March quarter was released, and it came in hotter than expected. Private-industry total compensation increased 4.1 percent from a year ago. The series peaked in 2Q22 at 5.5 percent, which was a 38-year high, and has been north of four percent for 11 quarters now (Chart 1).
This comes on the heels of hotter-than-expected readings in recent months in both the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures. Price increases are not dropping at the rate many had hoped.
Of late, several FOMC members have sounded alarmed by prospects of sticky inflation, with some even stating only one rate cut – at best – was needed this year; the March-meeting dot plot showed FOMC members expected three 25-basis-point cuts. The fed funds rate, after having been raised from a range of zero to 25 basis points in March 2022 to between 525 basis points and 550 basis points through last July, was once again left unchanged this week.
With most economic data coming in stronger than expected of late, markets were nervous if Chair Jerome Powell would open the door to the possibility of a hike, if the need be. He did not, stating in the post-meeting presser that “I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I’d say it’s unlikely.”
When pressed what it would take for them to hike, he said, “I think we’d need to see persuasive evidence that our policy stance is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to two percent over time. That is not what we think we’re seeing.”
On Wednesday, markets were confused, and this was reflected in how equities traded. Stocks took off at 2:30, rallied hard for half an hour until they rolled over at 3:00. The S&P 500 reversed from up 1.2 percent at the session high to down 0.3 percent at close, with a massive shooting star (Chart 2); on Monday, sellers showed up at 50-day moving average.
Deep down, Powell’s body language suggests there is a clear bias toward easing. But they need data to cooperate. Apart from the economy refusing to show signs of deceleration, stocks have rallied huge since last October’s low, adding trillions in market cap, and that helps consumer mood/spending. Ditto with housing. Home prices are rising once again.
In February, using the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, US home prices firmed up 6.4 percent year-over-year. This was the steepest price appreciation in 15 months. In March 2022, prices were rising at a record 20.8 percent, before going the other way. For three months from April through June last year, prices dropped, albeit marginally (Chart 3). Since last July, the growth rate has been in acceleration.
The Federal Reserve has time on its side and likely takes time on rate cuts. One can argue the monetary policy is not restrictive enough to particularly impact equities and home prices, which influence inflation through the wealth effect. A dovish message at a time like this does not help.
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