Replies to post #7211 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[Superfly15]

I don't really understand the thesis behind MNTA, they consistently are bad at delivering shareholder value. Perhaps its my distaste for stocks locked forever in court cases (ex-RMBS). Other than that looks plenty safe to me.

[jbog]

All your "natural resource" picks have woefully under-performed to SP over the time-period of this board.

This board started as a strict "Natural Resource" board and rather than face up to it's failure you've decided to change paths.


‘Big Oil’
XOM
RDS-A
CVX
TOT
COP

Midsized E&P
APC
HES

Mining
BHP
VALE
CLF

Timber
PCL

[rubber duck]

VALE and CAT are my turnaround picks, GLTU.

[DewDiligence]

Participants in PFE-ZTS swap will get 0.9898 shares of ZTS for each share of PFE tendered and accepted; offering is 2x oversubscribed, so PFE shareholders who tendered will get only about half of their tendered shares exchanged into ZTS:

#msg-89180739

[DewDiligence]

Shell building new Nigerian pipeline to bypass high-theft area:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323393804578559323475377146.html

A joint venture led by Royal Dutch Shell PLC said Friday it will invest $1.5 billion on a new pipeline in Nigeria in a bid to reduce oil theft that has caused serious environmental damage in the country and disrupted crude production.

The new pipeline…will "bypass a whole area where there has been a significant quantity of oil theft," in the Ogoniland region… The new pipeline is a loop off the existing Trans Niger Pipeline that will pass through a swampier area, where more of the pipeline will be submerged... This location will make oil theft more difficult and the pipeline will also be protected by stronger intruder-detection technology.

…Shell has said thieves steal an estimated 60,000 barrels a day from its Nigerian joint venture, Shell Petroleum Development Co… a joint venture between Shell, state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corp. and the local units of France's Total SA and Italy's Eni SpA.

Too bad they didn’t decide to do this a few years ago.

[DewDiligence]

HES director bought $630K of stock on 6/21/13 @$63/sh:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4447/000120919113033328/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

p.s. I added HES and DE today.

[DewDiligence]

Added IBM @189.96 on sell-off caused by ACN’s weak quarterly results.

[DewDiligence]

MON provided rough EPS guidance for FY2014 (ending 8/31/14) when it released FY3Q13 results last week:

http://monsanto.mediaroom.com/2013-06-26-With-Third-Quarter-Results-Monsanto-Reaffirms-Ongoing-Earnings-Outlook-Of-Greater-Than-20-Percent-Growth-In-Fiscal-Year-2013-And-Mid-Teens-Growth-For-Fiscal-Year-2014

The company reaffirmed 2013 earnings per share guidance in the range of $4.50 to $4.55 on an ongoing [i.e. non-GAAP] basis, with mid-teens ongoing earnings growth anticipated for fiscal year 2014.

This is the first time MON has ever given EPS guidance for a non-current fiscal year, which is a bullish sign, IMO. Applying a 15% increase to the $4.50-4.55 EPS range for FY2013, the guidance for FY2014 is about $5.20. At the current share price, the P/E based on FY2014 EPS is thus about 19x.

[DewDiligence]

Shell reports successful well in GoM:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gulf-mexico-success-shells-vicksburg-062300955.html

Shell today announces a successful exploratory well at Vicksburg in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The well is located 75 miles (120 kilometers) offshore in the De Soto Canyon Block 393 in 7,446 feet (2,269 meters) of water. It was drilled to a total depth of 26,385 feet (8,042 meters) and encountered more than 500 feet (152 meters) of net oil pay.

In total, the Vicksburg "A" discovery is estimated to hold potentially recoverable resources of more than 100 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe). It adds to the more than 500 mmboe of potentially recoverable resources that have already been discovered and appraised at the nearby Appomattox discovery. Vicksburg "A" is a separate accumulation from both Appomattox and the 2007 Vicksburg "B" discovery.

[DewDiligence]

My Top Picks for Long-Term Buy & Hold (updated)

Since the previous version of this list three weeks ago, I’ve added two names
—ENTA and MRK—and kept all 15 existing names (adding shares to some
of them (e.g. DE, HES, and IBM). So, there are now 17 names on the list.

Below are sample posts for each name. Even for the pre-existing names, I’ve
updated several of these posts, so they’re worth another look.

CLF and VALE have been terrible performers, but I’m holding them on the
thesis that the market’s bearishness toward commodity plays (and iron ore
in particular) is overdone. I think both stocks are likely close to bottoming.

 
 Biotech/healthcare 
 ABT      #msg-87053716  #msg-87053892  #msg-50473238 
 ENTA     #msg-89280314  #msg-89666861  #msg-89280030 
 MNTA     #msg-89519908  #msg-89308088  #msg-70212854 
 MRK      #msg-88261837  #msg-88122327  #msg-88559624 
 PFE      #msg-81127453  #msg-89518539  #msg-87338855 
 XOMA     #msg-89001644  #msg-85514239  #msg-83090054 
  
 Natural resources 
 CLF      #msg-87260717  #msg-88988001  #msg-86532061 
 HES      #msg-88002724  #msg-87217984  #msg-89320207 
 PCL      #msg-83600271  #msg-83602427  #msg-47898395 
 RDS-A/B  #msg-84459871  #msg-86046040  #msg-84124821 
 VALE     #msg-88894147  #msg-89652092  #msg-61404125 
  
 Agriculture and food  
 DE       #msg-60344244  #msg-60344244  #msg-61382266 
 MDLZ     #msg-87046646  #msg-84989239  #msg-80352710 
 MON      #msg-86130866  #msg-89626669  #msg-86643559 
 ZTS      #msg-84129296  #msg-84068724  #msg-84067676 
  
 Technology 
 IBM      #msg-87460673  #msg-87045399  #msg-67607838 
 MMM      #msg-84409832  #msg-81071714  #msg-60356285 

Feedback welcome.